Pedestrians walk in front of graffiti at Athens Is Lava in central Athens on July 12, 2017. This… (+) reflects the heatwaves across the country, with temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius. / AFP PHOTO / Eleftherios Elis (Photo by ELEFTHERIOS ELIS/AFP via Getty Images)
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A recent study has estimated that more than 47,000 heatstroke deaths will occur in 35 European countries in 2023, with Greece and Bulgaria experiencing the highest death tolls due to relentless heatwaves. Researchers noted that this figure is likely an underestimate of the actual number of people who lost their lives to heatwaves in 2023.
“Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly impacting the lives and health of billions of people worldwide, with 2023 being the hottest year on record,” the authors wrote in their study published in the journal Nature Medicine.
Nearly half of all days in 2023 recorded temperatures above the global average surface temperature of 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. In 2016, the Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change, stated that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold would mean a risk of increased occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
“Climate projections show that the 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded by 2027, leaving us with an extremely limited window of opportunity to act,” Joan Ballester Claramunt, lead researcher of the European Research Council (ERC) Integrated Grant EARLY-ADAPT, said in a statement.
“In this context, Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average, increasing the health impacts of summer heat and challenging the resilience of European societies and public health systems,” the authors explained. In 2022, more than 60,000 heatstroke deaths were reported in association with record summer temperatures.
The researchers used temperature and mortality records from 543 million Europeans living in 823 regions across 35 countries to calculate the number of heatstroke deaths across Europe. They found that four major heatwaves contributed to high mortality in the summer of 2023.
“The highest heat-related mortality rates were observed in Southern Europe, particularly in Greece (393 per million), Bulgaria (229 per million), Italy (209 per million), Spain (175 per million), Cyprus (167 per million) and Portugal (136 per million),” the researchers wrote. “We note that these countries have already shown increasing vulnerability to heat over the past few years and periods.”
Their findings further revealed that the climate crisis is exacerbating social inequalities: during the 2023 heatwave in Europe, heatstroke mortality was 55% higher among women compared to men. People aged 80 years and older were the most vulnerable to high temperatures, with a 768% higher mortality rate than those aged 65 to 79.
“Our findings show that adaptation measures in this century significantly reduced heat-related mortality in the summer of 2023, especially among older adults. This finding suggests improved individual behavior and public health measures to reach the most vulnerable populations,” the authors added. “Heat prevention measures were commonly developed and implemented in European countries during this period, especially since the summer of 2003.”
“Therefore, in order to avoid reaching temperature projection tipping points or critical thresholds, it is crucial to implement strategies aimed at further reducing the mortality burden from future warmer summers, in parallel with mitigation efforts by governments and the public,” the researchers concluded.
