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MLB (0.5 units) San Diego Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CST, Bally Sports MW
After giving up seven runs last night, the Padres are in a good position to get some action on offense again tonight. Most of their offense last night came against struggling right-handed pitchers at home, and fortunately, that will be the same here. Miles Mikolas has had some epic blunders at Busch Stadium this season, with a 5.94 ERA at home.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Padres have been the best hitting team on the road in MLB this season and have a great record against right-handed pitchers as they showed last night. They also tend to support their ace Dylan Cease pretty well, scoring just over five runs per game, so we can expect another good day from the Padres offensively.
WNBA (0.5 units) Las Vegas Aces/Dallas Wings over 180.5 (-110; odds via Caesars): 7:00 p.m. CST, on NBA TV
This total is on the rise, but I think that's to be expected. There may have been a noticeable trend of the under cashing in since the league returned from hiatus, but these two teams are perfect to break that trend. The Aces have struggled offensively in recent games, but there's no better opponent than Dallas to help them get back on track.
The Wings are allowing the most points per game in the league, averaging 90.9 points. Since returning from the Olympic break, they've only gotten worse, allowing 98.0 points per game. They're not likely to slow down, even with their ace down the stretch, as they've already given up triple-digit points to Dallas this year.
For the Wings, this is a losing season, but with Sato Sabaly back and healthy, their offense is fast-paced and dangerous, and can exploit the struggling Ace defense. But Vegas will also step up the tempo and take more 3-pointers. That should be the secret to them being able to beat the high total in this game.
Degenerate
There are no corrupters today.
Tiny Nick has earned +95.9 units with the Lock since being in zone coverage.
Each day he presents a lock and a degenerate pick, with lock being the game he is most confident in, and degenerate being the more interesting but riskier pick.
