BANGKOK – Two weeks after Thailand's Constitutional Court dissolved the Forward Party, which won elections on a platform of monarchy reform, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit insists his popular progressive movement is proceeding as planned.
Thanathorn, a founder of the now-banned Future Forward Party, the precursor to the now-disbanded Forward Party, is widely seen as the mastermind behind the Forward Party's political giants, as well as a leader of the newly formed Third Generation People's Party.
Many had wondered whether Thanathorn and other Move Forward leaders would galvanize the masses to take to the streets of Bangkok in protest against the Supreme Court's dissolution decision on Aug. 7, potentially opening a new orange-clad chapter in the kingdom's volatile street politics.
On August 23, Prime Minister Thanathorn gave a presentation titled “Sustained Resistance to Dictatorship” at his alma mater, Thammasat University in Bangkok, a historical hotbed of student activism, in which he proclaimed that he had won a defeat by allowing his party to normalize even talking about monarchy reform, a taboo that can carry a 15-year prison sentence for critics.
He told the audience that his movement ultimately aimed to achieve a “soft landing” for the monarchy, but argued that “fundamental problems require fundamental solutions” and that his “peaceful” vision for transforming Thailand “may take decades” rather than years.
Speaking exclusively to Asia Times Southeast Asia Editor Sean W. Crispin in a dilapidated campus shed overlooking the capital's Chao Phraya River, Thanathorn explained why now is not the time for Move Forward's disenfranchised voters and young supporters to take to the streets, and articulated his long-term vision for transforming Thailand.
Asia Times: How will the recent court-ordered dissolution of the Forward Party affect your progressive movement?
Thanathorn: For us, the paperwork to set up a new party is huge. Before the dissolution, our party membership was around 100,000. So it will take time to get back to the same level.
But apart from that, the court ruling has united us. I think it has made us stronger. If you look at what happened after the Future Forward Party was dissolved, I can't remember exactly, but there were about 18 Cobras (MPs who moved to new parties). This time, there are zero Cobras.
So I think the organization, the whole movement, has gotten stronger over the years. It has gotten stronger both quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitatively, it's the number of supporters. Qualitatively, it's the greater understanding of our ideology, our ideals, our ideas, and people have come to understand us better.
Asia Times: It has happened twice so far. Who would disband your affiliated party and why?
Thanathorn: I think the reason is clear. The reason is that we are a threat to a system of so many individuals. Not to any one organization, but to the whole system. So I think that's the “why.” So we are a threat. The “who”? That's difficult. I'm not sure.
Asia Times: In last year's election, the MFP won 32 of Bangkok's 33 seats. As the centre of economic and political power, what does this result say about the hidden elite's support for the MFP?
Thanathorn: Well, I don't think it's just Bangkok. If you look at other provinces, many provinces, we didn't get many constituency representatives, but we won the party list vote. This shows that many people want change. This party is accused of subverting the monarchy, but people still voted for them. So people want change.
It is no exaggeration to say that this is not unique to Bangkok, but of course the feelings of the people of Bangkok are
Thailand, right? That's what they say. So I think they were scared when we had that big win in Bangkok.
Asia Times: So do you think this election result means that the royal establishment tacitly supports your cause? That even among the royal establishment there are people who believe in the changes you are seeking?
Thanathorn: The people understand that we… that reforming the monarchy is the best way forward for Thailand and a soft landing for the country. The people understand this, and that is why they have the confidence in us.
Asia Times: Do you think you have more support from forces aligned with the former monarch than from the current one?
Thanathorn: It's hard to say, and hard to quantify, but many sensible royalists seem to think a soft landing is the best way to go.
Asia Times: Why is there no public reaction to the decision to disband the MFP, even though you have a lot of support in Bangkok? Why are we not seeing anything on the streets?
Thanathorn: On the one hand, I think the party had planned this in advance and mentally prepared the people that the 2027 elections were in sight, so now we are aligning the people towards that.
So if you look at the dissolution of the Future Forward Party and the dissolution of the Forward Party, they are completely different because we didn't prepare the people for it. So people got angry. And I wasn't sure if we would be able to get through the dissolution, but we did.
And now we have been talking for months now (we have prepared the public for the possibility of dissolution), and if dissolution happens again, we will establish a new party and continue on towards the elections in 2027, and I think that 2027 will be the peak of our direction as a whole, so the public did not lose faith and did not take to the streets in protest.
Asia Times: So even if Move Forward/Future Forward doesn't organize protests themselves, do you think there's a chance that protests could erupt spontaneously, like we saw with the student protests targeting the royal family in 2021?
Thanathorn: If the CPP wins the election in 2027 but is unable to form a government, the government will collapse.
Asia Times: But why is the party hesitant to openly organise protests, given that the royal decision to disband poses a threat to democracy?
Thanathorn: You talk about change. I want a peaceful transition. It has to be peaceful. So we will continue with this approach until we are 100% sure that a peaceful transition cannot be achieved through a parliamentary approach.
Asia Times: Will the lack of action on the disenfranchisement of the majority of voters only embolden anti-democratic forces who are trying to protect the interests of the establishment? As long as there is no action, they will continue to disband political parties. Eventually, there will have to be an action, right?
Thanathorn: No, because if you look back at what has happened so far, I think we were prepared for this. People were prepared for this. Of course, there was anger on that day. There was anger and sadness on that day. But people know what we will do.
We have clearly communicated that we will establish a new political party and fight again in the 2027 elections. So I think the reason there are no student protests this time is because we communicated this in advance, months in advance.
Asia Times: Since the dissolution is for the convenience of the royal family, are there chances that protests will target the palace and other royal symbols?
Thanathorn: It's possible.
Asia Times: Is there a risk that your affiliated parties will be outmaneuvered by salami slicing tactics and gradually lose support for the FF/MFP/PP and their third generation leaders, who may not garner the same sympathy and support as you and the now banned Pita Limyaroenrat?
Thanathorn: I have full confidence in the third generation of leaders. I think they will get stronger over time. For example, Than (the new leader of the People's Party, Natapong Roongpanyawut) will be 40 years old by the time of the 2027 election. He will be the same age as I was when I founded the Future Forward Party.
He's really bright, he's really intelligent, he's really ideologically sound. Very ideologically sound. So it's one of the things I'm really proud of to be able to bring this new generation of politicians into the spotlight.
Asia Times: Can the youth-led Puea Thai Party, with Pathuntar Shinawatra (38) set to become Thailand's youngest prime minister, take on the role of a new generation party?
Thanathorn: No. It's a matter of organizational structure. The way they recruit MPs is completely different from the way we recruit.
Members of Parliament. (Puea Thai members) have to have a surname. They have to be somebody.
But for us, show us whether you are capable enough to get the position. Take (PP spokesperson) Parit (Vacarasindu). You know Parit. He is 30 years old and is the chairman of the Political Development Committee.
At 30 years old, he didn't contribute anything financially. He got this position because of his ability and his hard work, and he proved himself to people in the party. So he got this position.
Or Ransimon Rome, who is 31 and chairman of the parliamentary border committee. So in this party, it's all about ability, potential, and contribution to the party. It's not about family names. It's not about how much money you give.
That's why I think organizational structure is so important: we're organized the way we are, and that's what makes us who we are.
Asia Times: Imitation is the highest form of flattery. Isn't Pua trying to emulate your model by putting young leaders at the top?
Thanathorn: It doesn't matter if you're young or not. I think the content is more important than the presentation. So, regarding the content, what will you offer to Thai people? And is it something new or not?
It's not about the age of the leader. It's about the content, about delivering the right policies for the Thai people. What kind of Thailand do you want to build for the Thai people? I think that defines forward thinking.
Asia Times: Some feel that (Pho Thai Party supporter) Thaksin Shinawatra is part of the establishment, the oligarchs and the corporate monopolies and they want change. Is it possible for the Shinawatra family to bring about change and emulate policies, considering their history, where they come from and who they are?
Thanathorn: If they wanted to do that, they would have done it by now. How many months? A year?
Asia Times: How long do you really intend to keep going? There was news that you bought Pridi Banomyong's (the revolutionary who overthrew the absolute monarchy in 1932) old house in France. Are you prepared for the day when you have to leave like Thaksin?
Thanathorn: No, no, no, that was symbolic… The future is interesting. I don't know when and how it will happen. But I believe change will happen. When I talk to people on the streets, their perspective, they cannot resist change. Their perspective of change is concrete, very concrete.
Asia Times: Does history show that sparks often come from unpredictable events?
Thanathorn: I think the people at the top are far away from the people. They don't understand what the people are thinking. They live in a different world. They are not responding to the people's calls.
