Check out the latest F1 odds and my predictions and picks for the Dutch Grand Prix race on Sunday, August 25. Bet on Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc and more.
After a few weeks of summer hiatus, F1 returns to the track this weekend for the Dutch Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN). This is the home race for reigning F1 World Champion Max Verstappen and a track he is extremely fond of, having won all three races there since F1 returned after a 35-year hiatus.
Last year's Dutch Grand Prix was affected by rain, which began falling shortly after the green flag was dropped and quickly turned into a downpour causing chaos. Despite chaos across the grid, Max Verstappen won the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix, matching Sebastian Vettel's record of ninth consecutive win.
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While this season returned from its hiatus, Verstappen still leads the championship standings, with both McLaren and Mercedes challenging Red Bull in recent months, Verstappen has recently fallen behind. This has resulted in Max going four consecutive races without a win, with Mercedes winning three of those and McLaren winning one.
Verstappen remains the favourite to win at Zandvoort, with Lando Norris close behind. The circuit features some of the steepest banking in F1 and is tough on the tyres, so Pirelli will be bringing their hardest compound this weekend. The few straights and fewer corners will favour McLaren the most, as I think they have the best car for this weekend.
As of Thursday, here are the F1 odds to win the Belgian Grand Prix according to DraftKings:
Driver OddsMax Verstappen +165Lando Norris +175Oscar Piastri +550Lewis Hamilton +850George Russell +1100Charles Leclerc +2000Carlos Sainz Jr. +2800Sergio Pérez +3500Daniel Ricciardo +10000Nico Hulkenberg +25000Fernando Alonso +25000Alexander Albon +25000Yuki Tsunoda +30000Lance Stroll +30000Esteban Ocon +30000Pierre Gasly +30000Kevin Magnussen +40000Valtteri Bottas +40000Zhou Guanyu +50000Logan Sargent +50000
F1 odds: Dutch Grand Prix predictions and forecasts
Lando Norris wins
As I said above, I expect McLaren to be the best this weekend – it's always difficult to predict where a team will rank after the summer break, but judging by recent performances, they should be hard to beat on this type of track.
There are no long straights at Zandvoort this weekend, so McLaren's high drag should not be too much of an issue for the team.
Additionally, their strengths in high-speed cornering compared to Red Bull, who have a more balanced car, should come into play and help them.
Hungary is one of the closest recent races to Zandvoort, where McLaren dominated to take the top two spots on the podium.
This expectation is already priced into most of the market, and while the odds of either Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri finishing on the podium are slim and generally not worth much, I think it's worth betting on Norris to win the race.
At the time of writing, you can find this bet at some sportsbooks with odds of +200. He has the second-best odds to win the race behind Verstappen, but I consider Verstappen the favorite to win the race. This is not a hugely valuable longshot bet, but I think this line is worth betting on if you shop around and find a good line.
Cody Goggin Predicts: Lando Norris to Win (+200 at Caesars Sportsbook) | Bet at +180
Charles Leclerc Top 6
Mercedes and Red Bull are grouped together as the next best teams on the grid, but I think Ferrari is closer to those two teams than many people are talking about these days.
The two Ferrari drivers ranked 4th and 6th in race pace at the most recent race in Belgium. They also placed 4th and 6th just before that on a more similar track in Hungary. Charles Leclerc was only 0.01 seconds per lap faster than Verstappen and 0.06 seconds per lap slower than Lewis Hamilton in Sunday's race. Carlos Sainz was also only slightly off their pace, with a median lap time only 0.01 seconds per lap slower than Verstappen.
There are a few ways to bet on the Ferrari drivers in this race, and I think they are all worthwhile. A low-risk bet would be to bet on Leclerc to finish in the top six at -175. He is the fastest of the two Ferrari drivers, and I believe he has the ability to achieve this.
I also think there is some value in the possibility of both drivers finishing on the podium. The odds of Sainz making the podium are high at 9/1 (+900), but given Leclerc's recent performance against Sainz, I will bet on Leclerc making the podium with a smaller unit size than a podium bet. Hard Rock Sportsbook has Leclerc on the podium at the highest price in the market at +700, with FanDuel close behind at +650.
Cody Goggin predicts: Charles Leclerc finishes in the top six (-175 on ESPN BET, bet -200) | Charles Leclerc finishes on the podium (+700 on Hard Rock, bet +550)
Racing Bulls Best of Bottom 5
Haas has emerged as one of the leading teams at the back of the pack this season, ranking seventh in the constructors' standings, with their main rival for the points being the Racing Bulls of Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo.
Haas has the lowest drag car on the grid, which helped them a lot in Belgium, but they won't benefit as much here, rather I believe the RB team will have an advantage here and be the best of the other teams.
In Hungary, Tsunoda was 11th and Ricciardo 12th in race pace, there was still a gap between them and Aston Martin, but they were the fastest team outside the top five.
I believe RB can replicate this success at a similar track, and currently they have a slight edge over Haas as the team to win races outside of the top five, so I’d back them at +120.
Additionally, in my opinion these drivers should be considered roughly equal in terms of speed, but Tundra is tied with Hulkenberg as the highest ranked driver outside of the top 5 teams at +185, while Ricciardo is only at +550. With such a large gap between teammates, it is conceivable that Ricciardo could beat his teammate and other drivers in the midfield.
Cody Goggin's picks: Racing Bulls to win the race without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari or Aston Martin (+120, bet +110 on DraftKings) | Daniel Ricciardo to win the race without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari or Aston Martin (+550, bet +250 on DraftKings)
About the Author
Cody Goggin is a freelance contributor for Action Network. He specializes in handicapping the NFL, MLB and motorsports. Prior to joining Action in 2022, he worked for FTN and Student Union Sports.
Follow Cody Goggin @codygoggin on Twitter/X.
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