The 2024 BMW Championship is the last chance for PGA Tour golfers to qualify for the Tour Championship. As the final event of the 2024 PGA Tour season, the Tour Championship is different from other events in that golfers start with a certain number of shots under par based on their FedEx Cup standings. But before a champion is crowned, the 2024 BMW Championship begins Thursday at Castle Pines Golf Club. Is there a golfer in the middle of the standings who can win the 2024 BMW Championship and move up the ranks heading into the final tournament of the PGA Tour season?
Currently sitting atop the standings, Scottie Scheffler is the +320 favorite to win in the latest 2024 BMW Championship odds, followed by Xander Schauffele at +650 and Rory McIlroy at +1000. The event's defending champion, Viktor Hovlan, is 16th in the standings and enters with odds of 18-1, but is he a longshot to include in your 2024 BMW Championship betting? Before locking in any 2024 BMW Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to check out SportsLine's proven computer model golf predictions and projected leaderboards.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been immensely popular since the PGA Tour returned in June 2020. In fact, the model has made over $9,500 on its top bet since the restart, winning tournament after tournament.
This same model had already predicted 13 majors by the end of the week, including the 2024 Masters (a third consecutive Masters), this year's PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed the model has made huge profits.
Now that the field for the BMW Championship 2024 has been decided, SportsLine has simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results are astounding: Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 BMW Championship Golf Predictions
One surprise is that McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the favorites to win, didn't finish in the top five this week. McIlroy struggled at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing tied for 68th and dropping to fifth in the FedEx Cup standings. That final-round blunder at the U.S. Open, combined with missing the cut at the British Open, could haunt McIlroy for the rest of the summer.
McIlroy has only won one of his 13 previous BMW Championship appearances, dating back to 2012. He has three top-five finishes in the past eight BMW Championships, but none in the top three since winning in 2012. Driving distance has not been an issue for McIlroy, ranking second in driving distance this year, but only 83rd in driving accuracy. Putting has been his biggest issue this year, ranking outside the top 40 in total putting and putting average, and 70th in putting strokes gained. McIlroy has always been a popular bet due to his name recognition, and the model just doesn't see value in him at his current price point.
The model also looked at Schauffele's ranking. The Southern California native is currently ranked No. 2 in the world after a strong second half of the season. He won his first major at the PGA Championship in May and also won another major at the British Open. In 2024, Schauffele has a total of 13 top 10s.
Schauffele was primed for a major upset win at last weekend's FedEx St. Jude Championship, but ultimately finished second to Matsuyama. He enters the BMW Championship ranked second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained (2.235 total), scoring average (68.44) and birdie average (4.35) and first overall in scrambling around the greens (70.91%). The model has locked in its Xander Schauffele BMW Championship picks here.
How to choose the 2024 BMW Championship
In addition to revealing where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele rank, the model has identified three golfers with odds of 30 to 1 or better to win. Bet on these longshots and you could hit the jackpot. See the model's predictions exclusively here.
Who will win the 2024 BMW Championship? And which longshot will surprise the golf world? Check out the 2024 BMW Championship odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the BMW Championship projected leaderboard from the model that has won 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
2024 BMW Championship odds, competitors
Get your complete picks, best bets and predictions for the 2024 BMW Championship here.
Scottie Scheffler +320
Xander Schauffele +650
Rory McIlroy +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Viktor Hovland +1800
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Corey Connors +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Wyndham Clark +3500
Lim Sungjae +3500
Cameron Young +4000
Billy Horschel +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Aaron Lai +4000
Russell Henry +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Shane Lowry +4500
Sahith Teegala +4500
Jason Day +4500
Ahn Byung-hun +5000
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Robert McIntyre +5500
Brian Harman +6000
Keegan Bradley +6000
Alex Noren +6500
Will Zalatoris +6500
Taylor Pendris +6500
Max Glaserman +6500
Denny McCarthy +7000
Thomas Detry +7500
Kim Si Woo +7500
Sepp Straka +7500
Tom Hogue +8000
Nick Dunlap +8000
Max Homa +8000
Eric Cole +8000
Cam Davis +9000
Austin Eckroth +9000
JT Poston +11000
Chris Kirk +12000
Adam Hadwin +12000
Stefan Jaeger +12000
Mathieu Pavon +15000
