Current hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have stoked fears of a conflict that would further destabilize an already troubled Middle East. An attack and counterattack between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border and on the Golan Heights on August 25, 2024 raised the possibility of all-out war.
The assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr in Beirut have raised fears that Iran and its three proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis) could retaliate, plunging the country into all-out war and igniting a broader Israel-Hamas conflict as well as Iran-Israel hostilities. As tensions rise, important questions remain about the likelihood of Hezbollah plunging the country into all-out war with Israel and the impact that would have on the region.
Representation in Disputes
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is deeply influenced by the strategic power struggle between Iran, the United States, China and Russia, each of which has its own strategic interests. Iran is Hezbollah's main backer, providing it with financial assistance, weapons and training, making it a powerful proxy in the power struggle between Israel and the West in the region. Any escalation by Hezbollah is in effect an extension of Iran's regional interests and application of its proxies.
The United States is a close ally of Israel, providing it with military, economic and diplomatic support. Although the United States seeks to defuse tensions, full support for Israel could antagonize both Iran and Hezbollah, threatening their influence and strategic interests. For this reason, the United States, along with the United Kingdom and several other Western countries, maintains a military defensive posture in the region.
Russia and China also play proxy roles, though their involvement is less complex and more strategic. With a strategic footprint in Syria and diplomatic ties with both Israel and Iran, Russia could be a reliable intermediary, but more importantly, it wants to maintain its influence in the Middle East.
China is focused on geopolitical economy in the region and promoting its Belt and Road Initiative, so its power strategy is to strengthen its influence and protect its investment, energy and strategic interests in the region by publicly promoting stability in the region and reducing the role of the United States.
Together, these countries form a geopolitical and strategic security matrix, balancing their own strategic interests with the risks of broader escalation.
Possibility of war
On July 27, 2024, a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights killed 12 young men and Israel blamed Hezbollah, causing a sharp rise in tensions. In response, the Israel Defense Forces killed senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in an airstrike in Beirut on July 30, and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran the following day. Hostilities between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah further escalated on August 25, 2024, with an exchange of violent attacks and counterattacks, raising fears of all-out war. The exchange consisted of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah firing rockets and drones into northern Israel and the Golan Heights, possibly in retaliation for the assassination of a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut.
Will Hezbollah go to war with Israel?
As the war raged, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged messages saying neither wanted to escalate further. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the operation was “over” hours after attacking Israel, escalating tensions. The United States also urged both sides to de-escalate, but neither side showed any signs of ending their role in the broader conflict.
A return to the exchange of attacks and counterattacks that has characterized fighting since October 2023 is possible in the near future. But escalation into a broader, more devastating conflict remains unlikely. Both Israeli and Hezbollah leaders say they no longer want all-out war but are fully prepared if enemy hostility leads to it.
Impact on the region
The ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel have further exacerbated an already volatile Middle East situation. The region has long been a hotspot of instability, with several conflicts threatening peace. The hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel have the potential to trigger ripple effects and large-scale conflict, adding new complexities to the fragile regional situation.
One of the most significant impacts of instability is the humanitarian crisis it has caused. Violence has forced the displacement of around 200,000 people on both sides, with southern Lebanon and northern Israel bearing the brunt of instability. The destruction of infrastructure such as homes, schools and hospitals has exacerbated the suffering of those affected and created a dire need for humanitarian assistance.
The conflict could destabilize and trigger chaos in a country already struggling with hyperinflation, unemployment and a collapsing currency. Further escalation could lead to further political instability and spark a wider regional crisis.
Global impact
Given the pivotal position of the Middle East as a major energy supplier, hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel have serious implications for global energy stability. Destabilization could lead to disruptions in energy supply chains, higher prices, and impacts on the global economy. Escalating tensions could threaten key oil supply routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, through which the majority of the world's oil passes, with knock-on effects on a global energy crisis that could affect the entire transportation system, economic stability, and manufacturing.
In addition to the energy market, the conflict could also affect international diplomacy. The United States and Western countries are closely monitoring this scenario, given their strategic interests in the region. The conflict also complicates peace-making efforts between Israel and Hamas, which are at a critical stage of negotiations towards a settlement. Moreover, the conflict has strained relations between Western countries and Iran and Hezbollah, which could hinder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.
The conflict also challenges the credibility of the United Nations in its mandate to maintain peace and security, and the resolve of the international community to mediate and resolve the conflict as it impacts global stability.
Impact on India
West Asia is India's vast neighbour and has a major stake in the stability and security of the region. India imports 80 percent of its crude oil from the Gulf region and cannot afford any disruption to its “Viksit Bharat” mission. Any disruption in energy and other supplies or blockage of trade routes could lead to price hikes and inflationary trends, hindering the growth trajectory. The welfare and security of over 9.5 million Indians living and working in the Gulf region could also be caught up in this attack. Israel is a major military supplier to India. India is pursuing connectivity projects through the Middle East in terms of the India-Central and European Economic Corridor (IMEC). This will have adverse effects.
From a strategic perspective, India has sought to strike a strategic balance with Israel, Iran and the Middle East to advance its national interests. The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel complicates this balancing act. However, India has traditionally preferred diplomatic solutions and advocated for peace and stability in the region while maintaining bilateral relations with Israel and key Arab countries.
Conclusion
The complexity of this potential catastrophe highlights the interconnectedness of regional and global stability. The de-escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah is crucial for peace and stability in the region. Although both sides have avoided full-scale conflict, the potential for escalation remains high. The coming weeks will determine whether the current hostilities are contained or escalate into full-scale conflict. Diplomatic efforts at both the global and regional levels must be undertaken to prevent escalation and facilitate the ongoing peace negotiations in Doha.
The author is a former Director General of Mechanized Forces. The opinions expressed in the above article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Firstpost.
