The BMW Championship is on travel day after finishing second in a rough round at Castle Pines. Friday saw more of the same thing I saw when I spent 48 hours on the course early last week. I expected a ton of wedges, soft conditions and a steady stream of birdies.
That's exactly what we saw in the second round. We expect the course to firm up a bit over the weekend, and scores will drop a bit, but 20 under par still seems like a good barometer. Unless the wind is strong, this course is still vulnerable. Below we'll take a look at both the leaderboard and odds board and try to find a winner heading into the weekend. Now, let's move on to our predictions for the third round of the BWM Championship.
Adam Scott: -13 (+160)
Keegan Bradley: -10 (+550)
Ludwig Aberg: -9 (+360)
Alex Noren -8 (+1400)
Taylor Pendris -7 (+2000)
Lim Sung-jae -6 (+2500)
Corey Connors -6 (+2500)
BMW Championship Round 3 picks, bets
Collin Morikawa Top 10 (-110)
Anyone who has watched or bet on Collin Morikawa this week is probably feeling pretty frustrated. Morikawa enters the weekend at -4 after two 70s. It's fair to say he has a lot left to do. Looking at his performance, you can see he's lost strokes on and around the greens. Morikawa ranks 13th in the field in tee shots and 5th in approach shots. Meanwhile, he ranks 47th around the greens and 30th in putting. In a field of 50, that's not a good result.
His play on the back nine of the second round was outstanding, shooting 31 and scoring four consecutive birdies. He seemed to find something on the greens and has some great momentum heading into the weekend. Morikawa is still in position to win this tournament and these are great numbers to get into the top 10.
Ludvig Aberg wins (+360)
We bought Ludvig Aberg's pre-tournament tickets at +2800 and are ready to double down. Nobody in the field has had more birdies than the young Swede. After 36 holes, Ludvig has 16 birdies or better, a 44% birdie or better percentage. But too many silly mistakes have cost him. Ludvig made consecutive double bogeys on Thursday, including one where he swung the ball from 110 yards out. He said Thursday's mistake was an “aggressive mistake,” but he's OK with it. And he's clearly written it off on Friday. Any golfer who wants to have a breakout moment needs to have “the moment.” We may be in the middle of Ludvig's moment. Why not take the lead at 4-1?
Justin Thomas Top 20 (+1200)
The only thing that's hurting Justin Thomas is his putter. He's near the bottom in strokes gained putting and I think he's only going to go up from here. A lot of golfers will be playing seriously this weekend but Thomas knows he needs to keep his foot on the gas. Thomas is hitting the ball average but his play this week has been great. Expect Thomas to keep hitting to the flag and hopefully roll a few more putts. Worth a shot at 12-1.
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About the Author
Matt Gannon writes golf previews for The Action Network. He owns and operates JerzWayBetting.com, where he writes and calculates handicaps on a variety of sports. Prior to Action, he worked at SGPN, Fantasy Points and FanShare Sports.
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