After three years in office, a long time by modern standards, Fumio Kishida will no longer be Japan's prime minister after September. With the exception of the late Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime ministers seem to change so frequently that it might not seem important who is actually the leader of the country.
But it certainly matters when it comes to Japan's defense, which has made extraordinary progress in recent years. There are fears that a change of prime minister could reverse course in Japan's efforts to strengthen its defense, as has been the case historically.
There have been some periods of relatively rapid and visible progress, but overall, things are not moving faster or slower than Japan would like to move.
And there was nothing that would provoke undue criticism of the Asahi Shimbun or upset the ruling LDP's coalition partner, the Komeito Party, or even the “left” faction within the LDP.
So Japan will do what is easy, not what has to be done, regardless of the regional situation and the growing threats just outside Japan's borders.
For over a decade, these threats have been unmistakable. The People's Republic of China has been ready to teach Japan a lesson, and now it has the tools to do so. Its friends in Pyongyang and Moscow will likely chime in.
Japan's defense progress over the past few years has been extraordinary, though it could have been made sooner, and Kishida deserves credit for having the good sense not to unduly impede that progress.
These improvements did not happen by chance: Kishida's two defense ministers, Kihara Minoru and Kishi Nobuo, were the best of the 40-plus defense ministers (or Defense Agency directors-generals) I've had since I began covering Japan in the early 1990s. First of all, they were eager to learn their fields, which set them apart from 90% of their predecessors.
Kihara has some excellent advisers and trusted officials throughout the bureaucracy who have quietly supported the initiative, including the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff of the Self-Defense Forces, Gen. Yoshihide Yoshida, who is excellent and understands Japan's defense requirements.
But this may not last as the new prime minister reshuffles his cabinet and assembles a new team, and the focus may be even more on domestic issues that keep the LDP in power than on defense issues that keep Japan safe and independent.
For most Japanese politicians and citizens, defense has not been a priority. The Japanese public assumes that “someone” is responsible for Japan's defense. While many politicians and most citizens are wary of China, that does not mean defense is a vote-getter and worthy of focused effort and clear thinking.
This is true in many, if not most, democracies. With the exception of a few — Sanae Takaichi (current Minister of State for Economic Security) and Diet member Takayuki Kobayashi — it is unclear whether defense is a priority for most prime ministerial candidates.
But what about Shigeru Ishiba, the leading candidate for prime minister and former defense minister and former director-general of the Defense Agency, who looks great on paper but whose expertise is questionable as much as he thinks he is?
In Japan, there are supporters in business and political circles, including within the Liberal Democratic Party, who believe that “we must not provoke China” and “we must do business with China.” And winning over the Chinese elite has been just as successful in Tokyo as it has been in Washington, DC.
It should not be surprising, therefore, that there are moves to seek a “reset” with the People's Republic of China to “calm things down.”
This does not mean that Japan's defense will be ignored. There will be some momentum, but it may become less intense and less focused. Some will say that this is just a minimum measure to ensure that the US will provide Japan's defense and fill in any gaps.
But isn't Japan building warships and submarines, including in collaboration with Britain and Italy, and acquiring advanced fighter aircraft?
Yes, but Japan's navy and air force are only about half the size they need and there appear to be no serious plans to address the problem, while a lack of recruits is also contributing to the problem.
So what about preparing the SDF, and Japan as a whole, for war? That's a clear goal, but progress toward it has been difficult, although there has been some progress. And it could get even harder if Kishida's successor has other priorities.
Therefore, who becomes Japan's next prime minister is extremely important.
Any Japanese prime minister, whoever he may be, has the authority to do whatever is necessary regarding defense, if he has the courage to do so. All that is needed is leadership, will, and explaining to the public what needs to be done and why.
That's difficult. It would be easier to just go with the flow, but Japan's next leader cannot afford to do that.
Grant Newsham is a former U.S. Marine Corps officer and former U.S. diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer in the Japan Self-Defense Forces and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of When China Attacks: A Warning to America.
