European countries cannot escape Russia's misdeeds.
Whether you appease or confront Russia, spies and saboteurs will target you either way. The Germans are concerned that sending long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine could lead to a dangerous confrontation. But for the Kremlin, their own country is already a target.
This summer, CNN reported on a plot to assassinate the CEO of German arms giant Rheinmetall and other arms industry executives. The news has gone strangely quiet. But Russian activity continues: German prosecutors say they are investigating “suspicion of subversive espionage” after repeated drone flights over critical energy infrastructure in the state of Schleswig-Holstein.
There are some depressing elements to this story. The drone has been flying for at least a few weeks. It appears to have been launched from a merchant ship in the North Sea. German police drones tried to track the intruder but couldn't keep up with its speed of 90 kilometers (55 miles) per hour. This isn't 1945, when Allied air forces flew freely over the crumbling remains of the Third Reich. Germany is one of the richest countries in the world. It should do more to defend its airspace.
And it seems Germany can't guarantee the security of its military bases. Guards found holes in the fence of a barracks water supply that supplies the military at Cologne-Bonn airport in North Rhine-Westphalia. After initial reports of anomalies (later denied), thousands of soldiers and civilians were told to drink only bottled water. In Geilenkirchen, in northwest Germany, where NATO AWACS surveillance planes are stationed, commanders issued a red alert last week and sent home all non-essential staff.
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Then there's the political system. German security officials are watching with concern the support that Russian media and other groups are giving to far-left and far-right politicians. The new BSW party, named for (and founded by) East German far-leftist Zara Wagenknecht, looks set to do well in the September 1 local elections. Polls show it getting 13% of the vote in Saxony and 18% in Thuringia. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats are getting a dismal 6-7% in both states. Wagenknecht, who joined the Communist party in 1989 as the Soviet puppet state was crumbling, has said he won't form a coalition with a party that supports the return of U.S. nuclear missiles to Germany.
Germany may be a weak spot in Europe, but Russian mischief is rampant elsewhere too. Finland, perhaps the best-defended of all NATO member states, has seen at least 11 attempted intrusions at water towers and treatment plants this summer. No damage was recorded and no perpetrators identified, so it's unclear whether these were clumsy reconnaissance or attempts to irritate. Recently, the Russian Baltic Fleet research vessel Mikhail Kazansky violated Finnish territorial waters, causing significant interference with GPS signals.
Even in hardline Norway, criminals are active. In April, news broke of the destruction of communication cables at Evenes Air Base, home to Poseidon 8 reconnaissance planes and F-35 fighter jets. In Svalbard, where Russia inherited Soviet coal mining rights guaranteed by international treaties, mining company staff raised a large Soviet flag (claiming they were reviving a long-standing tradition). Before that, they illegally erected a large Orthodox cross in a nature reserve. Svalbard's complicated status under international law makes it an easy target for Russian salami-slicing tactics. Small, symbolic intrusions may seem too trivial to merit a full-scale response, but if left unchallenged, they set a dangerous precedent and destroy deterrence.
Europe doesn't know how to respond to this, and the Kremlin knows it.
Europe's Edge is CEPA's online journal covering key topics in European and North American foreign policy. All opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or of the Centre for European Policy Analysis.
Edge of Europe
CEPA's online journal covers important topics related to European and North American foreign policy.
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