Welcome to the 2024 NFL Wins Calculator, my primary tool for calculating overall season win numbers.
To adjust for available odds, click here to download Sean Koerner's win totals spreadsheet.
I use a variety of metrics when determining how I rate teams, including the team's current roster, potential injuries or suspensions that may affect the odds for a given week, the coaching staff, etc. I also use NFL Luck Rankings .
Other matters considered each year include:
One-Score Record: A team's record in one-score games. The idea here is that we can assume that a team will finish with a roughly 50/50 record in one-score games. If a team finishes a few games above/below .500 in one-score games, the market will usually over- or under-value that team based on one-score luck. My logic is that I always assume that a team's luck will regress to the mean in the following season.
Injury Luck: Compared to the previous season, this tells us which teams had the best or worst injury luck. Although injuries are unpredictable, they can have a big impact on a team's end-of-season performance. Therefore, in the next season, the injury luck of all teams is expected to be closer to the average.
Pythagorean Wins: This calculation estimates a team's record based on point differential. Teams that finish significantly higher or lower than their predicted record may be based on luck, especially the luck of a one-score record.
I try to take all factors into consideration before finalizing my bet. The final step before finalizing your bet is to find the best odds available. The number of wins market can be tricky as bookmakers may offer different numbers on different money lines. This is where my number of wins calculator comes in handy. Since you are predicting the chances of each team finishing with exactly X number of wins, you can calculate the odds for each number of wins.
I already have a few books in my tool, but you can use the calculator column to input your win total along with the over/under prices you have access to and get a % edge that will be displayed based on my simulation.
2024 NFL Win Predictions
To adjust for available odds, click here to download Sean Koerner's win totals spreadsheet.
Falcons over 9.5 wins (-140, BetMGM)
The Atlanta Falcons have a ton of talent on offense, with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts being some of the best young players at their positions, but since losing Matt Ryan, the quarterback has played poorly and the offense has struggled.
Desmond Ridder was the starter last season and had an EPA that was 43rd out of 46 qualified quarterbacks last season. To solve this issue, Atlanta acquired Kirk Cousins, who was ranked 4th. To say the Falcons' QB play should improve this season is an understatement. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson comes from Sean McVay's coaching tree, which should benefit this team.
Defensively, the Falcons were 24th in DVOA last year, but the expectation is that they will improve under new head coach Raheem Morris, who was hired after three seasons as the Rams defensive coordinator. Atlanta also made bold moves, signing Justin Simmons to a one-year, $8 million deal and acquiring Matthew Judon in a trade that would provide a much-needed upgrade to the pass rush.
The defensive line would also be strengthened if Grady Jarrett can stay healthy this season, after the two-time Pro Bowl selection missed nine games last year, leaving a gaping hole up front.
According to my latest strength of match rankings, the Falcons are projected to have the easiest schedule and have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Both the offense and defense can be significantly improved this season, and I would be invested in this team to make a big leap from a seven-win team to a double-digit win team this year.
Buccaneers under 7.5 wins (+122, FanDuel)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won nine games last season, but their performance could take a regressive turn.
The Buccaneers ranked 10th in injury luck, but had their key offensive players healthy for all 19 games last season (including the playoffs). Any games without key offensive players will likely result in worse injury luck than they will in 2023.
Former offensive coordinator Dave Canales seems to be the QB whisperer, having not only helped Baker Mayfield resurrect his career last year, but also Geno Smith with Seattle in 2022. Smith's play regressed after leaving Seattle for Tampa last year, and with Canales now in Carolina, Mayfield's could slump as well if Canales makes a difference.
If the Falcons and Panthers improve significantly this season, the Buccaneers will face tougher competition in the NFC South. At least for the Falcons, I'm already invested at over 9.5. This bet correlates pretty well with the under 7.5 for the Buccaneers here.
Steelers under 8.5 wins (-130, BetMGM)
The Pittsburgh Steelers rank last in my buying and selling luck rankings by number of wins.
Pittsburgh was 10-7 last year, but 9-2 in games won by one point. Generally speaking, one-point records aren't very predictive, and you can assume that most teams will be around .500 in games won by one point. Following this logic, if the Steelers had won 50% of their one-point games, they would have been closer to being a seven-win team.
I also like to look at their projected record by time of game when they are tied/leading/behind, and even by that measure they were projected to win about 7 games, plus Pittsburgh was behind in 4 games going into the 4th quarter but ended up winning and leading the league.
Sure, a lot of this can be attributed to great coaching — head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season — but the streak needs to be stopped, and there's enough concern here that I'm willing to erase Tomlin's long-running winning streak.
I remember when the Ravens ended their historic preseason winning streak, I didn't bet on them because I thought the Commanders should have been favored in that game. But the market overcorrected by the Ravens' winning streak. I think this number of wins may have gone up because the market didn't want to bet against Tomlin's trend.
It's still possible that Russell Wilson or Justin Fields could finish higher than Kenny Pickett, but based on EPA/play last season, Wilson (26th), Fields (24th) and Pickett (27th) were all at the same level.
Wilson and Fields have a penchant for holding onto the ball, both QBs ranked in the top six for most time spent throwing passes and both had below-average sack rates from pressure last year, which is concerning as they'll be playing behind an offensive line that features three first- or second-year players.
The Steelers face the second-toughest schedule this year, according to my strength of schedule rating. Last year, they were fortunate to face backup quarterbacks in four of their six division games. Those two matchups included a matchup against the Bengals after Joe Burrow's season-ending injury and a matchup against the Ravens in Week 18 when their starters were given a week of rest after clinching the No. 1 seed.
The Steelers are unlikely to get that lucky this season, and I don't see them getting more than 8.5 wins this season.
About the Author
Sean Koerner heads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports predictions and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he is a top expert in the field and has been ranked #1 in FantasyPros accuracy rankings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts a popular podcast and can make predictions on any sport, making him the go-to source for accurate sports predictions.
Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.
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