On August 19, as delegates gathered in Chicago to kick off the Democratic National Convention, surreal events were unfolding 6,000 miles away in Israel.
In Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that Israel had accepted a “bridge proposal” for a ceasefire. Blinken stressed that it remained to be seen whether Hamas leadership in Gaza would agree. But as Blinken spoke, both Israeli and Hamas officials said there had been no progress in peace talks in Qatar.
This is hardly surprising, given that just three weeks ago Hamas' chief negotiator and political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran, almost certainly by Israel.
Then, on August 18, Israeli negotiators told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu they needed room to negotiate, and he reportedly refused to make concessions after months of negotiations had reportedly failed to reach an agreement based on his positions.
In other words, while Blinken said an agreement was achievable, Prime Minister Netanyahu told the families of hostages held by Hamas that “we don't know whether an agreement will be reached.”
“The prime minister's comments effectively undermine the hostage deal. Prime Minister Netanyahu is unwilling to face up to the fact that if he abandons the hostages they will be killed in captivity,” the Hostage Families Forum said.
Meanwhile, 6,000 miles away, outside the United Center in Chicago, a group of pro-Palestinian protesters demanded an end to Israeli attacks and hurled abuse at the man they called “Genocide Joe” Biden.
Inside, Democratic attendees were praising the outgoing US president, and Biden, while accepting his party's accolades, made a declaration that turned out to be illusory: “A few days ago, I put forward a proposal that brings us closer to that goal than any other since October 7.”
Biden leads a Democratic party deeply divided on the issue of the Gaza conflict. But he has long been a staunch supporter of Israel, and traveled to Tel Aviv shortly after the Oct. 7 attack to show solidarity with Netanyahu. Biden embraced Netanyahu and vowed: “As long as America stands, and we will stand forever, we will never let you be alone.”
Overcoming Gaza
Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic candidate to succeed Biden, has taken a different approach on Gaza and the future of Israel and Palestine, including more openly calling for a ceasefire. It remains to be seen how she will address divisions within her party over the issues as she campaigns for the White House between now and November.
Before Biden dropped out of the race in July, the conventional wisdom among many analysts was that Israel and Gaza would cost the Democratic Party the election. Michigan, a key battleground state, officially has 211,405 Arab Americans, but some estimates put the number at as high as 500,000. The group's vote could be decisive, given that they lost fewer than 11,000 votes to Trump in 2016 and just over 150,000 to Biden in 2020.
But Harris took Biden's place in the White House on July 21. Within days, Michigan polls had gone from a 3-7 percentage point margin to a 3-4 point margin — a flip that shows no signs of reversing.
Outside of Michigan, Harris has energized younger voters who were alienated by Biden's stance on the Middle East, possibly in part because of her different views on the issue.
While she did not explicitly cut off her administration's support for Israel this spring, she began emphasizing the welfare of Gaza's civilians, saying they must be protected both from Israeli attacks and the humanitarian crisis they have caused.
In early April, Harris made a mark by commenting on a phone call between Biden and Netanyahu.
We will make sure that Israel does not lose its ability to defend itself, and at the same time, if there is no change in Israel's approach, it is very likely that our approach will change as well.
Campaigning in Arizona on August 9, Harris paused to address protesters chanting “Liberate Palestine” and directly address their concerns. “I've been clear,” she told the crowd. “Now is the time to get a ceasefire and a hostage deal done.”
Competing realities
While Harris' argument falls short for some pro-Palestinian activists, the broader context of the Democratic campaign suggests that most presidential voters will prioritise things other than Gaza.
And the pro-Palestinian protesters were merely a ripple in the wave of solidarity that erupted inside the United Center, with cheers for Biden and rapturous applause for Harris.
So if the tide is turning, it doesn't seem to be because of Gaza. On the contrary, Harris and her popular running mate, Tim Walz, have not only regained narrow leads in five “battleground” states previously thought to be key to the election, but are now leading in others that were thought to have been lost to Trump under Biden.
Ms Harris overturned deficits of up to eight points to take the lead in Arizona and North Carolina, overturned Mr Trump's lead in Nevada and pulled within one or two points in Georgia.
“This November, we stand united and we say with one voice, as one people, that we are moving forward,” Harris said, urging the crowd at the Democratic Convention. “If we fight, we will win,” she said, leading the crowd to chant, “We will win.”
The next day, in Gaza, 12 people were killed in an Israeli air strike on a school sheltering civilians.
There are three realities behind the illusion of a “ceasefire.” Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot afford to go ahead with a ceasefire, as he faces early elections and could be put on trial for bribery if the war ends. Harris can win whether a ceasefire is agreed or not. And without one, Gaza's civilians will keep dying.
Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
