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Visualizing the situation around 3700 B.C.
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Credits: Hofheim City Magistrate; LEIZA-Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie, Architectura Virtualis 2020 www.leiza.de/kapellenberg
(Vienna, 26 August 2024) – Since the end of the last ice age, human population growth has not been uniform, but has been characterized by periods of rapid increase followed by abrupt decline. The reasons behind these fluctuations are still only partially understood. Previous work by CSH scientists Peter Turchin and Daniel Conder, and a team of international collaborators, demonstrated that social conflicts, rather than or in addition to environmental factors, may have had a major impact on these patterns. Now they have added another piece to the puzzle.
Wars and conflicts not only cause direct casualties, but also create an atmosphere of suffering and fear. This fear influenced where and how people settled, which may have had a major impact on the development of European populations, as shown in a study published in the Royal Society journal Interface.
Escape and overpopulation
“Around the world, scientists have extensively studied and debated the presence and role of prehistoric conflict, but its impact on things like population numbers remains difficult to estimate,” explains Daniel Condor from CSH. “The picture is further complicated by potential indirect effects, such as people leaving their homes or avoiding certain areas out of fear.”
The findings suggest that indirect effects of conflict could have caused significant long-term population changes in non-state societies such as Neolithic Europe (c. 7000-3000 BC). “Our model shows that fear of conflict led to population declines in potentially dangerous areas. As a result, people concentrated in safer locations, such as on hilltops, where overpopulation could lead to higher mortality and lower birth rates,” explains Conder.
Consistent with archaeological evidence
Continued threats would make much of the remaining land unsettled. Co-author Detlef Groenenborn from the Leibniz Centre for Archaeology (LEIZA) in Mainz, Germany, adds: “The results of the simulation study correspond well with empirical evidence from archaeological fieldwork. For example, the site of Kapellenberg near Frankfurt, dated to around 3700 BC, has many examples of groups withdrawing to better defensible locations, investing heavily in extensive defensive systems such as walls, palisades and ditches, and temporarily abandoning agricultural land.”
“The concentration of people in specific, often well-defended locations may have led to growing disparities in wealth and the creation of political structures that legitimized these differences,” adds Peter Turchin of the CSH. “In that sense, the indirect effects of conflict may also have played an important role in the emergence of larger political units and early states.”
Complex systems science meets archaeology
To simulate the demographic dynamics of Neolithic Europe, the researchers developed a computational model. To test the model, they used a database of archaeological remains and analyzed the number of radiocarbon dates for different locations and time periods, with the assumption that this reflects the scale of human activity and, ultimately, population numbers. “This allows us to examine the typical amplitudes and time scales of population growth and decline across Europe,” explains Conder. “Our goal was to mirror these patterns in our simulations.”
In the future, the model can help interpret archaeological evidence, such as signs of overpopulation or land use patterns, providing the necessary background information and data to further refine the model. This is a typical example of the interdisciplinary collaboration that CSH aims to foster. “We use methods from complexity science to develop mathematical models to analyze the rise and fall of complex societies and identify common factors,” Turchin explains. This involves collecting vast amounts of historical data, which are managed in specialized databases such as the Seshat Global History Databank. “Direct collaboration with archaeologists is crucial to get the most complete picture possible. This study is a great example of the potential that such interdisciplinary collaboration can have,” Condor emphasizes.
About CSH
The Complexity Science Hub (CSH) is a European research centre studying complex systems. We extract meaning from data across disciplines, including economics, medicine, ecology and social sciences, as the basis for practical solutions to create a better world. Founded in 2015, the centre has grown to over 70 researchers, driven by the growing demand to truly understand the networks that underpin society, from healthcare to supply chains. We develop capabilities to address today's and tomorrow's challenges through a complexity science approach that combines physics, mathematics and computational modelling with data and network science.
journal
Royal Society Interface Journal
Research Methods
Computational Simulation/Modeling
Research Topics
people
Article Title
Landscapes of fear: Indirect effects of conflict may cause large-scale population declines in non-state societies
Article publication date
August 28, 2024
Conflict of interest statement
The researchers declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
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