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Scientists have warned that deaths from heat stress and disease in Europe could triple by the end of the century.
The researchers say that if current climate policies continue, heat could become as big a threat to Europeans as cold, which is currently eight times more deadly.
The study, published Thursday in the journal The Lancet Public Health, said southern Europe, including parts of Spain, Italy, Greece and France, is expected to be the hardest hit.
The past two summers have already been the deadliest on record in Europe, and at least 60,000 people are estimated to die from heatstroke in 2022, a new record, while a study published this year predicted the number could reach 43,729 in 2023.
Scientists from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre estimate that under current climate policies, this figure could soar from 43,729 people per year by the end of the century to 128,809 by 2100.
The researchers used data from 1,368 locations across 30 European countries to model temperature-related mortality risks for different age groups and under different global warming scenarios.
The projections are based on a scenario in which global temperature rise reaches 3°C by the end of the century, twice the level targeted by the Paris Agreement, but temperature-related increases in mortality could be significantly reduced if global warming could be limited to lower levels.
The study finds that while cold-related deaths are expected to fall slightly, heat-related deaths are expected to rise sharply, especially in southern Europe. Currently, cold deaths outnumber heat deaths in Europe by about eight times, but this ratio is expected to fall dramatically by the end of the century.
“Our analysis reveals that cold mortality will change dramatically over the course of this century, while heat-related deaths will increase across Europe and sharply increase in some regions,” said Dr Juan Carlos Siscal, lead author of the study.
“At the same time, the number of cold-related deaths overall will fall slightly. Our study looks at more than 1,000 locations across 30 countries, allowing us to identify hotspots where people will be most affected in the future.”
A woman takes a selfie while using an umbrella to avoid the sun during the scorching heat near St. Peter's Square in Rome, Italy (Reuters)
“Global warming will not 'save lives', as some wrong-minded people claim,” said Dr Emma Laurens, climate lead at the Institute for Global Health Innovation at Imperial College London, who was not involved in the study.
“The study estimates that as humans continue to warm the planet, the number of deaths from heatstroke will continue to increase, while the number of deaths from cold will decrease only slightly.”
“We know that a hotter world means more deaths. Every tenth of a degree of warming from fossil fuel burning leads to more deaths from heatwaves, fires, floods and storms caused by climate change, more widespread mosquito-borne diseases, worsening air pollution and a whole host of other climate-related health impacts.”
Studies have warned of growing risks as Europe is already seeing increased intensity of disasters, most notably in Greece, where devastating wildfires have recently ravaged an area the size of Paris near Athens.
The study estimates that in a scenario of a 3°C global warming, temperature-related deaths in Europe could increase by 13.5%, or 55,000 more each year. Older people, especially those aged 85 and over, are expected to bear the brunt of these changes.
Deaths from the common cold are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, at between 25 and 300 per 100,000 people. In contrast, they are lowest in parts of Central and Southern Europe.
Deaths from heatstroke range from 0.6 to 47 per 100,000, with the lowest in the UK and Scandinavia and the highest in Croatia and far southern Europe.
The researchers acknowledged that their study has some limitations, including its focus on urban residents, who are generally exposed to higher levels of temperature stress, especially heat, than their rural counterparts.
“This study is a stark reminder of how many lives are at risk if we don't act fast enough on climate change,” said Dr Madeleine Thomson, head of Climate Impacts and Adaptation at the Wellcome Institute.
“And the projected three-fold increase in heatstroke deaths doesn't tell the whole story. Extreme heat doesn't just kill people, it also causes serious health problems. It has been associated with an increased risk of miscarriage and poor mental health, both areas where more research is urgently needed.”
The study's authors say Europe needs stronger policies to limit global warming and protect vulnerable regions and populations.
While the whole world is warming rapidly, Europe is the continent that is warming the fastest.
Between 2013 and 2022, global average land surface temperatures rose 1.13-1.17°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the warmest decade on record, while land temperatures in Europe rose 2.04-2.10°C.
2023 was the hottest year on record. In fact, a study that estimated historical temperatures before records began found that it was the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere in the past 2,000 years.
Last year's extreme temperatures continued into the middle of this year, with temperatures dropping slightly in July to new records.
Scientists from the European climate change agency Copernicus said the continent had a record number of “extreme heatstroke” days – when the mercury is low but humidity makes temperatures feel like 45C or more.
