Earlier this year, I outlined the potential impact of a President Trump presidency on Southeast Asian countries. I argued that if former President Trump went ahead with his plans to significantly toughen the U.S. stance against China, it could cause significant trade disruptions in Southeast Asia. Moreover, it could force many Southeast Asian countries that do not want to choose between the U.S. and China (which, according to a valuable new CSIS report, are becoming more receptive to Chinese soft power) to do so.
Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, have fallen back a bit in the race since President Joe Biden stepped down with Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz as his pick. But the race remains very close, and South and Southeast Asian countries need to prepare for the possibility of a Republican and a Democratic administration. What is the difference between a Harris-Waltz administration and a Trump-Vance administration?
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Despite claims to the contrary from some Republicans, Waltz and Harris will never be soft on China. Having taught and spent years in China, Waltz knows the country very well and is widely admired by Chinese and Hong Kong activists for his strong support for human rights in China, easing repression in Tibet, and ending oppression in Hong Kong. As a congressman, Waltz served on the Congressional-Executive Committee on China Affairs and in 2014 co-sponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, one of the most significant pieces of legislation on human rights in China.
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While a Harris-Waltz administration would continue Biden's efforts to bring the country back to home soil, protect vital semiconductor and manufacturing industries, and strengthen defense ties in the Indo-Pacific region, it is unlikely to take the economic measures favored by the Trump administration, such as the high tariffs favored by Trump that would send huge economic ripples through South Asia, Southeast Asia, and around the world.
A Harris-Waltz administration would also be unlikely to directly pressure countries in the region to choose between the US and China. They seem to realize that forcing the US to choose at this point could put them at a disadvantage. Harris has spent a significant amount of time in Southeast Asia during her four years in office, including attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summits. She would likely be aware of the contentious tightrope situation facing nearly all Southeast Asian countries.
At the same time, any administration, whether Democratic or Republican, would likely continue to strengthen ties with key Indo-Pacific partners, including the Philippines, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, all of which are on the U.S. side, and to some extent India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Unlike the Trump administration, Harris and Waltz could be more rhetorical in their support for rights and democracy throughout the Indo-Pacific, complicating closer ties with Vietnam, increasingly politically backwater Indonesia and Thailand, and perhaps India. Harris would have a natural opportunity to open doors and build relationships in India through her roots.
The Biden administration has tried to strike that balance but has often been caught off guard by violent democratic backlash in South and Southeast Asia, from Bangladesh to Vietnam, and some human rights groups on Capitol Hill have sharply criticized the administration's approach. Harris and Walz will also struggle to find that balance.
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This article is a product of the Council on Foreign Relations' China Strategy Initiative, which seeks to answer questions at the heart of U.S. China strategy through cutting-edge analysis, tailored policy recommendations, and engagement with experts from around the world. For more information about the China Strategy Initiative, visit cfr.org/china and follow the initiative at @cfr_china.
