Deaths from heatwaves are predicted to rise sharply over the next few years, far outpacing the expected decline in cold-weather deaths.
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Extreme heat and cold kill around 407,500 people in Europe each year, and unless more is done to combat climate change, an additional 55,000 people a year could die by 2100 — a 13.5 percent increase, according to new estimates from European Commission researchers.
Currently, most temperature-related deaths in Europe are linked to cold weather, but the study, published in the Lancet Public Health journal, says that extreme heat will become an increasingly deadly problem, especially in southern Europe and areas with older populations.
The analysis assumes global warming of 3°C, which is at the upper end of the current trajectory according to the latest UN estimates, and double the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement.
“Europe, like the rest of the world, is facing an increase in extremely hot days, but countries are not prepared for the impact this will have on their populations' health,” Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the U.K.-based health foundation Wellcome Trust, which was not involved in the study, said in an email.
The researchers analysed data from around 1,400 regions in 30 European countries to estimate the number of deaths caused by extreme heat and cold over long periods, and projected how these levels might change by 2100, taking into account an ageing population.
This approach made it possible to identify “hotspots where people will be most affected in the future,” Juan Carlos Siscal, one of the study's authors and a science officer at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), said in a statement.
Cold deaths rise in northern regions
According to the study, between 1991 and 2020, there were around 364,000 deaths per year from cold across Europe, and around 44,000 deaths from heat, with more deaths from cold in Eastern Europe and more deaths from extreme heat in Southern Europe.
These regional disparities are only expected to widen, researchers say.
While the number of deaths from the common cold is expected to fall slightly overall over the coming decades, deaths are expected to rise in Ireland, Norway and Sweden, where the number of people aged 85 and over is growing.
Deaths from heatstroke are also expected to rise sharply across the continent, with Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France expected to be the most affected.
“Heat waves are becoming more frequent, more intense and lasting longer due to climate change,” Rebecca Emmerton, a climate scientist at the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service, who was not involved in the study, told Euronews Health.
Notably, the new analysis is based on people living in cities, where heat may pose a greater health risk than in rural areas, and does not take into account demographics such as gender or ethnicity.
Still, the findings show that “it is crucial to develop more targeted policies to protect these communities and members of society most at risk from extreme temperatures,” study author David Garcia-León, a science officer at the JRC, said in a statement.
UN calls for international climate action
Last month, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for international cooperation to tackle the heatwaves, with an emphasis on vulnerable groups, protecting workers and investing in renewable energy rather than fossil fuels, to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
This new research follows a separate analysis which found that policy interventions to adapt to climate change over the past two decades have saved thousands of lives, but more needs to be done to curb preventable deaths.
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Researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health highlighted the role of early warning systems and heat prevention plans put in place after a heatwave in 2003 killed more than 70,000 people.
Extreme heat poses more health risks than just death: it can also increase the risk of miscarriage for women working in extreme heat and exacerbate mental health conditions.
Mr Thomson, from the Wellcome Trust, said people would also have to deal with the “indirect impacts” of bushfires, agricultural failures and other environmental and infrastructure problems.
These issues “will have a cascading effect on our lives,” she said.
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