Major upsets are rare, but they do happen. Only two athletes have won medals despite being outside the top 10 in predicted finishes: Kenneth Lukes (15th) in the steeplechase and Ronald Kwemoi (17th) in the 5,000 meters. Both athletes won silver medals. The biggest upset among the gold medalists was shot putter Roger Storna, who entered the event with the eighth-highest world ranking of the field. Grant Fisher, who won the bronze medal, beat his predicted finish of 10th in the 10,000 meters to take home the first of his two medals at this year's Olympics.
Whether it's Kenneth Luke sprinting bravely for an unlikely medal in the steeplechase or Noah Lyles living up to expectations in the 100 metres, Olympic track and field events are sure to entertain spectators.
Note:
1. Personal bests (PBs) were originally used to determine projected finishing times, but some race results have been excluded based on World Athletics standards. For example, Helen Obiri's PB is listed as 2:25:49 on the start list. However, she won the 2023 Boston Marathon and ran over four minutes faster (2:21:38). The Boston Marathon course has elevation changes that exceed the threshold to qualify.
2. For further context, when Molly Seidel won the bronze medal in Tokyo she was ranked 199th in the world, which was 36th among those competing, meaning she was 33 places higher than expected.
3. Four gold medalists were not on the world rankings before competing in the Olympics: Beatrice Chebet (10,000m), Winfred Mutir Yavi (3,000m steeplechase), Arshad Nadem (javelin), and Sydney McLaughlin Lavron (400m hurdles). Many of these athletes were expected to win their events but had not competed enough in races to be on the world rankings before the Olympics.
4. Paul Hoff-Mahoney gave a detailed recap of the women's shot put on Day 9 of the Torch Talk, calling it a “very eventful competition” due to bad weather and some big upsets.
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