Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter that focuses on key issues concerning the relations of the European Union, NATO, and other institutions with the Western Balkans and Europe's eastern neighbors.
I'm Rickard Jozwiak, RFE/RL Europe editor, and this week we're digging into one big question: what to expect from the EU this fall.
Briefing: A busy autumn in Brussels
Autumn in Brussels usually gets into full swing by mid-September, when the European Commission president delivers a speech to the European Parliament on the State of the European Union (known to EU officials as “SOTEU”). The speech usually lasts around an hour and outlines the policy priorities that the EU executive aims to start or complete in the coming months.
But this is not a normal Brussels autumn, because the EU is now in the middle of a political transition. In June, EU leaders decided that former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa would replace Charles Michel as European Council President, effective December 1. A few weeks later, the European Parliament approved the EU leaders' decision to give Germany's Ursula von der Leyen another five-year term as head of the European Commission. But instead of announcing a new SOTEU in September, von der Leyen will be busy assembling a new team of 26 commissioners, one each from the other EU member states. Some capitals have already presented their own commission candidates before the August 30 deadline. Once von der Leyen has finished interviewing all the candidates, she will assign policy portfolios to each one.
Call the raven and fire Oliver?
For now, only one name and position are known: In parallel with the appointments of Costa and von der Leyen in June, EU leaders decided to appoint Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as the EU's next foreign affairs chief, replacing the outgoing Spaniard Josep Borrell. But this is not set in stone. Like the other 25 commissioner candidates, Kallas will face tough hearings in the relevant European Parliament committee. In Kallas's case, it is the Foreign Affairs Committee, whose members will also be fully committed to selecting the next Enlargement Commissioner, whoever that may be.
According to EU diplomats, Kallas's hearing is scheduled for September 29th. In fact, it will dominate the Brussels news cycle in late September and early October. The hearings are an opportunity for the European Parliament to flex its muscles by rejecting several commission nominees it deems inadequate in their questioning. (The last time, in 2019, the European Parliament rejected three nominees, after which it became the responsibility of their “sponsor” countries to quickly nominate new people for new hearings.)
One target of MEPs is Hungary's candidate commissioner Oliver Varhelyi, newly appointed by Budapest after five controversial years as EU enlargement chief. Accused by many diplomats of putting Budapest's interests above those of the EU, Varhelyi has been friendly to Serbia and Georgia but not so much to Ukraine. He also had a heated microphone incident at the plenary session, calling MEPs “idiots.”
While it is unlikely that Varhelyi will be reappointed as enlargement minister, she will certainly face the tough task of convincing lawmakers that she is fit to serve in whatever role von der Leyen assigns her. Some hope that the commissioners and the new European Commission as a whole will be approved by the European Parliament so they can start work on December 1, but a longer wait cannot be ruled out.
Not So Hawkish After All
None of the EU officials I spoke to believes that Kallas's admission is really in jeopardy. But it will still be interesting to see what Kallas and the next Enlargement Commissioner have to say about Ukraine, Russia, the Western Balkans, and the prospects for EU enlargement. I don't expect any radical changes in this area. EU policy is rather to fully support Ukraine and to push for enlargement once the EU is reformed and the candidate countries meet all the prerequisites. But the emphasis and how these messages are delivered will be important.
Kallas came to the position with a reputation as a “Russia hawk” and is perhaps the first EU foreign policy chief to take such a strong stance against Moscow. Of course, it is worth noting that the EU as a whole has moved closer to the Baltic states' views on Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two and a half years ago, but when her name first emerged there were doubts that she might be too outspoken for the EU's top diplomat.
Therefore, when she meets with MEPs, we can expect her to tone things down a bit and to talk about more than just Russia and Ukraine. Indeed, it would not be surprising if she spoke at equal length about the war in Gaza, relations with the southern Mediterranean countries, and the need to strengthen ties with other powers in the so-called “Global South,” including Brazil and India. It is also possible that her first trip abroad in her presumed new role will be to EU aspirants in the Western Balkans rather than Ukraine, simply to highlight the importance of these countries.
We also hear diplomats in Brussels expect her to be ready to tackle head-on the fractious EU-led Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. In 2020, the EU's current foreign policy chief, Borrell, appointed former Slovak foreign minister Miroslav Lajcak as the EU's special representative for that dialogue, but little substantive progress has been made and, with Kallas in charge, it seems likely that the function may be scrapped altogether.
Will the EU be enlarged?
It will also be interesting to see who von der Leyen will choose as the Commissioner for Enlargement. With EU enlargement once again being a hot topic, with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine recently invited to join the EU and the latter two seen to be making substantial progress, more EU member states are showing interest in getting the portfolio, unlike in 2019 when only Budapest seriously pushed for it and got it. It would be a real surprise if another “Eastern” member state were to get the Enlargement portfolio of the Commission, as Estonia, considered an “Eastern” member state in Brussels, got a foreign policy position. My guess is that von der Leyen will look to the South or West to ensure geographical balance and avoid accusations that the EU is only focused on Ukraine. The thing to watch out for with the Enlargement Commissioner is of course any mention of a date when the next EU enlargement may take place.
It's nearly impossible to guess exactly when any country will join the EU, but the most recent high-level attempt to set a deadline came last year when outgoing European Council President Michel called for the EU to be ready for enlargement by 2030. Of course, this is not something the president decided, and he's leaving office soon anyway. But in reality, even that date seems ambitious, since none of the candidate countries seem particularly close to joining. But the focus, both at the hearings and over the next few years, is likely to be on the reforms the EU itself must make to accommodate the new member states.
Discussions are already underway, but if Brussels is serious, these changes will have to happen quickly. Will the EU budget be increased (all current candidate countries are poorer than the EU average)? And what political reforms will be needed for an EU that could go from 27 to well over 30 member states in the next few years? There's a lot of talk about reducing the veto opportunities of national capitals, but doing it without anyone vetoing such a move in the first place is a huge challenge. One concern that we won't hear about this fall is that the EU itself is not ready to expand.
Positive reports on (parts of) the Western Balkans?
Separately, the outgoing European Commission is likely to publish its annual Enlargement Report outlining the progress (or lack thereof) between EU member states. It will likely have a positive tone for Moldova and Ukraine, but don't expect them to open their EU accession chapters this year. The examination of both countries (where the EU will look at their domestic legislation and highlight how it needs to adapt to EU rules and laws in various policy areas) should be completed in the first half of 2025 if all goes well, and only then could negotiations begin in earnest.
Georgia, which has been in a deepening conflict with the EU for years, will likely not be pleased with the report. No substantive progress is expected, and the EU will likely take into account how free and fair the October 26 parliamentary elections were before deciding on further action. The EU has already suspended high-level visits and military aid to Georgia, citing a recently enacted “foreign influence” law, and further sanctions loom if the situation worsens.
Meanwhile, for some Western Balkan countries, real progress towards EU membership may await this autumn. It cannot be ruled out that Montenegro may close some chapters of negotiations that have not been realized since 2017. This would show that Podgorica is at least moving forward again, albeit slowly, after years of being fixated on EU membership. Montenegro remains the leading candidate among the candidate countries, with all 33 chapters towards membership open, and finally some chapters are beginning to close.
There is also speculation that Albania will begin de facto accession negotiations this fall and ultimately secede from North Macedonia, as Skopje has yet to amend its constitution to reflect member state Bulgaria's demands. Few expect North Macedonia to achieve this feat this year. Meanwhile, some countries are calling on Serbia to open its accession chapter, but that may still be a long way off for an EU member state unsettled by Belgrade's close ties with Moscow.
The Battle of Budapest
Political decisions may also be made this autumn. More funds will need to be raised to support Ukraine, and frozen Russian assets could be tapped. Hungary, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, has kept Brussels on edge all summer. The EU is unlikely to help Budapest secure Russian oil imports as requested, and the issue of Hungary relaxing work visa conditions for Russian and Belarusian nationals will continue to make waves, even if concrete EU action is unlikely.
Both issues are expected to come up when EU foreign ministers gather in Brussels on Aug. 29. The informal meeting had been scheduled to take place in Budapest, but Borrell decided to move it to the EU capital after several member states declared they would boycott the meeting in Hungary following Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's surprise visit to Moscow and Beijing in early July.
There are two other Hungarian issues worth noting this autumn: First, Budapest's refusal to approve the eighth installment of the European Peace Facility (EPF) for Ukraine (500 million euros worth of military aid), which has been blocked for nearly 18 months and is unlikely to yield during Hungary's EU Presidency, despite increasing member state pressure in the coming months.
Plus sanctions against Russia and Belarus. Just before the Hungarian presidency took over on July 1, the EU passed its 14th restrictive measure against Moscow and a set of sanctions against Minsk. Most EU diplomats I spoke to agreed that no new sanctions will be proposed, as Hungary, which has repeatedly questioned the effectiveness of sanctions, is unlikely to accept them during its six-month presidency. The question is whether the European Commission, which usually proposes new sanctions, is willing to test its resolve, especially if Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure intensify this fall.
Future outlook
From August 30th to September 1st, the Globsec Forum, Central Europe's largest think tank event, will be held in Prague. Political leaders and experts will discuss security and defense, EU and NATO enlargement, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and more. I will be attending all three days and share my impressions in the next issue of my newsletter on September 3rd.
That's all for this week. Please feel free to contact me with any questions about these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak or by email at [email protected].
Until next time,
Ricardo Jozwiak
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