When Vietnam's new leader, Tho Lam, flew to Beijing last week, it was impossible to miss the political theater. With cameras rolling, he was juggling a delicate game between Hanoi and the economic powerhouse to the north while simultaneously advancing his country's strategic interests across Southeast Asia. It's a tightrope Vietnam has perfected over the decades, preserving precious diplomatic space within the ASEAN region while protecting its strong trade ties with its largest trading partner, China. And with tensions rising in the South China Sea, Lam's diplomatic maneuvering is more important than ever.
“ASEAN has given Vietnam some diplomatic room for maneuver in its negotiations with China,” said Phuong Le Thu, deputy director of the Asia program at the International Crisis Group. “Vietnam's initial hope was to place its territorial dispute with China in the context of a multilateral dispute between Beijing and the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),” she said.
That strategy was on full display earlier this month when Vietnam's coast guard conducted its first joint exercise with the Philippine coast guard in the disputed waters. Analysts say the move was carefully calibrated to deepen ties with fellow ASEAN claimants without crossing Beijing's red lines. “The exercises were mainly focused on humanitarian efforts rather than military exercises,” said academic Tran Thi Mong Tuyen, a foreign policy expert at National Cheng Kung University. It was a diplomatic ploy that allowed Hanoi to strengthen regional partnerships while adhering to its non-aligned “four no's” principle, Tran said. Philippine coast guard and Vietnamese coast guard vessels fire water cannons during a joint exercise near Manila Bay, Philippines, on August 9. Photo: EPA-EFE
“Vietnam's policy is not influenced by external forces and carefully balances diverse interests within this framework. Vietnam is taking a cautious stance, but this should not be mistaken for weakness.”
Vietnam's trade with ASEAN has boomed in the two decades since it joined ASEAN, with exports growing seven-fold from $5.8 billion in 1996 to $41.49 billion in 2016, helping advance Hanoi's economic ambitions.
“For Vietnam, a socialist country moving towards a market-driven economy, cooperation within the ASEAN Economic Community has been a valuable learning experience,” said Le Thu of the International Crisis Group.
Vietnam is actively engaged in ASEAN trade, investment and financial integration, and is strengthening its diplomatic influence within ASEAN, especially among its neighbors who are feeling the effects of China's economic gravitational pull.
In recent years, Hanoi has focused on strengthening ties with two countries in particular, Cambodia and Laos. “Vietnam was the biggest investor in both countries before it was overtaken by China,” Foreign Minister Le Thu said. Vietnam's Deputy Foreign Minister Do Hung Viet (left) embraces his Laotian top diplomat during the ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting in Vientiane last month. Photo: AFP
Vietnam has strengthened its influence within ASEAN and has strategically used the region to expand its global economic partnerships.
But Vietnam is not fully focused on geopolitics. While it is deepening ties with China through its Belt and Road Initiative to expand global trade, it is also raising money from other sources, including Japan, to fund key infrastructure projects.
Observers say this approach has enabled Vietnam to advocate for a balanced, multilateral approach to regional issues.
The ASEAN platform on security issues will provide a multilateral hub for Vietnam to engage with key partners. Phuong Le Thu, International Crisis Group
“ASEAN's engagement in conflict prevention in the South China Sea will help maintain and strengthen its central role as a driving force in promoting, coordinating and building multilateral cooperation mechanisms in the region,” said academic Tran.
Le Thu said ASEAN's role as a neutral mediator in regional disputes could be a great asset in increasing its attractiveness to international partners.
“Beyond economic interests, various ASEAN platforms dealing with security issues constitute a multilateral platform for Vietnam to engage with key partners such as the US, China, Japan and Australia,” she said.
Vietnamese Foreign Minister Do Hung Viet meets with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Laos last month. Photo: Reuters
Tran said ASEAN's neutral status also helps insulate member states from the pressures of great power competition.
“This makes it resilient to geopolitical pressures arising from strategic competition between major powers, especially the United States,” she said.
Ultimately, Vietnam's shrewd diplomatic strategy suggests that it sees ASEAN not only as an economic engine but also as a geopolitical counterweight.
