This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth and final Grand Slam of 2024 begins Monday, August 26 from the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, New York. With three of the biggest names on the men’s side in the top half of the U.S. Open draw, defending champion Novak Djokovic will look to capitalize on landing in the softer bottom half, though Carlos Alcaraz is still the pre-tournament favorite as he looks to tack on a third consecutive Grand Slam trophy to his titles at the French Open and Wimbledon. The usual suspects are also favored in the women’s draw, led by top seed Iga Swiatek, but there are plenty of Americans eyeing deep runs, led by No. 3 seed and defending champion Coco Gauff.
Before we get to the U.S. Open favorites, contenders and sleepers, let’s acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Andy Murray retired at the Olympics, and Rafael Nadal may not be far behind him, as the Spanish legend won’t partake in this tournament. Cameron Norrie (forearm) and Nick Kyrgios (wrist) will also sit out on the men’s side. Ons Jabeur (shoulder) announced Thursday that she won’t play, joining Marketa Vondrousova (hand), Sorana Cirstea (foot) and Jennifer Brady (knee) on the sidelines, while Petra Kvitova and Belinda Bencic are both on maternity leave.
After each player’s name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook (Caesars) in that order. These odds have been updated as of Friday afternoon. The odds can vary substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
U.S. Open Picks: Men’s Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz (DK: (+200), FD: (+200), BetMGM: (+200), Caesars: (+160)) – Hard court is starting to look like Alcaraz’s worst surface considering the 21-year-old phenom won Grand Slam titles on both clay and grass this year and is “just” 13-3 on hard courts this year, including a loss to Gael Monfils in Cincinnati this month that Alcaraz described as the worst match of his life. The conditions are a bit slower at the U.S. Open than Cincinnati or Australia, though, and Alcaraz has already proven he can win here, having claimed the title in 2022. Alcaraz got no favors as far as the draw is concerned in his pursuit of a third consecutive Grand Slam title. The third-seeded Spaniard finds himself in the same half of the draw as rival Jannik Sinner for a third consecutive Grand Slam, and he could face dangerous big-serving lefties Denis Shapovalov and Jack Draper — the latter of whom has a win over Alcaraz this year — consecutively in Rounds 2 and 3. Things only get harder from there, with 16th-seeded American Sebastian Korda as his chalk fourth-round opponent, then No. 7 seed Hubert Hurkacz or No. 10 Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals before a possible semifinal showdown with Sinner and final against Djokovic. At the end of the day, any match Alcaraz plays is ultimately his to lose, as his mix of speed, power and finesse is unparalleled.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic (DK: (+240), FD: (+230), BetMGM: (+225), Caesars: (+190)) – Djokovic’s first two matches should be pretty straightforward, which is just what the doctor ordered as the defending U.S. Open champion adjusts to hard courts in his first action since beating Alcaraz to win the Olympic gold medal on clay three weeks ago. Potential third-round opponent Alexei Popyrin pushed Djokovic to a four tight sets at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, and the Aussie subsequently broke through for his first career Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open earlier this month, but Djokovic would still be heavily favored in that match. His fourth-round draw will likely be either Ben Shelton or Frances Tiafoe, both of whom are big-hitting Americans that reached the U.S Open semifinals in the last two years. Sixth-seeded Andrey Rublev is his chalk quarterfinal opponent and fourth-seeded Zverev is the chalk semifinal foe for the No. 2 seed, while all three of Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev ended up in the other half of the draw. While Djokovic is likely to be a factor in the later rounds as usual, it bears mentioning that he hadn’t reached a final all year prior to winning the Olympics, so the 37-year-old legend is still more vulnerable than he has been in years past.
Jannik Sinner (DK: (+370), FD: (+380), BetMGM: (+300), Caesars: (+275) – Sinner shouldn’t have much trouble reaching the Round of 16, where he could face 14th-seeded American Tommy Paul, who reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon this year and semifinals of last year’s Australian Open. Things get significantly tougher after that, though, as he could face Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic consecutively from the quarterfinals onward. Besides the tough draw down the stretch, a couple other factors could also hold the top-seeded Italian back. Sinner injured his hip earlier in the year, and while it didn’t prevent him from winning the Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati leading up to this tournament, Sinner was moving at less than 100 percent in his semifinal and final wins over Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe, respectively.
Sinner also came under fire recently after revelations of two positive tests for less than a billionth of a gram of the banned substance clostebol in March. Though he made a convincing case that the substance inadvertently entered his body due to an over-the-counter spray used by his fitness trainer and isn’t expected to receive further punishment, Sinner has been docked the 400 ranking points he received from Indian Wells, and his situation still drew the ire of certain players such as Nick Kyrgios and Shapovalov, who argue he got preferential treatment by having two appeals fast-tracked to the top of the list so he could play in Miami and Madrid, which helped him reach the No. 1 ranking. Sinner also benefited from the unusual approach of the positive tests being kept quiet about until after the investigation concluded, so the fallout from the whole situation may weigh on him in his first tournament since this fiasco became public knowledge.
Alexander Zverev (DK: (+1000), FD: (+950), BetMGM: (+800), Caesars: (+800)) – Zverev is really milking the benefit of surpassing Medvedev in the rankings. The fourth-seeded German has No. 8 seed Casper Ruud or No. 12 Taylor Fritz as potential quarterfinal opponents, Djokovic in the semis and one of Alcaraz/Sinner/Medvedev in the final, while Medvedev would likely have to go through the world’s three best players consecutively to win this title. The three other seeds in Zverev’s section are No. 15 Holger Rune, No. 18 Lorenzo Musetti and potential third-round opponent No. 29 Francisco Cerundolo, so the 6-foot-6 German definitely got the best draw on paper out of the title contenders. Zverev’s 23-8 hard-court record in 2024 includes a semifinal result at the Australian Open, where he beat Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, and Zverev reached the French Open final on clay, so he can certainly go toe-to-toe with anybody on any surface. In order to finally claim that elusive first Grand Slam title, Zverev will need his serve and sometimes-shaky forehand to be at their best in this tournament’s second week.
Daniil Medvedev (DK: (+1600), FD: (+1600), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1200)) – Fabian Marozsan isn’t the most comfortable second-round draw given the young Hungarian’s propensity to step up against top competition, but Medvedev’s fate here will be determined more by the ability to snap out of his funk after surprisingly losing his first match at both hard-court Masters 1000 events this month. If Medvedev can find his game, expect the fifth-seeded Russian to get through a section that includes No. 11 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 19 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime and make it to a quarterfinal rubber match against Sinner, who beat Medvedev in the Australian Open final this year before Medvedev got revenge in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Medvedev reached the final of last year’s U.S. Open and has played in the championship match of five of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams, though he has only one title to show for his efforts (2021 U.S. Open). Beating Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic consecutively to win another is an awfully tall order, and that’s what Medvedev faces due to dropping out of the top four.
There is a major drop-off from the top five to the secondary contenders, led by Andrey Rublev (DK: (+4000), FD: (+3800), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+5000)), Taylor Fritz (DK: (+6500), FD: (+6500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+4000)), Holger Rune (DK: (+6500), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+5000)) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (DK: (+8000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+6600), Caesars: (+5000)).
Rublev beat Sinner en route to the final of the Canadian Open, then lost 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 to Sinner in a competitive rematch in Cincinnati, so the sixth-ranked Russian is in good form and has shown he can go toe to toe with the best of the best on hard courts, but he’s a perennial Grand Slam underachiever with a 0-10 career record in major quarterfinals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach a third consecutive U.S. Open quarterfinal, but the struggles in that round are likely to continue if he faces Djokovic as expected. Fritz reached the quarterfinals of both the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and while he’s certainly capable of reaching that round again out of Ruud’s section, the 12th-ranked American has a tricky early draw, with a potential second-round match against fellow big server Matteo Berrettini.
Rune has had a down year and dropped to 15th in the rankings after being fourth this time last year, but he found his form with a semifinal result in Cincinnati. The 21-year-old Dane could face Zverev in the Round of 16, but Rune will have an immediate first-round test against American Brandon Nakashima. Tsitispas usually fades this time of year, as he’s just 6-6 in his career at the U.S. Open and hasn’t been past the third round. The No. 11 seed is unlikely to get past Medvedev in the fourth round, and he has a tough path there with a tricky first-round match against Thanasi Kokkinakis and 19th-seeded Auger-Aliassime as his chalk third-round opponent.
Sleepers
Karen Khachanov (DK: (+15000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+25000), Caesars: (+12500)) – Khachanov doesn’t have much momentum, with a 3-7 record in his last 10 matches, but the 23rd-seeded Russian may have been handed a perfect draw to make a deep run. The top two seeds blocking his path to the quarterfinals are Hurkacz and de Minaur, both of whom have major injury-related questions. Hurkacz hurt his knee at Wimbledon, then looked far from 100 percent in six matches back before pulling out of his quarterfinal in Cincinnati due to a calf injury. De Minaur hurt his hip at Wimbledon and hasn’t played since. Khachanov’s no stranger to deep Grand Slam runs on hard courts, having made the semifinals here in 2022 and at the 2023 Australian Open.
Jiri Lehecka (DK: (+30000), FD: (+16000), BetMGM: (+20000), Caesars: (+15000)) – Lehecka missed more than three months starting in late April due to a back injury, but he looked good as new in his return in Cincinnati, beating Medvedev in the second round before falling in a third-set tiebreak to eventual finalist Tiafoe. Prior to the injury, Lehecka had been performing at a borderline top-10 level, winning a hard-court title in Adelaide before reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells and semis in Madrid, where the big-hitting 22-year-old sustained his injury. He earned a seed here by being ranked 32nd despite the missed time, and if his fitness is good enough to play best-of-five set tennis effectively, Lehecka has a realistic chance to emerge as the quarterfinalist out of a section of the draw that also has No. 6 seed Rublev — whom Lehecka beat in Indian Wells — and No. 9 seed Grigor Dimitrov.
Brandon Nakashima (DK: (+20000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+30000), Caesars: (+25000)) – Patience and hard work have paid off for Nakashima, as he grinded lower-tier tournaments early in the year to build up his ranking and confidence after a knee injury knocked the 23-year-old American out of the top 150 last year. He has climbed back into the top 50 at No. 48 while posting top-25 wins over Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz and Arthur Fils between the two hard-court Masters 1000 events in August. Nakashima faces an early test against No. 15 seed Casper Ruud, but if the American can pull off that upset, the 18th-seeded Musetti — who is least effective on hard courts — would be the only other seed sitting between Nakashima and a date with Zverev in the Round of 16.
U.S. Open Picks: Ladies’ Tournament
The Favorite
Aryna Sabalenka (DK: (+250), FD: (+240), BetMGM: (+260), Caesars: (+240)) – Sabalenka earned the No. 2 seed here with a 1000-level title in Cincinnati this month, and she also won this year’s first hard-court Grand Slam at the Australian Open. The big-hitting Belarusian shouldn’t have too much trouble making the Round of 16, where she could face 14th-seeded American Madison Keys. Olympic gold medalist Qinwen Zheng and silver medalist Donna Vekic are both potential quarterfinal opponents before a potential semifinal against No. 3 seed Coco Gauff, who leads their head-to-head 4-3, including a Gauff win in last year’s U.S. Open final and a Sabalenka victory in the semifinals of this year’s Australian Open. Between the comfortable early draw and her hard-court success this year, including a convincing 6-3, 6-3 win over Swiatek in Cincinnati, Sabalenka has established herself as the favorite heading into the U.S. Open.
In the Mix
Iga Swiatek (DK: (+380), FD: (+370), BetMGM: (+350), Caesars: (+350)) – Swiatek’s title odds are closer to Sabalenka’s than anyone else in the field. The world No. 1 could face No. 25 seed and recent Cincinnati quarterfinalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the third round before a potential Round of 16 rematch against Mirra Andreeva, who pushed Swiatek to 7-5 in the third in Cincinnati. Her quarterfinal opponent would likely be one of Jessica Pegula, Danielle Collins or Diana Shnaider, while chalk semifinal opponent Elena Rybakina has a 4-2 career lead in their head-to-head. Swiatek’s a proven winner here, as her 2022 U.S. Open title is her only Grand Slam championship besides four French Opens, and she has a fabulous 50-6 record in 2024, but the last loss was a 6-3, 6-3 blowout at the hands of Sabalenka in Cincinnati.
Coco Gauff (DK: (+850), FD: (+900), BetMGM: (+800), Caesars: (+700)) – Gauff is the defending champion here, but the 20-year-old American comes in with much less momentum than she had last year, when she was riding high off the Cincinnati title and her only career win over Swiatek. This year, Gauff went 1-2 at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati. On the bright side, the No. 3 seed’s early draw isn’t overly daunting, though Elina Svitolina and Emma Navarro/Marta Kostyuk could present challenges in Rounds 3 and 4, respectively. Gauff’s potential quarterfinal opponents include Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova, Maria Sakkari, Victoria Azarenka or Paula Badosa. If she gets through a possible semifinal against Sabalenka, Gauff will hope to face someone other than Swiatek in the final, as Swiatek has 11 straight-sets wins in their 12 meetings.
Elena Rybakina (DK: (+900), FD: (+1100), BetMGM: (+1100), Caesars: (+800)) – Rybakina has underachieved at Grand Slams in 2024 but has had a fabulous season otherwise, claiming three titles en route to a 40-9 record. The No. 4 seed has plenty of familiar faces in her section, such as Elise Mertens, Caroline Wozniacki and Caroline Garcia, but the No. 4 seed is a notch above all of those players at this stage of their respective careers. Childhood friend and No. 15 seed Anna Kalinskaya would be her chalk Round of 16 opponent, while possible quarterfinal foes include No. 5 seed Jasmine Paolini, No. 10 seed Jelena Ostapenko, or No. 23 seed and former U.S. Open finalist Leylah Fernandez before a semifinal showdown with Swiatek.
Jessica Pegula (DK: (+1200), FD: (+1200), BetMGM: (+1200), Caesars: (+1200)) – Pegula’s coming off her best two-tournament stretch of 2024, as she won the Canadian Open then made the finals in Cincinnati, but she got no favors from the draw makers. The sixth-seeded American will face an early test in the second round against either Emma Raducanu or Sofia Kenin, and either No. 11 Collins or No. 18 Shnaider would be a tough fourth-round draw. Just getting to the quarterfinals will be tough, and Pegula’s 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals. She’s unlikely to notch her first such win if chalk holds and Pegula faces top seed Iga Swiatek in the quarters.
The list of realistic title hopefuls in the women’s draw is far longer than that in the men’s draw, as the top few players have had less of a stranglehold on the biggest events. The top secondary contenders include Mirra Andreeva (DK: (+2200), FD: (+2000), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+2200)), Naomi Osaka (DK: (+2800), FD: (+2600), BetMGM: (+2200), Caesars: (+1800)), Qinwen Zheng (DK: (+3000), FD: (+2900), BetMGM: (+2800), Caesars: (+2200)), Danielle Collins (DK: (+3000), FD: (+3000), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+2800)), Paula Badosa (DK: (+3500), FD: (+3000), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)) and Jasmine Paolini (DK: (+3500), FD: (+4200), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+2800)).
Badosa and Paolini stand out as the best bets from this group given their situations and draws. The 26th-seeded Badosa could face No. 8 seed Krejcikova in the third round, but Badosa has been in better hard-court form than the Wimbledon champion, as the Spaniard won a 500-level hard-court title at the Citi Open and reached the semis in Cincinnati. After struggling with back injuries, the former world No. 2 finally looks healthy again, and Badosa’s still only 26. Paolini continues to be underestimated by the oddsmakers considering she has climbed to fifth in the rankings in a breakout season that included a hard-court 1000-level title in Dubai and runner-up finishes at each of the last two Grand Slams. The Italian’s first-round draw against 2019 U.S. Open champion Bianca Andreescu is daunting, but Andreescu has been struggling with her fitness, while Paolini has excelled in close matches all year thanks to her physical and mental toughness. Badosa is in Gauff’s quarter, while Paolini is in the same quarter as Rybakina, whom Paolini defeated in the French Open quarterfinals.
Andreeva reached the French Open semifinals and pushed Swiatek to the brink in Cincinnati. The talented 17-year-old is still most comfortable on clay, but it’s just a matter of time until she’s contending for Grand Slam titles on all surfaces. The No. 21 seed certainly has enough game to get by 16th-seeded Russian compatriot Liudmila Samsonova in the third round, but beating Swiatek on the Grand Slam stage in the fourth round would be a very tall order at this stage of Andreeva’s career. Osaka has four career hard-court Grand Slam titles, but outside of having match point against Swiatek at the French Open, Osaka hasn’t found her championship form since returning from her mental break and maternity leave, witha pedestrian 18-15 record in 2024. She’s a fade at these odds, especially with a brutal first-round draw against No. 10 seed Jelena Ostapenko and the possibility of facing 2023 U.S. Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova in the second round.
Zheng reached the Australian Open final and won the gold medal at the Olympics, so the No. 7 seed is certainly capable of making a deep run, but she’ll be on upset alert in the first round against resurgent American Amanda Anisimova. Zheng is in Sabalenka’s quarter and has struggled against top competition on hard courts, with a 2-5 record against top-40 opponents on this surface in 2024. Collins won’t be short on motivation in the final Grand Slam of her career before she retires, but the 11th-seeded American got a brutal draw. She could face red-hot Diana Shnaider in the third round before matching up in the Round of 16 with Swiatek, whose 7-1 head-to-head against Collins includes three wins this year. Collins won the Miami Open in March but has faded a bit recently while playing through injuries.
Sleepers
Diana Shnaider (DK: (+5000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+3500)) – Shnaider has rocketed up the rankings to a career-best 18th heading into this tournament with an outstanding six-tournament stretch that included two titles and a semifinal run at the Canadian Open, which included a 6-4, 6-1 victory over Gauff. The 20-year-old Russian lefty has tremendous power off the ground, and few players are more confident or match fit heading into the U.S. Open. Even with a daunting draw that includes Collins in Round 3 and Swiatek in Round 4, Shnaider is a legitimate dark horse title contender.
Amanda Anisimova (DK: (+8000), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+5000)) – Anisimova can hang with anybody when she’s on her game, and the talented American demonstrated that upside at the Canadian Open, where she beat four consecutive top-20 players, including Sabalenka, to reach the final. Anisimova will celebrate her 23rd birthday Aug. 31, and she’s hoping to give herself an early birthday present by upsetting No. 7 seed Qinwen Zheng in the first round. If Anisimova gets through that match, expect to see her facing Daria Kasatkina or Donna Vekic in the Round of 16 with a quarterfinal match against Sabalenka on the line. Anisimova’s ranked just 49th, but the 2019 French Open semifinalist would easily be in the top 20 if she could put together a full season of even her B-game.
Donna Vekic (DK: (+8000), FD: (+7500), BetMGM: (+12500), Caesars: (+4000)) – Vekic has played only one hard-court match in the lead-up to the U.S. Open, but the No. 24 seed has a couple eminently winnable matches to start off her tournament and play her way into form before a possible third-round showdown with Kasatkina. She got to a third-set tiebreak against Paolini in the semifinals at Wimbledon, then claimed the silver medal at the Olympics, so Vekic has been in excellent form on the biggest stages recently. Prior to Wimbledon, the big-hitting Croatian’s two best Grand Slam results were quarterfinals at the 2019 U.S. Open and 2023 Australian Open, both on hard courts.
Sasha’s Picks to Win the U.S. Open
I’m picking Carlos Alcaraz to beat Zverev in the final in a rematch of the French Open championship match, preceded by Medvedev spoiling a chalk semifinal foursome by upsetting Sinner in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz has undoubtedly figured out how to manage the ups and downs of best-of-five set tennis, having won the last two Grand Slams while posting a sparkling 12-1 five-set record so far in his career. The Spaniard has been a near lock to win when matches go five, and good luck winning three out of four sets against him before then.
I’m going with Aryna Sabalenka to follow in Gauff’s footsteps from last year and win the U.S. Open on the heels of a title in Cincinnati. The two-time Australian Open champion has lost before the semifinals only once in her last seven Grand Slam appearances. She’s a near lock to go deep into the second week as usual, and Sabalenka has been the best player in the biggest hard-court events this year. My pick to come out of the top half of the draw and face Sabalenka in the final is Rybakina, courtesy of a victory over Swiatek in the semis.
