China’s trajectory will remain (almost) unchanged
On China, Harris will undoubtedly continue the Biden administration's “invest, collaborate, compete” approach: invest in the United States, collaborate with partners and allies, and compete with China to defend core U.S. interests.
Kurt Tong, a former U.S. ambassador to APEC and former consul general in Hong Kong, said Harris would likely follow Biden's lead on economic relations with China, focusing on technology denial for strategic reasons and sometimes using tariffs to protect key industries threatened by Chinese excess capacity.
“She may be tougher than Biden on human rights and more interested in linking climate policy to trade. Her biggest difference with Trump would be on more traditional trade protectionism, as Trump has promised to significantly and across the board raise tariffs on Chinese goods in a fanciful attempt to balance US exports and imports, whereas Harris is likely to fear that this will lead to inflation,” Tong told me.
In one sense, U.S. economic policy toward Asia is unlikely to change significantly from that of Harris and Trump.
No matter who wins, the United States will never return to a world of free trade.
The Democratic platform states, “For too long, America's trade policies and approach to the global economy have offshoring middle-class jobs, hollowing out supply chains, rewarding corporate CEOs instead of valuing workers, and failing to generate inclusive economic growth,” and calls for “a fairer and more durable world economic order for the benefit of the American people and people around the world.”
The Republican platform goes further, promising to “rebalance” trade through tariffs and calling for the cancellation of permanent normal trading relations between China and the United States.
“Whether it's Harris or Trump, the paradox is that the US will continue to distance itself from trade while other countries in Asia will continue to embrace it,” Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and former president of the UN Security Council, told me.
“The CIA-led governments in the region – China, India and ASEAN – will continue with regional integration while the US stands by under either Harris or Trump,” he added.
