The San Diego Padres (76-58) and St. Louis Cardinals (65-67) meet in the third of a four-game series on Wednesday at Busch Stadium. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:45 pm ET. Break down Padres vs. Cardinals odds from BetMGM Sportsbook and make your best betting predictions and forecasts from MLB experts.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2
The Padres won their opener on Monday, 7-4 as +113 underdogs, but won 7-5 on Tuesday as -139 underdogs after the over was hit in both games. San Diego won their third straight game when first baseman Jake Cronenworth hit a game-winning RBI single in the seventh inning. The Padres are three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West and three games behind the Atlanta Braves for the second NL wild card spot.
The Cardinals led 5-4 going into the seventh inning and had a 75.5% success rate after one out in that inning, according to ESPN Analytics. The third-place Cardinals are 10.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central and seven games out of the final NL wild-card spot.
Padres vs Cardinals predicted starting lineup
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Andre Pallante
Musgrove (4-4, 4.43 ERA) is making his 14th start and has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 65 innings.
Last start: 7-0 home win against the New York Mets on Friday, win, 7 innings, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts 2024 road record: 1-1 in 4 starts, 5.63 ERA (16 innings, 10 ERA), 1.88 WHIP, 7.9 strikeouts per 9 innings 2024 vs. Cardinals: Won in a 3-2 win on April 3, 6 innings, 1 ERA, 5 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts Career record vs. Cardinals: 3-7 in 12 starts, 4.87 ERA (64 2/3 innings, 35 ERA), 1.38 WHIP, 10.3 strikeouts per 9 innings
Pallante (6-6, 3.84 ERA) will be making his 15th start and 24th appearance. The 25-year-old Pallante has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 86 2/3 innings.
Last start: Friday vs. Minnesota Twins, 6-1 win, win, 7 innings, 1 run, 5 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts 2024 home record: 11 appearances (7 starts), 4-4, 4.85 ERA (42 2/3 innings, 23 runs), 1.41 WHIP, 7.0 strikeouts, 9 strikeouts 2024 vs. Padres: April 3, 3-2 loss, no decision, 1 inning, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 1 strikeout Career vs. Padres: 2-0 in 5 relief appearances, 2.35 ERA (7 2/3 innings, 2 runs), 8 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
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Padres vs Cardinals odds
Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. For the complete list, visit the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.
Money Line (ML): Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165) Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Padres vs Cardinals predictions and forecasts
prediction
Padres 4, Cardinals 3
Money Line
The Padres have won the past three meetings between these teams and are 3-1 in Musgrove's past four starts.
The Cardinals have struggled since catcher Willson Contreras (broken finger) was hit by a pitch in the fourth inning of Saturday's game against the Twins. Including Saturday's loss, St. Louis is 1-3 since losing its leader in on-base percentage (.380) and has just a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.
Bet on the Padres (-125).
Against run line/spread
Cardinals +1.5 (-165) will probably cover the run line, but it's hard to stay profitable long term in MLB betting on lines with such large vigs.
Pass. Bet ML and the total instead.
Over/Under
Though the past two meetings have been high-scoring, both starting pitchers have performed well in recent games: Massgove has a 0.57 ERA (15 2/3 innings, one run allowed) in three starts in August, while Pallante has allowed two runs or fewer in three consecutive starts.
Bet on less than 8 (-105).
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