It's been a rollercoaster month for Lunchmeat.
In late July, just as parents were beginning to decide what to pack for school lunches, Boar's Head recalled more than 7 million pounds of ham, salami and other products — the equivalent of 161 lorries — after its liverwurst was linked to an outbreak of deadly Listeria.
Lunchmeat recently became a political prop when it made a cameo on a grocery table next to Donald Trump during his speech denouncing rising food prices. According to the Trump campaign, lunchmeat prices have risen 23.2% since Kamala Harris became vice president. (Other national sales data put the increase at about 25%.)
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from The New York Times
As if on cue, deli meat sales fell nearly 8% the week the recall was announced, though Ann-Marie Roerink, president of food-research firm 210 Analytics, said “in the grand scheme of things, this is a very modest decline.” Lunch meat sales have been sluggish overall since their pandemic-era peak; they were down 2.4% in the year through June.
But don't bet against lunch meat: The staple meat that debuted in America in a German-Jewish deli in the 1850s is now a $16 billion-a-year business that seems to weather challenges and changes with equal gusto, whether it's warnings about links to cancer and heart disease or sudden fads like the charcuterie board.
After several years of pandemic- and price-related volatility, the cold cuts market is returning to moderate growth, according to Mintel's 2023 Bacon and Lunch Meats report. “Lunch meats are an incredibly stable category,” said Jonah Parker, fresh produce analyst at Circana. “It's booming.”
Lunchmeat sales have weathered food inflation in large part because of the variety of choices: Shoppers can switch to delicate, expensive slices of mortadella when they have the cash or want to entertain, and cheaper bags of bologna sausage when they don't.
In a world where convenience, choice and customization are watchwords in the food industry, deli meats offer a way for everyone in the household to make a quick meal using ingredients already in the fridge.
A recent recall by Boar's Head was centered around contamination with Listeria. Listeria can cause serious infections, especially in pregnant women, people over 65, and those with weakened immune systems. Others may experience flu-like symptoms, including fever, vomiting, and diarrhea. Listeria can grow even when contaminated products are packaged and refrigerated, and can remain on slicers and other surfaces where food is prepared.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that as of August 8, three deaths and 43 hospitalizations in 13 states have been linked to the Listeria strain found in Boar's Head products. (Boar's Head's media office did not respond to an email seeking comment.)
Roerink and others who study the market say the recent sales decline could be due to a variety of factors beyond the recall. They expect sales to return to normal within a month. They say the traditional back-to-school sales boost would be a positive, but so would consumers who are more trusting of the recall process, or at least more willing to look past the stigma of a recall.
“This will have a very temporary impact on sales,” said Roerink, who has worked in retail food research for more than 20 years. “Americans have a great deal of confidence in the safety of the food they buy.”
Aidan Craynock, a private-school fundraiser and art appraiser in Portland, Ore., is a Boar's Head fan, especially the beef bologna, which she gets thinly sliced at the deli and eats on a baguette with a dab of mayonnaise and mustard.
Klaynock stopped going to the deli section of her supermarket after hearing about the recall, but after doing some research, she plans to go back. “If the problem hadn't been identified, or if Oregon was one of the states with a high outbreak, I would be afraid to go back,” she said.
Still, she eats cold cuts sparingly: Her mother is recovering from colon cancer, and studies have shown that eating more processed meat increases the risk of developing the disease.
“Despite increasing public health concerns about processed meat consumption, there has been no change in the amount of processed meat consumed by U.S. adults over the past 18 years,” wrote the researchers, who published their findings in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics in 2019.
Like many grocery store staples, lunch meats have seen strong growth during the pandemic: Pre-prepared deli hams, for example, grew 25% in 2020.
Its popularity has continued: Instead of buying fresh slices, shoppers are turning to prepackaged deli meats or to-go combinations of meat and cheese. Now, 52% of deli meat sales come from the to-go case, up from 37% in 2019, said Chris Dubois, who oversees research for meat, seafood and deli products at Circana.
“This is a slow-moving earthquake,” he said.
Dubois said millennials, who tend to prioritize convenience, are less likely than older generations to take the time to ask deli counter attendants to cut meat for them. Research also shows millennials are more likely to snack and are interested in adding more protein to their meals, all of which could guarantee a future for cold cuts.
“Older generations might think of cold cuts simply as a sandwich, but certainly cold cuts can be a snack or an entire dinner,” Roerink says. “Younger generations, who are very protein-conscious, might have a couple of slices of turkey as an afternoon snack.”
To attract them, brands need to offer innovative flavours and highlight improved animal welfare and processing methods, as reflected in products such as antibiotic-free citrus and ginger turkey breast and a national brand repackaged to highlight sustainability, vegan salami.
But these changes are unlikely to change the lunch meat landscape, Dubois said, and staples will likely survive.
“Turkey, roast beef, ham — that's most of your business,” says Stu Leonard Jr., president of a small, glitzy Northeastern grocery chain his father started in 1969. “That's your Ford, your GM, your Chrysler.”
The deli counter has long been one of Stu Leonard's most trusted departments, even when the chain stopped selling Boar's Head products in 2022 due to a business dispute. And it likely will continue to be that way, Leonard said. “People will always eat cold cuts.”
Around 2024 The New York Times
