I don’t know what it says about me, but I genuinely enjoy looking at a full list of college football betting odds.
It's a real treat to see, especially after the interminable college football offseason.
And I don't just love watching the lines, I love checking them multiple times a day to see how they move based on the news and what the betting is going on as kickoff approaches. It's like the stock market for sports, and it's pure fun every week.
And at last, our long national nightmare is over: college football games are back, with packed stadiums.
Praise the Lord.
Last week they were 2-1 in Week 0, with Georgia Tech's double-digit scoring win over Florida State in the Irish being perfect, but this week they won by 15 in their Week 1 game.
DUBLIN, IRELAND – August 24, 2024. Georgia Tech players celebrate winning by lifting the Keogh Norton College Football Ireland Trophy during the 2024 Aer Lingus College Football Classic match between Florida State University and Georgia Tech at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. (Photo by Brendan Moran/Sportfile via Getty Images)
As a general rule, as always, I post my college football betting predictions on Wednesdays and my NFL six-packs every Thursday, but sometimes, like this week, I post my predictions earlier to accommodate travel schedules and anticipation for games. The great thing about Week 1 is that you don't usually have to consider hidden injury issues when it comes to betting.
Plus, like I said before, I'm too excited to wait for this week's picks.
We'll do some sorting through the season before deciding on the 15 winners.
For those of you who want video and audio discussion of the games, we have “The Fade” every Thursday with Kelly Stewart (aka Kelly in Vegas), and we'll be publishing a weekly “Starting 11” to break down all the action we saw on that Saturday each fall.
Plus, for the fourth consecutive season, we'll be watching a big SEC game at the Big Noon.
We will also be adding the Outkick Top 12 heading into the upcoming playoffs, which was voted on by many members of the college football media and former coaches and which we think you will enjoy.
But that's for the future.
For now, let's announce the winners for week 1: As always, #respectthepicks and #getrichkids.
Week 15-0 begins:
Clemson +13.5 vs. Georgia
After several disappointing seasons, Dubbo's Tigers had a chance to put years of disappointment behind them with a shock win over old rivals the Georgia Bulldogs.
ATHENS, GA – APRIL 13: A Georgia Bulldogs football helmet rests on the sideline during the G-Day Red & Black Spring Game at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia on April 13, 2024. (Photo by Jeffrey Best/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But now that Nick Saban is gone, Kirby Smart takes over as the best, dynastic program, the most talented team. But it begs the question: Who is Carson Beck's safety valve now that Brock Bowers has made it to the NFL? Look back at the Bulldogs' games last season. Without Bowers, the Bulldogs might have lost a few games. When they had to make a play, when they desperately needed a conversion, when they had to get a first down, Bowers was there.
Finding a replacement for him will be very difficult, especially in the early part of the season, and I think it will be tougher than many people think.
The schedule is brutal. Road games at Alabama, Texas and Mississippi mean three preseason top-six road games. But that's all in the future. For now, Clemson is playing relatively close games down the stretch. They still have a super-talented roster that could hold a pretty even matchup with the Bulldogs, and they're losing by 10 points.
We'll have Tigers coverage for an early kickoff on Saturday.
Penn State -8.5 vs West Virginia, over 51.5
All James Franklin does is cover.
60% of the time.
That's the case every season, especially in the less-hyped non-Top 10 matchups.
In what was once a great rivalry, the Nittany Lions had more talent than the Mountaineers, even in raucous Morgantown, the closest thing college football has to a Wild West town like Deadwood.
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Aller hands the ball to running back Keitron Allen during a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Ford Field in Detroit. (David Resinek – USA Today Sports)
The Nittany Lions offense is loaded with playmakers and this will be the year Drew Aller puts it together, right?
right?
Penn State won by double digits, but West Virginia also scored points, making it a double win in my Big Noon on Fox debut. (As a side note, I'll be making my Big Noon debut later in the fall with Georgia vs. Alabama. I can't wait.)
Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt +13.5, Under 50.5
One of my big theories about college football is that when coaches are in a tight spot, they go back to what they know best.
Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea is a defensive guy — remember, he made his name building a stout defense at Notre Dame — and in fact, if he'd stayed at South Bend for one more season, he probably would be coaching the Fighting Irish right now.
So I think he's going to be totally focused on defense this camp.
Vanderbilt may lose games this year, but their defense will be vastly improved.
Especially in the first week.
As for Virginia Tech, the Hokies picked up some momentum late, but I think they'll get off to a sluggish start again this year.
I expect the Doles to come into this game with momentum, cover big numbers and keep the scoring low in the process, and for those brave enough to root for the Commodores, a double win in Nashville.
Chattanooga vs. Tennessee -38.5
All eyes in Knoxville will be on Nico and the offensive line.
And that's only natural.
Nico is the most highly anticipated quarterback in Knoxville since Peyton Manning more than 25 years ago.
But while Niko will get all the attention, I think Tennessee will be better and more talented defensively than most expect, especially in the front seven.
What does that mean for Chattanooga?
There aren't many points.
The scoring won't stop when the Vol backups are brought in, and I expect Tennessee to aim for 50+ points while Chattanooga will struggle to score in double figures.
Expect the Vols to win big in their home opener.
Miami vs. Florida +2.5
This is probably the most interesting game of week one for me.
Not the best, but the most interesting.
Billy Napier has the toughest schedule in college football history. That's not an exaggeration. Think about it. Florida's final seven games are: Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, Louisiana State, Ole Miss and Florida State. It would be tough for even a really, really good team to get to 3-4 in that span.
And Florida isn't really a good team.
GAINESVILLE, FL – SEPTEMBER 23: (Right) Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier talks with athletic director Scott Stricklin prior to start of the game against the Charlotte 49ers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 23, 2023 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
So the Gators definitely need to get off to a good start in their first five games.
A win against Miami would give them hope of getting off to a 5-0 start and helping them weather a tough final stretch.
A loss would call into question whether Billy Napier will even be coaching the Gators in November.
I think Florida and its fans will go all out against their old rival in Week 1 and not just cover, but win outright.
Despite all the attention on the Gators, Miami has been terribly inconsistent so far under coach Mario Cristobol. Are the Hurricanes more talented? Sure. But have they looked disciplined enough to walk into an SEC venue and win?
No, not at all.
The Gators will undoubtedly win, but I’ll keep the +2.5 in my back pocket just in case.
Colorado State +33.5 vs. Texas
While most of the attention in Colorado has been on Deion Sanders, Jay Norvell has quietly built a team and seen it slowly improve over his first two years in charge.
The offense is strong, but the defense still has room for improvement.
Texas is undoubtedly a playoff team talent-wise, but the excitement of the SEC season likely has them looking ahead, especially with such big numbers.
Leave it to the Rams to cover Austin.
Old Dominion +21 South Carolina
Old Dominion has taken on major conference opponents early in the season for years.
Just ask Virginia Tech fans.
Now, South Carolina has a new quarterback and the Monarchs have nothing to lose.
An upset would be too much to hope for, but can they overcome a three-touchdown deficit?
It happens.
Western Kentucky vs. Alabama -30.5
Now, this is a gamble on coaching psychology.
Karen DeBoer will be coaching his first game at Bryant-Denny, and while this would normally be a scrimmage for Nick Saban’s teams, I imagine DeBoer would like to get a breather with a big win in Week 1 as the Tide get started under his system.
Again, WKU isn't bad, but I think this game is more important for Alabama than most other season openers.
I think the Tide will have a blast.
My prediction is that WKU will struggle and Alabama will win by 45+ points.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M -2.5, Under 46.5
Look, the Aggies have a ton of talent.
Jimbo Fisher wasn't fired for not signing players, he was fired for not winning close games.
My blood bank guarantee this week is that the Aggies will win this game by a field goal or better.
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 18: Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman smiles broadly after scoring a touchdown during the Wake Forest University vs. Notre Dame game at Notre Dame Stadium on November 18, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Miller/ISI Photo/Getty Images)
New transfer student quarterback Riley Leonard, coached by Mike Elko at Duke, headed to College Station for the night.
A&M's defense is real, and Elko coached well against the Irish last year, but Duke should have won then, so now he can use his entire offseason to prepare for a quarterback he knows better than any coach in America?
Tap your veins, folks: The Aggies won, 20-13, and you’re all toasting my gambling talents with Dixie Chicken.
Plus, if the under hits, you'll get a double win and even more money to spend on drinks at Aggieland.
LSU -4.5 vs. Southern Cal, over 63.5
That number is down from LSU's -6 line to open the season, but it's hard to see why.
LSU has more talent, a more experienced quarterback and a defense that can stop them at times, plus, looking back at last season, Caleb Williams covered USC's awful football quite a bit.
I get it, USC’s defense needs to improve, but haven’t we heard that every offseason of Lincoln Riley’s coaching career?
You really have to see it to believe it.
And until we see that, I expect every good team USC faces to score 38 or more points.
The Tigers easily completed the over with a 45-28 win, earning a fantastic win over the Bayou Bengals in Week 1.
…
Both boys and girls,
We win 15-0.
Get rich, kids.
We'll see you back here in week two. Until then, enjoy your Labor Day holiday and keep on gambling!
