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While some in Brussels are hard at work preparing for the political transition (President Ursula von der Leyen will soon launch a new European Commission for parliamentary scrutiny), much of Europe remains in summer calm. So before the start of a new five-year EU political cycle, it's worth taking a moment to think about what success looks like after it's over.
The first indicator that the transformation has been successful will be that the EU becomes more relevant in the world. Its choices will affect trends in other regions, and other great powers will have to adapt. This will not be the result of increased defense spending or a more coherent common foreign policy, although both are necessary. If it does happen, it will restore the EU as a center of economic attraction.
Five years from now, the EU will be judged by the extent to which leaders not only of its neighbours but also of Asia, Africa and Latin America choose to orient their countries towards Europe – predicated on restoring growth and investment at home, as well as on convincingly inviting other countries that share our values and wider interests to genuinely share in our prosperity.
This means fast-tracking existing commitments, from finalizing the South American trade agreement with the Mercosur alliance to rapidly integrating Ukraine and the Balkans into EU markets and institutions and moving steadily toward membership. But it also means devising both new funding and organizational structures to convince countries that are not yet members that their best bet is to become more interdependent with the EU.
This will require infrastructure ambition that truly matches, if not exceeds, China's Belt and Road Initiative, and will require greater market access in exchange for greater adoption of EU rules and standards.
The second indicator is a stronger EU budget. The length of time it takes to negotiate the EU’s seven-year “multiannual financial frameworks” is usually matched by the small reallocation of funds that results. The next multiannual financial framework, due to start in 2028, must be different.
Budget talks will begin with one advantage: it is now well understood that the next common budget will face entirely different concerns than the previous one, including the need for huge investments in decarbonization, energy, defense, broader geopolitical security, and preparing Ukraine for EU accession.
There is only one compromise that can achieve this: net donors must accept a significantly larger budget than the previous 1% or so of EU national income, and net beneficiaries must accept a fundamental reform of spending, with more targeted, results-oriented allocation of funds towards common European needs, even if it means less redistribution from rich to poor countries.
The third outcome is a more unified pan-European economy. The EU’s supposed single market remains fragmented by legal inadequacies. Enrico Letta’s recent report offers plenty of ideas for cleaning this up, and his colleague, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, will no doubt feature more in his upcoming competitiveness report. (Von der Leyen’s promise of a simplified regulatory “28th regime” to make it easier for companies to scale without complying with 27-nation regulations is a very welcome sign.) But we also need vastly improved road, rail, energy and digital connectivity to bring the continent’s countries physically closer together.
These three goals are easy to agree on. But the steps to get the EU there are harder to agree on, because every reform brings losses for the region. So unless two conditions are met, the goals are unlikely to be achieved.
First, the Commission must be prepared to spend political capital to push through further reforms without an agreement, as long as there is a sufficient majority – the Mercosur trade agreement is a good example – and it is time to encourage member states to vote and challenge France and its few allies to form an opposition minority.
Second, a sufficient number of national leaders must be mature enough to pursue and be accountable to their citizens for the collective good. In a truly successful five-year EU cycle, many national special interests will be voted out, but collective change will make all the better.
The EU's motto is “Unity in Diversity.” Applying this to internal EU decision-making means accepting more divisive processes for the common good of Europeans. Looking to the future and looking back makes this easier.
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