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WNBA (1 unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (+100; odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CST, on FOX13
The Mystics barely surpassed that mark on Saturday against a stellar Lynx defense. That makes their home winning streak 11-2 at the half and 10 straight. Ironically, one of the outliers came in Washington's third game of the season against the Storm, before they'd really found their footing heading into the season. But their reliability in the first half at home can't be ignored. Against a Seattle defense that has struggled since the season restart, the Mystics should pull out another win here.
WNBA (0.5 units) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 81.5 (-110, odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CST, on NBA TV
On paper, this doesn't seem like a fair fight considering how well New York played coming off the break, but there are a few factors that lead me to believe Dallas will have enough success offensively to surpass this team total: The Wings easily surpassed this number in their first game back from the Olympic break, holding up 91 points to a very good Connecticut defense.
The key here is the return of Sato Sabari in her first game of the season, and her impact was immediately apparent with 20 points. With their core members back, I think Dallas will be a threat to a team like New York that has gaps in their defense at times. One of those gaps could come in this tough situation, with the Liberty coming off an emotional weekend win in Las Vegas. The Liberty's elite offensive line could help Dallas' scoring, and there's every reason to believe the Wings can surpass this total.
MLB (0.5 units) Cleveland Guardians/NY Yankees 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115; odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT, YES
My rule when the Yankees face a left-handed starting pitcher is to find any way to weaken their offense. New York is 26th in batting average against left-handed pitchers this season, behind teams with better offense like Detroit, Oakland and Colorado. So yeah, things are bad. I wouldn't bet against them at home, but I think their offensive issues will contribute to their slow start here.
Lefty Matthew Boyd will be making his second start in a Cleveland uniform, but he has what it takes to stop the Yankees early tonight. The Guardians will also have a tough time against Luis Gil, who is back in form at home. Gil owns a 2.90 ERA and .167 on-base percentage at Yankee Stadium, allowing just two runs combined in his last three home starts. This matchup has a playoff feel to it with the AL standings at stake, which I think will help keep the lineup quiet early in the game.
Degenerate
There are no corrupters today.
Tiny Nick has earned +97.7 units with the Lock since being in zone coverage.
Each day he presents a lock and a degenerate pick, with lock being the game he is most confident in, and degenerate being the more interesting but riskier pick.
