SMU Mustangs (0-0) vs. Nevada Wolfpack (0-0)
August 24, 2024 at 8:00 PM EDT
Line: Nevada Wolfpack +27 / SMU Mustangs -27; Over/Under: +54.5
(Get the latest betting odds)
The SMU Mustangs and Nevada Wolfpack will meet on Saturday night in Week 1 college football action at Mackey Stadium. We'll be looking at this from a betting perspective to determine the best bets for this matchup. Here are our predictions for SMU vs. Nevada.
SMU Team Preview
The SMU Mustangs will make their ACC debut in the 2024 season after going 11-3 in 2023, their most wins in a season since 1982. They also went 8-0 in the conference and won their first AAC title with a 26-14 win over Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. The season ended with a 23-14 loss to the Boston College Eagles in the Fenway Bowl. Preston Stone returns at quarterback after throwing for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions last season, and all of his receiving weapons return, including leading receiver Jake Bailey and tight end RJ Maryland, who was second on SMU's receiving list with seven touchdowns. SMU's backfield also features a three-headed monster in LJ Johnson, Jaylan Knighton and Kamar Wheaton. The defense remains largely intact with 10 of the top 11 tacklers returning and Elijah Roberts, who led the Mustangs with 10 sacks last year, returning at defensive end. The Mustangs also will be aggressive in the transfer portal to bolster their defensive front, with Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker expected to anchor the linebackers and Isaiah Nwokobia and Jonathan McGill expected to be stars in the SMU secondary.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
Nevada has lost each of its last six games against non-conference opponents. SMU has won 11 of its last 12 games against teams not ranked in the AP rankings. Nevada has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 games at MacKay Stadium. SMU has covered the spread in four of its last five season openers.
Nevada Team Preview
The Nevada Wolfpack are looking to start the 2024 season with a bang after finishing 2-10 for the second straight year under head coach Ken Aiken. Jeff Choate joins the team after turning Montana State into an FCS playoff team before taking over the defensive coordinator job at Texas for the past three seasons. Brendon Lewis is the incumbent starting quarterback, but Chubba Purdy comes in from Florida State to compete for the starting spot. Whoever decides to become QB1 will face a daunting task with an entirely new group of receivers. All seven receivers who recorded at least 100 yards receiving for the Wolfpack last season are gone, but Nate Burleson II is healthy and expected to lead Nevada's aerial attack. Sean Dollars and Pat Gerwo are expected to be a one-two punch in Nevada's backfield, with Gerwo coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season at Boston College in 2021. Defensively, Kayden Johnson transferred to lead the Wolfpack's defensive line and Drew Watts returns after lead sack man Marcel Walker-Burgess hit the transfer portal. KK Meyer is expected to lead the secondary at corner, with Kitan Crawford and Keyshawn Cobb likely to be Nevada's pair of safeties this season.
Why the Nevada Wolfpack Will Win
Nevada has won three of its last four season openers as an underdog. SMU has lost six of its last eight games against a non-conference opponent. Nevada has covered the spread in six of its last seven season openers. SMU has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine games against a non-conference opponent.
SMU vs. Nevada predictions
I'm betting on SMU here. The numbers are big for an away game early in the year, but this is essentially an SMU team that was a powerhouse in the AAC last year and is a favorite to turn heads in their ACC debut. They're facing a Nevada team that was a huge disappointment last year and is building from the ground up from day one this season. SMU beat better teams than they'll face here last year, and 8 of their 11 wins last year were by 18 or more points. Nevada got beaten early multiple times last year, losing at home to Idaho, an FCS team, by 27 points. Wow. Big win for SMU.
