Welcome to “The Opening Pitch,” a column we'll be delivering to you daily throughout the 2024 baseball season.
Opening Pitch's goal is to highlight our daily predictive edge on MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My predictions for all of Thursday's MLB games can be found in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the match pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, August 26th.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert Predictions, Odds and Preview for Today, August 26th
Yankees vs. Nationals
Nestor Cortez Jr. (NYY) vs. Mitchell Parker (WSH)
For the 2021-2023 seasons, Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., has a park factor of 106, making it a scoring environment that is 6 percent higher than the MLB average.
On Monday, with an 86-degree temperature for first pitch and a 4-5 mph wind in right field, I'm adjusting the ballpark's scoring environment to 110, 10% higher than the MLB average, and raising my prediction to 9.62 compared to 9.26 on a non-weather day.
Either starter would do: Nestor Cortes (3.59 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.87 botERA) has pitched seven consecutive scoreless innings, while Mitchell Parker (4.40 xERA, 14% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+, 4.27 botERA) has three quality starts in his past four appearances.
Additionally, while the Yankees rank 1st against right-handed pitchers and 13th against left-handed pitchers, they have performed better against left-handed pitchers in the second half of the season (2nd against right-handed pitchers and 9th against left-handed pitchers).
But both teams' bullpens have been below average, especially since the All-Star break (16th and 26th in xFIP, 21st and 28th in K-BB%). The Yankees have also used nine relievers over their past two games and will likely want to see Cortes pitch longer on Monday.
Bet: 9 or more (-112 or more)
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. Nick Pivetta (BOS)
The Red Sox and Blue Jays are scheduled to close out their June 26th game with a fun moment in baseball history on Monday afternoon before their Monday night matchup.
In a quirk unique to baseball, Danny Jansen, who was hitting for Toronto when games were suspended in June and now plays for the Red Sox, will be Boston's catcher on Monday, becoming the first player in MLB history to play both sides of the ball in the same game. Jansen also remains the only player to ever start at bat.
Unfortunately, Jansen was only 0-1 in the count (not two strikes) before his suspension, or this strange situation could have gone even further and Jansen could have struck out while still officially being the catcher, but the credit for this result would ultimately be given to the pinch hitter.
Both bullpens are relatively well-rested heading into Monday, but with Game 1 requiring the teams to play at least eight innings, their usage and availability that evening remains to be determined.
In cooler temperatures (71 degrees Fahrenheit at first pitch), I projected an 8.57 mark for this match, helping to lower the under from 9.5 to 9.
Jose Berrios continues to struggle on the road, as he has throughout his career (2.81 ERA, 8 home runs allowed in 83 1/3 innings at home; 4.91 ERA, 19 home runs allowed in 73 1/3 innings on the road), but his K-BB% and xFIP are virtually identical on the home and road this season (19.1% K-BB%, 4.33 xFIP at home; 19% K-BB%, 4.54 xFIP on the road).
Additionally, Berrios has been on a roll recently, with four quality starts in his last five games (18.6% K-BB%, 3.6 xFIP), and his pitch modeling metrics (94 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+, 3.51 botERA) point to his best form in 2024 (10.4% K-BB%, 4.60 xFIP through July 28).
Nick Pivetta maintains the highest Stuff+ rating (135) among qualified pitchers, but his xERA has hovered around 4 over the past two seasons (3.94 and 3.98, respectively).
We may adjust our target price depending on how bullpen pitchers are used this afternoon.
Betting: Under 9.5 (9, -105 or over)
Braves vs. Twins
Max Fried (ATL) vs. Bayley Ober (MIN)
The temperature in Minneapolis on Monday was a warm 91 degrees Fahrenheit with a light wind.
Typically, Target Field is a league-average scoring environment (Park Factor of 100 from 2021-2023), yet given the warmer temperatures, I would expect nearly 5% more runs than the MLB average, benefiting both offenses and increasing my projected total from 8.03 to 8.53.
Max Fried walked three or more times just 10 times in 83 games from 2020-2023, but has done so 11 times in 22 starts this year and is dealing with injuries and fatigue as he becomes a free agent this winter.
Fried's K-BB% fell by nearly a third year-over-year (19.9% to 13.7%) and his xERA increased to 3.73, his highest since 2019 (2.73 in 2023, 2.85 in 2022, 3.47 in 2021, 2.88 in 2020, 3.86 in 2019).
Bailey Ober (3.34 xERA, 20.1% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+) allows a ton of fly balls (49% career) and has home run issues (1.35 HR/9 career), but the Braves (11th in fly ball rate) could exploit that on a good day.
Bet: 7.5 or more (8, -110 or more)
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Shawn Zerillo's MLB predictions and projections for Monday, August 26th
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Atlanta Braves / Minnesota Twins, over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u), ESPNBet (bet 8, -110), Chicago Cubs / Pittsburgh Pirates, over 8 (-115, risk 0.5u), BetMGM (flat -119 or 8.5, -101), Chicago White Sox F5 (+128, 0.5u, FanDuel (bet +108), Colorado Rockies (-108, 0.5u), FanDuel (bet -115), Cleveland Guardians, Game 1 (+113, 0.5u, bet +104), Cleveland Guardians, Game 2 (-105, 0.5u), ESPNBet (bet -113), Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Game 2 over, 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) (bet -108) on FanDuelMiami Marlins / Colorado Rockies, over 10.5 (-105, 0.5u) (bet -112) on CaesarsNew York Yankees / Washington Nationals, over 9 (+100, 0.5u) (bet -112) on BetMGMSan Diego Padres / St. Louis Cardinals, under 9 (+100, 0.5u) (bet -112) on BallyBetToronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox, under 8.5 (-118, 0.5u) (bet 9, -105) on FanDuel
About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University School of Law and passed the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He transitioned from a legal career into sports data and betting, working in baseball video scouting and financial regulatory compliance before joining The Action Network in 2019. As a Senior Writer and Analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA predictions using his proprietary models, contributes to a variety of digital content and podcasts, and has become a leading authority on baseball, MMA and horse racing betting.
Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.
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