The Houston Astros will be attempting damage control after suffering back-to-back blowout losses to the Baltimore Orioles in the series finale on Sunday night.
If Houston had held on, this game could have been turned completely around. The Orioles would have brought in right-hander Dean Kremer to try to avoid a home series losing streak. Instead, the Yordan Alvarez-less Astros will need Yusei Kikuchi to provide some stability and even the series at two games apiece.
Alvarez is uncertain for tonight's primetime game due to a neck injury, but there's still games to play and, more importantly, MLB parlays to make. So let's get right into our Astros vs. Orioles Sunday Night Baseball parlay picks.
Charlie Disturko's Astros vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Parlay Picks
Astros first 5 innings +0.5 (-175)Jeremy Peña 1.5+ bases (+120)Adley Rutschman 1.5+ bases (+135)
Parlay Odds: +750 (bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly, this is a long shot for a reason.
Astros first 5 innings +0.5 (-175)
Astros vs. Orioles | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
We start with the fadeout of right-hander Dean Kremer. Despite two straight good starts in this matchup, Kremer is a negative regression candidate and has a number of fundamental flaws.
First, Kremer's xERA has skyrocketed to 4.94, his worst since 2021. The biggest reason for this is that he's allowed nearly 2% more batted balls. He's not a pro at striking out batters, and his control has worsened (BB% 9.9, up 2.4% from 2023).
Now he'll face a Houston offense that ranks in the top 10 in wRC+ over the past 30 days and is underrated on the road despite Yordan Alvarez's likely absence and the Astros' back-to-back collapses in this series.
Yusei Kikuchi is the much better pitcher in this matchup. While he too has some issues with stopping the ball, he has shown a knack for striking out batters and his xERA (4.03) is his lowest since 2020.
Kikuchi has a truly dominant pitching style, boasting a strikeout rate of over 27% across all four pitch types, and since joining the Astros, he has pitched extremely reliably, posting a 2.42 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings.
Even if Baltimore puts together the better splits, the starting pitching advantage is enough to buy the Astros on the line for the first five innings. Since bet365 doesn't have a moneyline option, I'll take an extra half run for safety on the parlay.
Jeremy Peña – 1.5+ bases (+120)
Astros vs. Orioles | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Jeremy Peña is starting to improve at the plate, climbing up the xwOBA rankings over the past few weeks. The shortstop is also starting to show some power, batting .320 with five home runs and a 50% slugging percentage over the past 15 days.
Peña has excelled against left-handed pitchers, but he ranks No. 1 in Houston among hitters against right-handed pitchers over the past 14 days (159 wRC+), just barely ahead of Yainer Diaz.
Given the high batting average Kremer is allowing, Peña could have a home run in three straight games. He has a hit in 10 of his last 12 games, including reaching second base in eight of those games (75%).
I'd favor Peña to bat in a positive matchup because he's in top form and should bat in the middle of the Astros' lineup and potentially get some RBI if Yordan Alvarez misses his third straight game.
Adley Rutschman – 1.5+ total bases (+135)
Astros vs. Orioles | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
We need to spice up the parlay a bit, so let’s hold our noses and bet on Adley Rutschman’s base totals. The concern about Rutschman is understandable, as he’s batting just .244 over the past month with just six total extra-base hits.
The only saving grace in this matchup is that a left-handed pitcher will be on the mound, and the Astros' relief corps has been pretty unreliable in this series. Rutschman has been nearly useless against right-handed pitchers this season (.225 batting average, .663 OPS), but when he faces lefties he turns out to be an All-Star caliber player (.349 batting average, .948 OPS).
Rutschman has faced Kikuchi 23 times and has continued his trend of success against left-handed pitchers, batting .391 with three home runs and a 1.308 OPS.
Kikuchi has battled hit and barrel issues all season, which is a good thing for a hitter like Rutschman, who hasn’t had much success offensively, but I think this makes him a great buy on the low side and a great way to get the parlay up close to 8/1.
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About the Author
Charlie Disturco is a producer and on-air personality for Action Network. He is the host of Green Dot Daily, Action Network's live betting show that airs every Monday at 3pm ET on YouTube.
Follow Charlie Disturco @charliedisturco on Twitter/X.
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