Sportsbooks tend to be conservative when it comes to Week 1 NFL spreads, and that's evident in this year's Week 1 NFL lines. Bengals vs. Patriots (+9) is the only matchup with a spread of at least a touchdown, despite both teams finishing last in their respective divisions. The smallest spread, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds, is with the Vikings as 1-point road favorites against the Giants. This game is just one of two road-favored games on the Week 1 NFL schedule; the other is the visiting Texans as 1.5 favorites against the Colts.
With NFL betting odds as tough as they are during opening week, it makes sense to turn to NFL betting advice to kick off the new season. All of the NFL lines for Week 1 are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make your best Week 1 NFL picks right now.
The model has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times and has returned over $7,000 in profits on $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since inception. The model has an astounding 185-129 record on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season and going into Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The model has also recorded 39-21 on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for straight-up NFL picks four of the last six years and beat over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that time, placing it pretty high on anyone who follows it.
Now, they've looked at the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line and over/under and have finalized their picks for all NFL matchups. Click here to see all their picks.
Top NFL Week 1 Predictions
One of the model's most likely NFL predictions for Week 1 is the Chargers (-3.5) covering the spread at home against the Raiders. Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 in Week 1 games in his NFL coaching career and his QB, Justin Herbert, has dominated the Raiders throughout his career. Herbert has totaled 18 touchdowns and just two turnovers in seven games against the Raiders. The Chargers have never finished higher than 18th in rushing in Herbert's career, but his power run game is getting a boost after LA acquired J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards from the Ravens.
Defensively, Khalil Mack terrorized his former team with a career-high six sacks last year in Los Angeles. He did so without Joey Bosa lining up on the other side, but the four-time Pro Bowler is back and healthy. Raiders QB Gardner Minshew faced the Chargers twice in his career before coming to Las Vegas, losing both times by double digits. SportsLine's model has the Chargers (-3.5) winning nearly 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another NFL prediction this week is for the Bills (-5.5) to beat the Cardinals at home. Buffalo will enter the season as balanced offensively as they have been in the Josh Allen era, as it's not all down to Allen himself. RB James Cook emerged late last year, racking up over 1,500 scrimmage yards in a season. He should thrive against arguably the league's worst run defense, as the Cardinals allowed the most rushing yards and the fifth-most rushing scores last year.
Meanwhile, the Bills' opportunity defense forced 30 turnovers last season, the third-most in the NFL. This creates a poor matchup for Kyler Murray, who had 28 fumbles and 18 interceptions in 29 games during that span. As such, the model projects Buffalo to win by double digits and be favored by 6.5 points in nearly 70% of simulations. You can find out which other teams to pick here.
How to make your NFL Week 1 picks
The model also predicted who will win and cover every other game on the NFL's Week 1 schedule, revealing four teams that have a 70% or higher chance of winning. Full predictions for every game are available exclusively at SportsLine.
So which teams should you pick in the NFL with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to find out which teams will win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that's generated over $7,000 in profits.
Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines and spreads
Get your Week 1 NFL predictions at SportsLine
Thursday, September 5
Ravens vs. Chiefs (-3, 46.5)
Friday, September 6
Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) — Brazil
Sunday, September 8
Steelers vs. Falcons (-3, 41.5)
Cardinals vs Bills (-5.5, 48)
Titans vs Bears (-4.5, 43.5)
Patriots vs Bengals (-9, 42.5)
Texans vs Colts (+1.5, 48.5)
Jaguars vs Dolphins (-3.5, 49)
Panthers vs Saints (-4, 40)
Vikings vs Giants (+1, 41.5)
Raiders vs. Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)
Broncos vs. Seahawks (-5, 42)
Cowboys vs. Browns (-2, 43)
Commanders vs Buccaneers (-3, 41.5)
Rams vs Lions (-3.5, 51)
Monday, September 9
Jets vs. 49ers (-4, 44)
