NFL Preseason Picks
Week 3 of the NFL preseason has gone from “dress rehearsal week” to “final game” in 2021 when the regular season schedule expanded to 17 games. Coaches around the league now have some very important decisions to make. The preseason finale is August 25th, and the regular season starts September 8th for most teams, so there's still time to run into trouble.
Meanwhile, the most important thing heading into Week 1 is player health — many injuries in the NFL are more serious than bruises and bumps — but practice is also important, so some teams will field starters in Week 3 and others won't, resulting in some big swings in the lines.
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Here are some predictions for Week 3 of the NFL preseason.
DraftKings odds as of 4pm ET on Wednesday, August 21st
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San Francisco 49ers (-6, 35) vs Las Vegas Raiders
Friday, 10pm ET
Brock Purdy will play for the 49ers this week, but it remains to be seen how long he and the other first-team players will play for the 49ers. Joshua Dobbs played strong last week against the Saints and seems to be done with his backup role, so it will be interesting to see how long he plays. In the final preseason game, the 49ers will be looking to Brandon Allen and Tanner Mordecai.
The 49ers have been hit with injuries throughout the preseason, with many players canceling joint training sessions with the Titans due to injuries and expecting their 2024 debut to be in Week 1. For a team with aspirations of a Super Bowl appearance and a team with many struggling players, these are big numbers.
On the Raiders' side, Gardner Minshew will win the starting spot with Aidan O'Connell as the backup, but if you were to rank the NFL's QB situations from safest to least safe, the Raiders would be near the bottom of the list. In that respect, there's a lot of incentive for both players to stay focused, especially O'Connell, who went 21-of-29 in the preseason and should see a lot of time here.
The Raiders underperformed in front of their home crowd last week, but I can only imagine they're looking for a bigger effort here, and while the allure of Sin City will no doubt draw some 49ers fans to the game, I'm not convinced San Francisco is going to take too much of a risk on anyone here.
Also, the 49ers have had games with 30 and 26 points so far, and their play calls are often kept secret, so the six points are more valuable in low-scoring games.
Pick: Raiders +6
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 33.5)
Saturday 4pm ET
The Chargers and Cowboys finish their preseason on Saturday, with one team looking a lot more motivated than the other. For Dallas, it will be their only preseason game at Cowboys Stadium. They'll play in front of their home fans before playing on the road against Cleveland. This will be the Cowboys' first game in the Lone Star State, as they're holding their training camp in Oxnard, California, due to the harsh Texas heat, while Los Angeles will be playing on the road for the first time.
Beyond the setting, the performances of the two teams were very different. The Cowboys had a lot of drama in the preseason, but Trey Lance played pretty well. He didn't do much in Game 1 against the Rams, but he did score two touchdowns against the Raiders. Dallas couldn't capitalize on Stetson Bennett's four interceptions, losing on a fourth down play with four seconds left.
The Chargers have scored a combined nine points through two games, with Luis Perez, Max Duggan and Easton Stick completing 35 of 65 passes for 281 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. The quarterback has also completed nine of 46 rushing attempts, making protection and wide receiver separation an issue. Justin Herbert has been bothered by plantar fasciitis and only returned to practice this week.
Jim Harbaugh's disinterest in the preseason and awful QB play seem like enough reasons to discount the Bolts here.
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
New England Patriots (-4, 34) vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, 8pm ET
The Patriots and Commanders will try to get healthy on Sunday night in the 49th and final preseason game of the 2024 season. New England comes into the game with plenty of questions about its quarterback depth with Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe, Joe Milton III and Jacoby Brissett all combining for 90 net passing yards in last week's win over the Eagles.
New England gave up an astounding 2.9 yards per play against the Eagles after recording 4.3 yards per play against the Panthers in Week 1. Obviously, all of these players are motivated enough to go out there and move up the ranks, but they're not playing very well.
On the Washington side, we know No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels will start the season as a key part of the offense, but coach Kliff Kingsbury is running him on city streets instead of the highway. He hasn't hit the gas at all, as the Commanders have run a ton of RPOs to get the ball out quickly. Daniels hasn't gotten much air under the ball, and I can't imagine Jeff Driskel doing much of that here. Marcus Mariota and Sam Hartman were ruled out for last week's game against Miami, so I doubt we'll see either of them here.
New England's offense was awful, but their defense played pretty well overall, and they had a lot of obviously low-scoring games in the preseason, so it wouldn't be surprising to see another low-scoring game.
Pick: Patriots/Commanders 34 and under
