The Premier League has had a relatively smooth opening week with no major upsets. Matchday 2 is an interesting date with Aston Villa hosting Arsenal in a big match, but there are plenty of opportunities to bet on.
Read on for our English Premier League predictions, including Southampton vs Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa vs Arsenal.
Follow all of our Premier League coverage here and on YouTube throughout the season, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes throughout the season. And if you want to see my predictions for every Premier League match you can find them here.
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BJ Cunningham's Premier League Predictions
Russell Martin's Southampton averaged 63% possession in the Championship. They also led the league in total passes and, most importantly, total successful short passes. Martin likes to overload in the build-up, whether that's 3v2 in the first phase or 4v3 when they reach the final third, but that won't be as effective against Nottingham Forest.
Since Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager of Nottingham Forest on 20 December 2023, the club has allowed just 1.32 npxG per 90 minutes, the fourth best in the Premier League. Additionally, against lower-ranked teams, they have allowed just 11.8 expected goals in 11 games.
Nottingham Forest are a dangerous transition team under Nuno. They have the ball carriers and the pace to break down Southampton when they lose possession. Southampton conceded 2.1 counter-attack shots per 90 minutes in the Championship last season, the most in the league. On top of that, Nottingham Forest don't sit back on anyone and when they feel they can press effectively they do so, and on those rare occasions they have been really effective.
Pick: Nottingham Forest – Draw No Bet (+107 via bet365)
Last season, West Ham defended in a passive low block under David Moyes, conceding 1.87 xG per 90 minutes, the fourth-highest in the Premier League. West Ham are now barely winning the ball in midfield, and Aston Villa exploited that in their first game. Lopetegui wants his team to play in a high defensive block, but West Ham are clearly struggling to put any real pressure on the ball. Aston Villa have always built up from the centre of the pitch.
In a way, that's West Ham's problem. They're not going to suddenly go from a bottom-five defence to an above-average one because of tactical changes and new signings that have nothing to do with addressing the underlying issues. West Ham won just 38% of their ground matches against Aston Villa. Nothing has changed under David Moyes.
Crystal Palace played West Ham at Selhurst Park on April 21st and won the match. The final score was 5-2, 4-0 at 30 minutes, 18-4 shots and 27-8 touches in the penalty box. Crystal Palace finished the day with the exact same odds as they did in this match, which I think is crazy, so I like the value on Crystal Palace at +115.
Pick: Crystal Palace ML (+115 via bet365)
Aston Villa beat Arsenal twice last season, but Arsenal should have won both games. Their previous meeting at the Emirates Stadium was the last time Arsenal lost in the Premier League, despite completely dominating the first half, winning the xG battle by a total of 1.6 to 0.9 and with a field tilt of 66%. What Arsenal did in both meetings with Aston Villa was to completely shut down their opponents' build-up attacks. Villa were not successful in their preferred short passing build-up and were forced to play more direct, which worked to Arsenal's advantage as they are the best team in the Premier League at winning duels.
Aston Villa had a pretty weak defense in the opening game and although they played well in the build-up, they will be facing the best defense in the Premier League and I am worried they will once again struggle to find a way through their own defense. Douglas Luiz was the most influential player in the build-up last season, directing Aston Villa in the first two phases of the build-up as the main midfielder dropping deep in the build-up. Onana has the potential to be that player but is not ready right now, especially against Arsenal.
There's also the fact that Aston Villa were terrible defensively against the better teams last year: they conceded 1.84 xG per 90 minutes against attacking teams ranked in the top eight for expected goals, the second-most scoring chances in the entire Premier League.
I'm projecting Arsenal at -143, so I like the value at -125.
Pick: Arsenal ML (-125 via DraftKings)
About the Author
BJ Cunningham began betting during his college years and began his career at Action Network in January 2020 as a part-time writer, eventually going full-time. Previously working as a financial auditor for six years, he now specializes in European soccer, college football and baseball betting, with a focus on advanced data. BJ is a regular contributor to Action Network's podcasts and live betting shows, including Wondergoal, Payoff Pitch and Green Dot Daily.
Follow Brad Cunningham @BJCunningham22 on Twitter/X.
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