Welcome to “The Opening Pitch,” a column we'll be delivering to you daily throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
At Opening Pitch, our goal is to highlight our daily predictive edge on MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets, provide betting notes and analysis, and deliver our free MLB expert picks every day, giving you the best insight and recommendations on every match.
My predictions for all of Saturday's MLB games can be found in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the match pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, August 24th.
Saturday MLB predictions, expert predictions, odds, preview for today, August 24
Kenny Ducey's MLB Astros vs Orioles predictions, picks and preview
Bet: Under 8.5 (-120) | Play until under 8 (-110)
Framber Valdez (Astros, LHP) vs. Albert Suarez (Orioles, RHP)
I have very strong opinions about pitchers and teams, but I'm always willing to make concessions when I'm proven wrong, and I will do that on Saturday against Framber Valdez, who is pitching too well right now to be ignored.
Valdez hasn't been my favorite pitcher to bet on over the past few seasons, which I felt was understandable given his steady decline in production, but that's changed this season as his ground ball rate has improved to 60.1%, and over the past month and a half, his expected batting average has dropped to .237.
Since the start of July, Valdez has posted an impressive 2.24 ERA and .199 xBA. His hard-hit rate has dropped to just 40%. Not great, but solid compared to his hard-hit rate of around 46% over the past two seasons. The most shocking part of this run is his 32% strikeout rate, an area where Valdez has never dominated (23.5% career).
It's worth noting that the only power hitters Valdez faced during that span were the Dodgers, but the Orioles haven't been at their best over the past two weeks, with their home run-to-fly ratio plummeting and strikeouts starting to pile up.
The Orioles have been lacking in power lately, and while they have put up strong numbers against left-handed pitchers, they have struck out in 23.6% of their at-bats this split (20.8% against lefties), which should make it a little easier to write them off. Baltimore is also noticeably worse against ground ball pitchers than fly ball pitchers, ranking 13th in OPS against pitchers like Valdez compared to 8th against fly ball pitchers.
I'm comfortable with Valdez keeping Baltimore in check, but I'm not going to use Houston here because I trust Albert Suarez, who has been great this season between the bullpen and the starting rotation, batting .248 against full fly balls.
The opposite is true for the Astros, who are much more favored to face pitchers who hit ground balls given that they are 13th in OPS against fly ball pitchers, but second in splits. This team has boasted some serious power over the past two weeks, but they'll be facing a weak fly ball pitcher in a ballpark where home runs aren't common, so this game should be low scoring.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-120) | Play until under 8 (-110)
Kenny Ducey's Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions, picks and preview
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-106) | Play until -120
Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks (RHP)) vs. Cutter Crawford (Red Sox RHP)
Unlike the pitcher matchup above, it's hard to wax poetic about these pitchers. Gallen has stagnated the past two seasons after flashing elite talent in 2022, while Crawford has looked disappointing after a red-hot start in 2024.
But unlike the games above, here you're very much stuck on which side to choose.
Arizona is a team that has been hitting well over the last month and a half, so it's hard not to like them. Their isolated power over the past week is still strong at .184, with a strikeout rate of 19.2% and a walk rate of 9.8%. Their power has dipped a bit over the past seven days in Tampa and Miami, but this team is still outstanding in terms of hitting, hitting .260 in that time.
It's unclear how the Diamondbacks are doing without Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, but it's hard to ignore that this team is still hitting the ball hard and hitting home runs frequently, and they're now stepping into a much better ballpark to do so with Crawford, who has really struggled over the last month and a half.
The right-hander has allowed two home runs in his past three starts, but he's also pitched against at least one underpowered team in favorable conditions like Kauffman Stadium or Camden Yards. Prior to that, he allowed an astounding 12 home runs in three starts, so the Diamondbacks are almost guaranteed to hit at least one home run against him.
A strikeout stalwart like Crawford usually deals with these issues and finds reprieve against teams that struggle with contact, but that hasn't been the case in Arizona so far. Given Crawford's struggles with strikeouts, I think the Diamondbacks have a good chance of scoring in this one.
I think those totals are accurate given Gallen's mediocrity (he's been really bad this month), but I'm not sure I can get behind them as a team that thrives on slamming the ball into the stands. The right-hander hasn't allowed a home run in six straight games and has shown some improvement in the walk department, so I think Gallen is the better of the two pitchers on Saturday night.
This game should be a hard-fought one, and at this point, Arizona is the only team that can win a game like this, especially away from home.
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-106) | Play until -120
Kenny Ducey's Tigers vs. White Sox predictions, picks and preview
Bet: Under 7.5 (-108) | Play until -120
Tarik Skubal (Tigers, left-handed pitcher) vs. Kai Bush (White Sox, left-handed pitcher)
I've been picking and choosing times over the past two weeks to play the White Sox as a largely unexpected opponent, and I have to admit that was exactly my initial thought here.
That was until I came to my senses and speculated that the team with the worst wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this year would not be hitting likely American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
Sure, the White Sox are arguably the worst offense in baseball on any given split, but their ISO is even more troubling against lefty pitchers, dropping 18 points to .111. Their strikeout rate is also up nearly a percentage point to 24.8% on the same split, which is enough to be confident that Skubal will continue to perform well going forward, having allowed just two runs on six hits over his past two starts and putting up even better numbers in the strikeout department.
The bigger question is about rookie Kai Bush. He's certainly not a very attractive pitcher. What we know about him is that he does his best to walk just about every batter, but when you face a team like the Astros (who held Bush to the mound last time they pitched) who hates walks, that makes him a little easier to deal with.
Detroit's walk rate of 7.5% ranks 24th in baseball this season. Over the last seven days, their walk rate is just 5.1% and their strikeout rate is a dismal 31.3%. While the numbers don't show much of it through three starts, Bush's strikeout rate could be on some upside, making this a fascinating matchup given recent trends.
The Tigers have also struggled against left-handed pitchers this year, posting an ISO of just .135 against lefties compared to a .157 ISO with reverse splits. This isn't surprising considering the team's best hitter, Riley Green, is at a big disadvantage in the platoon, averaging .208 against lefties. Detroit also benched Kelly Carpenter, arguably the team's second-best hitter against lefties.
Bush will likely navigate the Tigers' offense and get us to the under, while Skubal is pushing for a compelling matchup.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-108) | Play until -120
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Kenny Ducey's MLB Predictions and Forecasts for Saturday, August 24th
In this article, we provide expert MLB picks and predictions and highlight the availability of free MLB picks to help you get through the long MLB season and make the most of your betting opportunities.
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Under 8.5 (-120) | Play until 8 (-110)Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-106) | Play until 120Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Under 7.5 (-108) | Play until 120
About the Author
Kenny Ducey, a leading expert on tennis betting and MLB handicapping, has developed an online following through his work with the Tennis Channel and his experience covering baseball for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. With over a decade of experience that includes covering the New York Knicks and Yankees for Fordham University's WFUV Radio, Ducey writes betting previews for the Action Network and is a digital contributor to the Tennis Channel. He has also worked for NBC Sports and DraftKings.
Follow Kenny Ducey @kennyducey on Twitter/X.
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