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As climate change accelerates, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are of increasing concern to public health officials. Europe, with its ageing population and varying levels of climate adaptation, is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of rising temperatures. Recent studies predict that under worst-case climate scenarios, heatstroke deaths in Europe could increase more than 30-fold by the end of the century. Without urgent action, this looming crisis could result in tens of thousands of additional deaths each year across the continent.
Heat Wave: The Silent Killer
The study highlights the growing threat of heat waves, sometimes called the “silent killer” because they appear gradually and inconspicuously. Unlike sudden natural disasters, heat waves can last for days, causing long-term stress for vulnerable populations, especially the elderly, those with underlying health conditions and those living in urban areas with limited access to cooling.
The study presents sobering figures: if current trends continue, Europe could experience around 90,000 heatstroke deaths per year by 2100 under a high emissions scenario. By comparison, an estimated 70,000 lives were lost in a European summer heatwave in 2003. These figures speak to the potential for even more devastating loss of life if global temperatures continue to rise. The study warns that in this worst-case scenario, certain countries in southern and central Europe, including Italy, Spain and France, could experience up to 40 additional heatstroke deaths per 100,000 people per year by the end of the century.
Vulnerable populations at risk
The study outlines how climate change will disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including older people, children and those with chronic conditions such as cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. For example, due to their increased susceptibility, the study predicts that by 2080, people aged 65 and over could account for more than 70% of heatstroke deaths in Europe.
Cities are expected to be the hardest hit, especially those lacking green space and efficient cooling infrastructure. Urban areas create a “heat island” effect, where concrete and asphalt trap heat and make the area significantly warmer than the surrounding countryside. In southern European cities such as Rome and Madrid, heatstroke deaths could increase to 20 per 100,000 people per year by 2080.
The role of climate adaptation and mitigation
While rising global temperatures are the main driver of increased heatstroke mortality, the study highlights that effective adaptation and mitigation strategies could significantly reduce the projected number of deaths. In a scenario in which global warming is limited to 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement, the number of heatstroke deaths could be reduced by more than half.
The study identifies several adaptation strategies that can help mitigate the impacts of extreme heat, including retrofitting buildings to improve their insulation, increasing the use of air conditioning, expanding urban green spaces, and introducing early warning systems to help residents prepare for upcoming heat waves. The researchers also highlight that public awareness campaigns can play an important role in helping communities take preventive measures during extreme heat events.
Policy implications
The findings have major implications for European policymakers: the study suggests that without intervention, heatstroke mortality rates across European countries could rise up to 30 times higher than today by the end of the century. In Central Europe, for example, the rate is projected to increase from 0.7 per 100,000 people in 2000 to 21.8 per 100,000 by 2100 under the highest emissions scenario.
In light of these dire predictions, the study calls for immediate and sustained investments in climate adaptation and mitigation. The implementation of climate-adaptive urban planning, energy-efficient housing, and resilient public health infrastructure will be crucial to prevent catastrophic loss of life. Cross-sector collaboration between environmental, health, and urban planning agencies will be essential to prioritize vulnerable populations and ensure they have access to resources that can mitigate the impacts of extreme heat.
