In the last few years, Americans have begun to realize what most Europeans and many East Asians have realized over the past decade: we are in the midst of a global baby bust.
Birth rates are falling in almost every country. Many countries are experiencing population decline.
Total fertility rate is the most important indicator of birth rates. It is a modeled number that calculates how many babies each woman will have in her lifetime. All wealthy countries except Israel have a total fertility rate below 2, as do China and India, which means that these countries are not replacing their adult populations.
A total fertility rate of 2.1 is commonly accepted as the “replacement level”. A population with a total fertility rate of 2.1 will maintain a stable population in the absence of net immigration. A total fertility rate lower than 2.1 will result in a declining population in the long run. A total fertility rate higher than 2.1 will result in a growing population in the long run.
According to the United Nations, the global total fertility rate in 2023 will be 2.25, a decline of 12% in just 10 years. If this rate of decline continues, the global total fertility rate will fall below 2.1 in just a few years. The UN projects that the current decline in the total fertility rate will slow, with the rate remaining at 2.2 in 2030.
But according to one economist, even if the birth rate stops declining and stabilizes at current levels, the population may still be destined to continue to decline.
Jesús Fernández Villaverde argues, first, that the current TFR is probably lower than the UN estimates, and second, that the actual replacement level is higher than 2.10.
The UN figures are estimates and do not match census figures, Fernández wrote.
“In many places with reliable records, births last year were 10 to 20 percent lower than the UN estimate. In Colombia, the UN estimated 705,000 births, but the country's national statistics institute counted 510,000.”
Fernandez estimates that the actual TFR in 2024 will be 2.18.
Fernandez argues that this is below replacement level, since the actual number of births needed to maintain the population is 2.21, not 2.10.
“The replacement fertility rate of 2.1 applies to the UK, not the world. The figure 2.1 is arrived at by doing some math. In the UK, 1.06 boys are born for every girl. To get to the average of one girl, 2.06 children need to be born overall. Next, look at the probability of a woman surviving to reproductive age. In the UK, this probability is 0.98. To find the fertility rate, divide 2.06 by 0.98, which gives you 2.1.”
“But in many developing countries, the number of women who survive to reproductive age is low. Globally, that figure has fallen to 0.94. So the replacement fertility rate needed worldwide is at least 2.1.”
“Many countries have high sex ratios, often due to selective abortions. In China it is about 1.15, in India it is 1.1. The estimated global sex ratio is 2.08. To estimate the global replacement fertility rate, divide 2.08 by 0.94, which gives you 2.21 children per woman.”
A third reason to be skeptical of the UN's projections is that they, like many demographers, assume that declining fertility will stabilize. I believe this is based on the teachings of Thomas Malthus, who argued that fertility is self-correcting: high fertility creates poverty, which leads to lower fertility, which leads to higher productivity, which leads to wealth, which leads to higher fertility.
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Recent decades have shown the opposite: Lower birth rates lead to lower birth rates. As I often say, cultures with fewer children are cultures that do not welcome children.”
All these revisions to official estimates taken together suggest that world population will decline in the near future.
