College football season officially begins this weekend, which means there's no time left to make predictions. Now you can either take the chance of being thought a fool, or risk people finding out you're a fool in a perhaps even more embarrassing way.
I'm someone who never misses an opportunity to show off my stupidity.
So let me be the one millionth person on the internet to share my predictions for the Big Ten this season, but with the completely original concept of presenting the B1G Time Preseason Awards. The B1G Time Preseason Awards are the most prestigious preseason awards in the entire college football world, if not in civilized society. Winning this award is the pinnacle of human achievement. And even if you fall short, it's still a reason to keep living, because it was worth the effort.
Let’s get started right away.
Conference Champions – Ohio State: Can the Ohio State Buckeyes achieve the rare dual feat of winning a regular season championship following an offseason championship? I definitely think so!
To be honest, with the long offseason and seemingly endless preparations leading up to the start of the season, I sometimes find my brain working against my will. I can't tell you how many times I was asked, winter, spring, and summer, who I thought would win the league, and the answer was always Ohio State. At one point, I got tired of repeating the same answer, and I thought about changing it, but I didn't have enough influence to change my mind.
Sure, Ohio State might not win the Big Ten — they haven't won since 2020 (as you may have heard) — and Oregon, Penn State and Michigan (teams that have won the past three years) could win it, but you're lying to yourself if you think any of those teams have a chance to win it.
The Buckeyes played a great defense last season, kept some key players and got even stronger with the addition of Caleb Downs. Offensively, they lost Marvin Harrison Jr. but still have one of the deepest wide receiver corps in the country, adding Quinshon Judkins to an already talented running back corps and replacing Kyle McCord with the much more mobile Will Howard.
Is the offensive line a concern? Yes, but that's the kind of concern that could prevent the Buckeyes from winning a national title, not the kind that would worry them about winning the league.
Offensive Player of the Year – Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: Bo Nix passed for 4,508 (470) yards and 45 touchdowns last season. Dillon Gabriel passed for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns with the Sooners, but on 86 fewer passes. Nix averaged 9.6 yards per pass while Gabriel averaged 9.5. He will throw more passes with the Ducks than he did with the Sooners, and will likely finish the season with numbers closer to Nix's.
The Big Ten has received a lot of criticism over the years for its lack of passing attacks, and rightfully so. Only two passers in league history have topped the 4,000-yard mark, and both of them played at Ohio State. C.J. Stroud threw for 4,435 yards in 2021, and the late Dwayne Haskins threw for 4,831 in 2018. If Gabriel stays healthy, he could break Haskins' record, but if he doesn't, he'll still win the award if he tops 4,000 yards.
Defensive Player of the Year – Mason Graham, University of Michigan: Defensive tackles rarely win postseason awards because they often play defensive tackles and rack up voter-collecting tally stats, but make no mistake: Graham is the best defensive player in the conference.
His closest competition may be teammate Will Johnson, who is impressive in his own right, but I believe the attributes Graham brings to Michigan's defense are the most important.
As the sport (and the Big Ten) becomes more pass-oriented, the ability to collapse the pocket and pressure the quarterback from the inside becomes immeasurably important, and while nearly every QB can roll out left or right when pressured from one side, nearly all of them panic when the center or guard suddenly finds themselves forced back into their knees.
Graham does that on a daily basis, and considering he’s lined up alongside another interior star in Kenneth Grant, I’m not sure how many offensive lines in the country can handle him.
Freshman of the Year — Dylan Raiola, Nebraska: It's a close race between Raiola and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, but I'm going with Raiola because he'll be the starting quarterback for Nebraska. Smith is talented, but he'll have to share touches among an offensive line full of other talented players.
Raiola is seen as something of a savior for the Cornhuskers, who desperately need success this season. I worry that expectations are too high, but I'm confident Raiola will have a mostly successful season. If he performs at his best, Nebraska may make a trip to Indianapolis. But even if Raiola experiences typical rookie struggles, the Cornhuskers should still make their first bowl game appearance since 2016.
This Year's X-Factor — Alex Orji, University of Michigan: It's not breaking news that there have been a lot of changes at Michigan this offseason, but as a result, there are more question marks than ever about the reigning national champions. The biggest question is what the Wolverines will do at quarterback.
Alex Orji has not been officially named the starter, but I am assuming he will be. How he performs in that role will have a major impact throughout the league. We know Michigan's defense will continue to be top-notch. We don't know how effective Michigan's offense will be.
Orji hasn't shown much passing ability so far in his career, but we know he's a dynamic player who can change games with his feet. If he can hone his passing skills and force defenses to attack the Wolverines head-on, Michigan could win its fourth consecutive Big Ten Conference title. If not, this team is going to lose four games.
Teams with Less Expectations Than Others – Rutgers: There are a lot of expectations placed on Rutgers this offseason, and I think some of them are misguided. I mean, while I admire Greg Schiano's track record and the overall direction of the program, there's been too much focus on Rutgers' schedule and not enough on the talent.
After all, this team still has a lot of questions on offense. The last time Ahsan Kaliakmanis played for Minnesota, he completed 53% of his passes for 6.3 yards per pass. Sure, those numbers are better than Gavin Wimsatt's, but they're not enough of an improvement to warrant the kind of leap I expect.
You've heard people say Rutgers is a College Football Playoff contender, that this team should be in a bowl game, but they won't say much more than that.
Teams with Less Expectations Than Others — Illinois: Two years ago, Illinois started the season 7-1 but lost steam late and finished with an 8-5 record. Last season they went 5-7 and didn't miss a bowl game. Because of this, there are a lot of negative comments about the team heading into 2024, and it's not surprising some feel that way. There's no question about it, as Illinois hasn't built a lot of credibility on the football field.
However, if we take a closer look at last season, the team's final three losses were by a combined eight points, and while there is good reason to believe the defensive struggles the team experienced last year will continue, there is also reason to believe the offense can be very effective.
Illinois should have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and history has shown that Bret Bielema's teams perform pretty well with a good offensive line. In a season where there aren't many strong offensive lines outside of the top four teams, Illinois' scoring could be the deciding factor in a coin toss game. My expectations aren't that high — they have a preseason win average of 5.5 and many prognosticators have them in the bottom third of the league — but this team seems like a solid bowl game team to me.
Stadium of the Year – Northwestern University's Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium: This may seem silly, but in a season where the Big Ten is adding four new schools, to me the most exciting change is the state of Northwestern University's stadium. The Wildcats will be playing their games in a temporary stadium that they converted from their practice field on the shores of Lake Michigan.
For those of you who have never lived near the shores of Lake Michigan, wind is a scary factor. I look forward to seeing what kind of chaos it wreaks on passing attempts and kickers at every game played there. The potential for comedy is high.
B1G Time's Big Ten Projected Standings
A couple of things are worth commenting on here: First, eight teams finishing 5-4 or 4-5 is a strong reflection of how similar many of the Big Ten's teams are once you get past the top four programs. The truth is that the second tier could go in a variety of different directions and will depend on which team is most injury-resistant and perhaps has the best kicker.
Then there's the order I listed the teams in. The Big Ten announced their tiebreaker rules on Monday, but I'm not smart enough to use them myself, so I decided to “break” ties by putting the team with the better overall record on top if they have the same conference record. If both have the same overall record, I've listed them in alphabetical order.
Why didn't the Big Ten use alphabetical order as the actual tiebreaker? Perhaps they feared Illinois dominance.
Random Big Ten stats from this week
There's been a lot of jokes about Iowa's offense in recent years, and for good reason. But did you know an Iowa quarterback led the league in passing yards more recently than Wisconsin? Let's take a look at the last time a quarterback led the league in passing yards at each Big Ten school.
Give a shout out to Taulia Tagovailoa, who led the league in passing yards last season, becoming the first QB from a “new” school in the league since 2014 to do so.
Maryland
Taulia Tagovailoa (3,377)
2023
Ohio State University
C.J. Stroud (3,688)
2022
Pennsylvania State University
Trace McSorley (3,570)
2017
Indiana
Nate Sudfeld (3,573)
2015
Michigan State University
Connor Cook (3,214)
2014
Illinois
Nate Scheerhaas (3,272)
2013
Northwestern
Mike Kafka (3,430)
2009
Purdue
Curtis Painter (3,846)
2007
Michigan
John Navarre (2,905)
2002
Minnesota
Cory Souter (2,578)
1996
Iowa
Chuck Hartleb (3,310)
1988
Wisconsin
Ron Miller (1,487)
1961
It wouldn't be a surprise if Gabriel wastes no time adding Oregon to this list.
Follow your intuition
Each week, I pick Big Ten games against the spread based solely on my gut feeling about the numbers — just a feeling, not digging into the numbers — and I may even track my own record to publicly embarrass myself. Odds are the SportsLine consensus.
No. 23 USC vs. No. 13 LSU in Las Vegas: My initial impression going into this game was that if both teams maintain their defensive form from last season, the scoring differential between the two teams could approach 100 points. Both teams are using new quarterbacks, but I rate LSU's Garrett Nussmeyer higher than USC's Miller Moss, despite him scoring six touchdowns in last season's bowl game. With that in mind, I have to side with the Tigers here. LSU -4.5
