As the tennis world descends on New York for the final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, we're ready.
Let's get the festivities started by taking a look at the two women's matches!
For Monday's U.S. Open predictions, I'll bet on Dart vs. Paquet and Kostyuk vs. Kessler.
Match times are subject to change. Find tips for watching US Open matches here.
Monday's US Open predictions
Harriet Dart (-245) vs Chloe Paquette (+195)
3pm ET
I’m not going to argue that Dart isn’t the favorite to win this matchup, but it would take some convincing to make me believe she’s almost a -250 favorite to win.
It's true that Dart performs best on hard courts, but don't think she's good enough to have even a 70% chance of beating Paquet. The Frenchman has struggled on hard courts this summer, but he's played his fair share of matches and has been relatively competitive in his losses. Paquet also has a good combination of serve and forehand and is not afraid of long rallies from the baseline.
The latter point may not be as important, since Dart plays a flat-hitting, low-forgiveness style that should keep most points fairly short.
The odds are likely being boosted by their hard court records and past meetings, but it's worth pointing out that even Dart's 3-0 lead comes with two three-set wins, meaning he hasn't actually been dominant in most of their previous meetings.
At +195, there’s plenty of room to back the 30-year-old horse.
Pick: Paquet ML (+195, via BetRivers)
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Marta Kostyuk (-250) vs McCartney Kessler (+200)
4:30pm ET
Another underdog who I think is a bit underrated in my predictions is Kessler, who just won her first WTA Tour trophy in Cleveland. Of course, it goes without saying that you shouldn't overreact to a 250 event one week before a Grand Slam, but I think the breakout season Kessler has had overall is a bit underrated.
Now 25 years old, the former Gator is ranked in the top 100 and is becoming a more consistent presence on the main circuit.
When she first started playing full-time professionally, I had serious doubts about whether she could become a regular on the main circuit. She clearly lacked power from the baseline and her serve needed to be significantly improved. She has clearly put on size over the last year or so and her ability to take control from the baseline and put opponents on the back foot is much more noticeable. Her serve still has room to improve, but it is encouraging to see clear signs of progress.
Her rallying ability is also unquestionable in my book, and that could be key against Kostyuk.
Like Dart, I’m not going to argue that the Ukrainian isn’t the favorite to go in the second round, I’m just skeptical of that possibility because Kostyuk has two different halves in 2024.
The 22-year-old powerhouse has played in five WTA 500+ tournaments, from the Australian Open to Stuttgart, reaching the quarterfinals or better in four of them, including three consecutive semifinals in San Diego, Indian Wells and Stuttgart, a record that shows just how good she can be when she's in top form.
Since then? In eight tournaments, she has yet to reach a tour quarterfinal (she did reach the Olympic quarterfinals), a span that shows just how hard she has struggled to maintain her top level.
Unstable play has always been a possibility for her, and point construction and the ability to control power when opponents find the right depth are something she still needs to improve on.
I expect Kessler to win the set here, but it wouldn't hurt to bet a little on her money line.
Pick: Kessler +1.5 Set (-132 via BetRivers)
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