The PGA Tour season concludes once again at East Lake. Our staff makes their Tour Championship predictions and explains their betting strategies below. It's no surprise to see the names of the season's two best players, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, pop up again and again.
Let's take a closer look at how this campaign ended.
Tour Championship Predictions and Best Bets
Favorites we support
Matt Gannon: Scottie Scheffler +100 (DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Collin Morikawa +2800 (Caesars)
Greg Waddell: Scottie Scheffler +100 (DraftKings)
Spencer Aguiar: Xander Schauffele +230 (bet365)
Best Long Shot
Matt Gannon: Chris Kirk +7000 (bet365, Shadow Leaderboard)
Tony Sartori: Sam Burns +4500 (Caesars)
Greg Waddell: Wyndham Clark +4000 (DraftKings)
Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy +2000 (I wouldn't expect more if I use starting strokes)
Fading Players
Collin Morikawa: Matt Gannon
Tony Sartori: Scottie Scheffler
Greg Waddell: Hideki Matsuyama
Spencer Aguiar: Keegan Bradley
Tour Championship betting strategy
Matt Gannon: The key stats I'm looking at this week are approaches and around the green.
Firm fairways provide a path to success for both the hard hitter and the planner off the tee, with the second and third shots being key, and firm greens reduce green-in-regulation percentages, giving the best iron players a chance to shine with their iron game.
It's normal to see thick rough and harmless bunkers on this course, but things have changed this year. Andrew Green came in and decided to cut down the edges even more and make these bunkers really sharp. You need a complete game this week. I expect fewer birdies than usual this week.
TONY SARTORI: The Tour Championship returns to East Lake, which has hosted the event every year since 2004.
East Lake is a par-70, 7,490-yard course designed by Donald Ross and recently renovated by Andrew Green. If that sounds familiar, it's because Green also renovated Ross's Oak Hill Country Club for the 2023 PGA Championship.
With that in mind, approach play and putting will be evaluated at East Lake, as they always have: Every player who finished in the top four at this course last year finished in the top seven of the field in strokes gained: putting, the only stat or metric where that trend was evident.
Greg Waddell: Let's not get too crazy. It's tempting to root for a surprise winner this week who will come out of nowhere and overtake Scottie Scheffler (who has been pretty awful lately) and Xander Schauffele. But the reality is, the initial stroke advantage they gain will be a big factor.
East Lake is expected to play as well as it looks, and the champion this weekend will be decided by approach play and putting.
If you are looking for value outside of the top two favourites to win, play the Top 5 or Top 10 finish markets instead. Another option is the No Starting Strokes Winner market, which only takes into account scores from this weekend.
Don't overthink it. Scottie Scheffler has been so dominant this season. His approach game is amazing. And now he's leading? Insert Stephen Curry's “goodnight” celebration.
Spencer Aguiar: We've done the same thing in this industry every year at the Tour Championship since they switched to staggered starts, and while half of us would say the shortfall is easily overcome as we watch golfers recover from similar shortfalls every Thursday night and after, the other 50% believe the majority of the field has a dead draw and only a select few have a shot at winning at East Lake.
The course changes may widen the field slightly, but since the FedExCup rules change, only Viktor Hovland has won while scoring less than 53% of his points at these locations, meaning the majority of the points will come from just a few places, which naturally makes the course more difficult to close.
Tour Championship Picks
Fleetwood has been hitting the golf ball in stripes for the past two months and has just finished outside the top 10. He's used to playing from the back and finishing on top by the backdoor, and in a 30-man field where you start a few places back from the leader, this is par for the course for Fleetwood.
Every week he starts slow and finds himself too far back to win, then he kicks in and does what he does best – finishes at the front. I'm hoping he can kick in before the start this week, because before the start I could see he was starting from the back.
Clark started the tournament tied for sixth (four under par) and is already near that rank, making him an intriguing +290 prospect, but it also begs the question: who will he beat?
I think there are a few fade candidates among the current top 5. Scottie Scheffler hurt his back on his way to finishing T33rd at last week's BMW Championship, the first time he's lost a stroke on his approach since 2022. Scheffler started here from pole position last season and finished T6th.
Another absent golfer is Hideki Matsuyama, who withdrew from last week's BMW Championship with a back injury. Matsuyama has not finished in the top eight in any of his previous four starts at East Lake.
The final player who could fall back this week is Ludvig Aberg, who has never competed professionally at East Lake and is just one stroke ahead of Clark.
Once again, we return to the well for Cantlay, who has a great track record at East Lake, finishing T7 or better in each of his past three starts, with his 2021 win being the highlight.
Cantlay is performing better than his peers in both strokes gained putting and strokes gained around the greens, so returning to a course where he's only known success should be a relief for him.
And most importantly, every other candidate outside of Scheffler and Schauffele has big question marks: Matsuyama withdrew last week, Rory McIlory is hit-or-miss and Aberg will dread seeing his own shadow on Sunday.
Outside of the two big dogs, Cantlay at 12-1 is a fantastic value.
With all the questions swirling, if you want to say this week is a break, I don’t care.
Will the rebuild of East Lake change the requirements? How will the available prize money affect the contestants? Which one is too far gone to win? What should you do with that huge upfront hold percentage when betting on the FedEx Cup winner? And all of these questions are before we even discuss no-starting-stroke betting, an area of the market where there's a lot of concern when no one knows where they stand.
Yesterday I wrote in my “Best Bets” file about why I thought Schauffele would win the FedExCup title, so check that out if you want a deeper look at my thoughts, but I've argued many times this year that Schauffele is closer to Scheffler than people realize, and he'll have a chance to prove that claim on a course where his average score is just under 14 under par (excluding starting strokes).
Add to that Schauffele's 8 under par outside of last season and that total would win every edition of the contest.
About the Author
The Action Network is a team of experienced sports betting experts specialising in a wide range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream sports such as cricket and darts. The staff includes renowned analysts such as Sean Koerner and Stuckey, who are known for their accurate predictions and in-depth knowledge of sports. The team is dedicated to providing expert analysis and the best daily bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed on all major sports.
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