The fourth and final Grand Slam of the 2024 tennis season is fast approaching, as the best tennis players in the world head to Flushing Meadows to compete for the US Open title.
Since Serena Williams won three straight titles from 2012-2014, six women have won their first Grand Slam title at the U.S. Open, including Flavia Pennetta, Sloane Stephens, Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, Emma Raducane and Coco Gauff.
And of those six, Osaka is the only one to go on to win a major tournament.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal (who withdrew from this year's U.S. Open) have won the U.S. Open a combined five times since 2014, while Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev all won their only major titles at the final major tournament of the season.
Our US Open expert picks and odds focus on predicted winners on both sides of the draw.
Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka, who will win their first Grand Slam titles at the 2022 US Open, are the consensus favorites in US Open odds across our best sports betting apps.
US Open expert predictions
(Odds from our best sports betting sites as of August 24. Choose your confidence level based on 1-5 star ratings).
US Open Men's Winners
Novak Djokovic ⭐⭐⭐
If you were putting together a portfolio of men's US Open picks, I believe it is essential to have some bets on either Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic, and given the draws and head-to-head results of both players, it would be wise to bet on Djokovic.
Djokovic has won three of his last four meetings with Alcaraz, including two on the hard courts of Cincinnati and at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2023. It's also hard to trust Alcaraz after playing “the worst match of his career” against Gael Monfils last week.
Djokovic comes to New York for the first time in 14 years without winning a Grand Slam title in a calendar year.
That extra motivation, along with his first Olympic gold medal, puts him in a strong position to win the U.S. Open, and the draw also means he'll avoid playing either Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner until the final.
Djokovic is widely priced across our top sports betting sites, with bet365 giving him a good 30.77% (+225 odds) chance of winning his 25th Grand Slam title.
I’m backing Djokovic to win the U.S. Open at +260 odds (the best odds) at BetMGM, which will earn me a profit of $26 on a $10 bet.
Best odds: +260 (via BetMGM) | Implied probability 27.78%
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US Women's Champion
Aryna Sabalenka ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sabalenka has reached the semifinals or finals in her last three US Open appearances. The world number two had a tough start to the year, missing Wimbledon with a shoulder injury after winning back-to-back Australian Open titles.
But any doubts about Sabalenka were erased last week when she dominated the field to win the Cincinnati Open.
Sabalenka was dominant, not dropping a set and four of her five wins came against top 30 opponents, including world number one Iga Swiatek in the semifinals.
bet365 is offering odds of +210, while BetMGM is offering the best price at +250, which will earn you an extra $4 profit on a $10 bet.
At BetMGM, a $10 bet will earn you a $25 profit.
Best odds: +250 (via BetMGM) | Implied probability 28.57%
US Open Prop Picks
Taylor Fritz wins third quarter tie⭐⭐⭐
An American player hasn't won a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick won the U.S. Open in 2003, but the signs of progress are clear given the success of Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul, who both reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
Fritz is in a favorable position to avoid the “Big Three” of Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
FanDuel gives the Americans a 60% chance of making the semifinals at -150 odds, while DraftKings gives them +900 chances of making the finals and +1400 chances of winning the tournament.
The latter two bets are good ways to bet on Fritz, as they also give Paul and Francis Tiafoe a chance, but Fritz's +700 odds to make the semifinals on FanDuel are too good to pass up.
Compared to BetMGM's +600 odds on this market, making this play on FanDuel would allow bettors to profit $10 more for every $10 bet ($70 vs. $60).
Best Odds: +700 via FanDuel | Implied Probability: 12.50%
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Jessica Pegula wins first quarter tie⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is Pegula's 23rd Grand Slam appearance, and her best result at a major is the quarterfinals. She is 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals.
If Pegula reaches the quarterfinals again, she will have beaten Swiatek three times in her career, all on outdoor hard courts (2019 in Washington DC, 2023 United Cup and 2023 in Montreal).
Pegula has been in the best form of any player ranked 5th or lower in the odds rankings, successfully defending her National Bank Open title in Canada (dropping only one set in the tournament) and reaching her second consecutive final in Cincinnati.
If she hadn't been too fatigued by those long battles, a quarterfinal win over the world No. 1 in her native New York state would be the perfect storyline to reach her first Grand Slam semifinal.
According to bet365's +300 odds, Pegula has a 1 in 4 chance of reaching the semifinals.
The best value is FanDuel, which will pay you $56 for a $10 bet.
Best odds: +460 (via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 17.86%
US Open Information
Date: August 26-September 8 Location: Flushing Meadows, New York Defending champions: Novak Djokovic, Coco Gauff Favourites to win: Carlos Alcaraz (+220 via FanDuel), Aryna Sabalenka (+250 via BetMGM)
U.S. Open expert predictions will be released at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday.
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