The college football season has officially begun with non-conference play against new ACC members and Mountain West programs in the Silver State. The SMU Mustangs will open their 2024 campaign on Saturday night against the Nevada Wolfpack. SMU finished the 2023 season with an 11-3 record and was 8-0 in its final season in the AAC. The Mustangs lost 23-14 to Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. Nevada struggled last season, going 2-10 and 2-6 in the Mountain West, but will be looking to bounce back this season. The two teams have split their six previous meetings, with the Mustangs winning the last two, including a 45-10 victory at home in their most recent matchup on Dec. 24, 2009, at the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu.
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SMU plans to start transition year on a positive note
SMU achieved its first double-digit winning season since 2018 and second since 1984 last season under second-year coach Rhett Lashlee, going 11-3 overall. The Mustangs went a perfect 8-0 in the AAC and beat Tulane in the AAC Championship Game before ending the year on a down note with a loss to Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. Now the program joins the ACC and is expected to finish in the top half of the bloated conference, but few expect it to compete with the powerhouse programs that have called the conference home for years. Returning seven offensive starters and six defensive starters from last season should be a big encouragement for the school in its first year in the conference.
The Mustangs finished the 2023 season ranked 22nd in the FBS in passing attack with an average of 278.4 yards per game and 40th in rushing attack with 175.9 yards per game. SMU ranked 8th nationally in scoring attack, allowing 38.7 points per game, and 11th in scoring defense, allowing 17.6 points per game. Preston Stone returns as the starting quarterback after completing 206 of 344 passes for 3,194 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. He missed the final two games of last season with a fractured left fibula, but added 198 yards and four scores on the ground. Kevin Jennings (61-of-105 completions for 618 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, 142 yards rushing, touchdown) will be the backup. SMU will field a three-headed running attack with the return of Jaylon Knighton (136 carries, 745 yards, seven touchdowns), LJ Johnson Jr. (108 carries, 576 yards, four touchdowns) and Kamar Wheaton (83 carries, 410 yards, five touchdowns).
Jake Bailey returns to lead the passing game after catching a team-high 42 passes for 528 yards last season. Starting guards Romello Brinson (28 catches, 431 yards, two touchdowns), Moochie Dixon (25 catches, 441 yards, four touchdowns), Jordan Hudson (30 catches, 425 yards, seven touchdowns), Keyshawn Smith (25 catches, 392 yards, three touchdowns), Roderick Daniels Jr. (24 catches, 370 yards, four touchdowns) and tight end RJ Maryland (34 catches, 518 yards, seven touchdowns) all return, providing plenty of experienced targets. Collin Rogers returns as kicker after completing 66 of 67 extra point attempts and 20 of 27 field goal attempts with a longest of 51 yards.
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Wolfpack hoping for better luck in 2024
Nevada struggled both defensively and defensively last season, and considering those facts, it's not surprising they finished 2-10 overall and 2-6 in the conference. The Wolfpack went a miserable 4-20 in two seasons under Ken Wilson, but now they're turning to Jeff Choate. Choate was head coach at FCS Montana State from 2016-2020 and was co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach at Texas the past three seasons. The team Choate inherited has acquired many players with Power Five conference experience, but not much experience with the system. Nevada returns only eight starters from last season's team, four each on defense and in the conference, and expectations are low for Reno this season. The team is expected to play New Mexico for last place in the Mountain West.
Last season, the Wolfpack ranked 111th nationally in passing attack with 175.2 yards per game and 98th in rushing attack with 124.8 yards per game. The Wolfpack was tied for 124th in the FBS in scoring attack with 17.8 points per game and tied for 114th in scoring defense with 33.4 points per game. Brendon Lewis completed 131 of 236 passes for 1,313 yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions while also finishing with 120 carries for 495 yards and four scores, second on the team. He beat out Chubba Purdy (31-of-57 for 382 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions at Nebraska) and AJ Bianco (45-of-82 for 614 yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions, 183 rushing yards and a touchdown) for the starting spot, at least in Week 0. Shawn Dollars is the system's lead back with 151 carries for 527 yards and six touchdowns. Ashton Hayes (30 carries, 102 yards) and Patrick Gerwo III (52 carries, 270 yards, a touchdown at Boston College) are also candidates.
None of the team's top four receivers from last season are back, meaning freshmen Nate Burleson II, Marshawn Brown, Daijon Coleman and Cameron Cook will be on the radar to see if they can contribute right from the get-go, along with Cortez Braham Jr. (three catches, 17 yards at West Virginia) and Charles Brown (22 catches, 297 yards and three touchdowns at Texas State). Tight end Jace Henry (13 catches, 152 yards and a touchdown at Dartmouth) could also be a factor. With the departure of kicker Brandon Talton, Matthew Killam, the team's kickoff specialist, will take over kicking duties. Killam has made 10 of 11 extra point attempts and 3 of 5 field goal attempts, with the longest being 48 yards, in his career.
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Best bets on SMU vs Nevada
Full Game Side Bets
Insider Status:
evaluation:
Nevada is at home, but with a new coach, new receivers and a slew of new starters on both the defensive and defensive lines, it will be a tough road. The Wolfpack are the second-biggest underdog in school history at home since 2000, and it will be tough here. These types of games have worked against Nevada. They are 1-5 ATS at home in games where they have scored at least 20 points, and 4-15 (8-11 ATS) in their 19 home games as double-digit underdogs. SMU will move to a new conference, but facing a rebuilding program will give them an advantage. The Mustangs return a slew of experienced players on both the defensive and defensive lines. Expect SMU to take control of the game early and win handily in their season opener.
Prediction: SMU Mustangs -24.5
Full Game Total Picks
Insider Status:
evaluation:
SMU finished last season with an 8-6 record in 14 games played with the under. The Mustangs started the year with 5 under in their first six games and went over in five of their final six regular season games, but remained under in their losses in the AAC Championship Game and Bowl Game. On the road, SMU went over in four of their seven road tilts and went over in each of their final four games. Nevada tied the over in 12 total games last season and went over in each of their final three games. The Wolf Pack tied the over in six games played at home, falling short of that mark in their only home game against a powerhouse conference school, a loss to Kansas. Expect them to come in just short of that mark in this game as SMU slows down in the second half.
Prediction: 56.5 or less
Chris King, “Chris King”
