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MLB (0.5 units) Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins ML (-115; odds via BetMGM): 6:40 p.m. CST, Bally Sports North
The Twins haven't been doing well in this stretch of interleague play, but I think they'll be in good form tonight. With Bailey Ober on the mound, they always have a good chance at home, as they've won five straight games with the big right-hander starting at Target Field. Ober has a 2.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .197 on-base percentage at home, which should help contain a bad Braves offense against the road and right-handers. This ragtag Minnesota lineup will need to beat Max Fried, which isn't always easy. But the Twins have been favored to win at home against lefties all season, so I'm betting on the favored Twins at these low odds.
MLB (0.75 units) KC Royals/Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Over 8.5 (-110; odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CST, Bally Sports GL
Both starters have struggled this season and I think that will show tonight and lead to a lot of scoring. The Royals tend to get into tough competition when Alec Marsh starts on the road, and he has exceeded this total in his past five away starts, averaging 10.0 points per game.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's Logan Allen is doing great at home with a 6.05 ERA. As a result, he is 8-0 as a home starter and has allowed 12.5 runs per game. This offense is loaded with talent, and with the bullpen likely to be depleted in the first game of today's doubleheader, I think this middling scoring rate will be an easy win.
MLB (0.75 units) San Diego Padres/St. Louis Cardinals over 9 (-115; odds via Caesars): 6:45 pm CT on SDPA
This game will feature two very good offenses facing two starting pitchers with a lot of issues in what should be near-ideal hitting conditions. It's a hot, humid day in St. Louis, and the ball should fly well, but that's bad news for Randy Vazquez and Kyle Gibson.
Whenever I see Vazquez start on the road for the Padres, I expect another big battle, as he has a 6.08 ERA and a .343 on-base percentage against opposing batters on the road, and the Cardinals' offense is much better at home and should have an advantage against a right-handed pitcher like Vazquez.
But the Padres should also outplay Gibson here, as Cardinals right-handers have a 4.62 ERA and a .306 on-base percentage against home opponents. San Diego has the best batting average in baseball in road games and outplays right-handers, so Gibson, who is 6-1-1 in his past eight home starts, should outperform those totals again tonight.
Degenerate
There are no corrupters today.
Tiny Nick has earned +95.1 units with the Lock since being in zone coverage.
Each day he presents a lock and a degenerate pick, with lock being the game he is most confident in, and degenerate being the more interesting but riskier pick.
