Just 30 golfers remain in contention for the 2024 Tour Championship, some of whom secured spots last week while others were eliminated. Keegan Bradley made the biggest jump by winning the BMW Championship, moving up from 50th to fourth in the FedExCup standings. Justin Thomas just about qualified for the 2024 Tour Championship at 30th in the standings, meaning he is 10 strokes behind first-place Scottie Scheffler when play begins at 11:16 a.m. ET on Thursday. All golfers competing are allotted starting strokes based on their position in the standings, but Scheffler has not been able to maintain a starting stroke lead for the past two years.
The 2024 Tour Championship odds list Schauffele as a +100 favorite (bet $100 to win $100) and Xander Schauffele as a +220 favorite. Schauffele will start two strokes behind Schauffele, but is he worth it when it comes to 2024 Tour Championship betting? Before locking in any 2024 Tour Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to check out SportsLine's proven golf predictions and projected leaderboards from our computer model.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been immensely popular since the PGA Tour returned in June 2020. In fact, the model has made over $9,500 on its top bet since the restart, winning tournament after tournament.
This same model had already predicted 13 majors by the end of the week, including the 2024 Masters (a third consecutive Masters), this year's PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed the model has made huge profits.
With the field set for Tour Championship 2024, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results are astounding: Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Tour Championship Golf Predictions
One surprise is that McIlroy, a four-time major winner and one of the favorites to win, didn't finish in the top five this week. McIlroy starts the week six strokes behind Scheffler, which was the same position the Northern Irishman was in when he won the 2022 Tour Championship. But he's had a much better season overall, recording 10 top-10 finishes and three wins in 16 tournaments.
McIlroy has just six top 10 finishes in 18 tournaments this season and just one individual win. He has failed to finish in the top 10 in three of his last four tournaments, missed the cut at the British Open and finished tied for 68th in the first playoff. The SportsLine model does not believe in McIlroy's current form and bettors appear to be underestimating the three-time Tour Championship winner.
The model also looked at where Schauffele might finish. Prior to this season, Schauffele's best career results were a win at the 2017 Tour Championship and a gold medal at the 2020 Summer Olympics. The 30-year-old Schauffele finally had his breakthrough in a major championship this season, winning the PGA Championship and the British Open this summer.
Schauffele will be looking to become the first golfer to win multiple majors in the same year since Brooks Koepka in 2018, and now he'll be looking to win his second career TOUR Championship. Schauffele is second in the FedExCup standings, so he enters the tournament two strokes behind Scheffler. With five top-five finishes in the past six TOUR Championships, Schauffele should be considered for TOUR Championship betting. The model has locked in its Xander Schauffele TOUR Championship picks here.
How to choose the 2024 Tour Championship
In addition to revealing where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele rank, the model has identified three golfers with odds of 35-to-1 or better to win. Bet on these longshots and you could hit the jackpot. See the model's predictions exclusively here.
Who will win the 2024 TOUR Championship? And which longshot will surprise the golf world? Check out the TOUR Championship 2024 odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the TOUR Championship projected leaderboard from a model that has accurately predicted 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
2024 Tour Championship starting scores, winning odds
Get our complete picks, best bets and predictions for the 2024 Tour Championship here.
Scottie Scheffler (-10) +100
Xander Schauffele (-8) +220
Hideki Matsuyama (-7) +1200
Keegan Bradley (-6) +3000
Ludvig Auberg (-5) +1600
Rory McIlroy (-4) +1800
Collin Morikawa (-4) +3500
Wyndham Clark (-4) +4000
Sam Burns (-4) +3500
Patrick Cantlay (-4) +4000
Lim Sung-jae (-3) +9000
Sahith Teegala (-3) +20000
Shane Lowry (-3) +20000
Adam Scott (-3) +12500
Tony Finau (-3) +9000
Ahn Byung-hun (-2) +35000
Viktor Hovland (-2) +7000
Russell Henry (-2) +12500
Akshay Bhatia (-2) +35000
Robert McIntyre (-2) +35000
Billy Horschel (-1) +20000
Tommy Fleetwood (-1) +10000
Sepp Straka (-1) +40000
Mathieu Pavón (-1) +75000
Taylor Pendris (-1) +40000
Chris Kirk (E) +50000
Tom Hogue (E) +50000
Aaron Lai (E) +50000
Christian Bezuidenhout (E) +50000
Justin Thomas (E) +30000
