This weekend, East Lake Golf Club will host the final round, bringing to a close an incredible PGA Tour season as the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs conclude. A huge $25 million first prize is up for grabs for the player who tops the leaderboard at the 2024 Tour Championship, and that player will not only take home a huge amount of prize money, but also an important trophy as one of the top golfers of the year.
Few players have more at stake than Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. Scheffler is coming off a whirlwind season with six PGA TOUR wins, including the Masters and the Players Championship, and a shot at an Olympic gold medal. Schauffele won his first major at the PGA Championship and followed that up with his second at the British Open two months later. Both players have had incredible seasons so far, and Schauffele is the favorite to win PGA TOUR Player of the Year, but a win for Schauffele would make the race much tighter.
Which feat is more impressive? CBS Sports experts debate the issue below. Also, check out our FedEx Cup Playoff recap, with details on the final 30 competitors and what will happen over the next 72 holes at East Lake.
Scheffler (-10) leads the way, with Schauffele (-8) two strokes behind. Behind them, in the top 10 entering East Lake, are Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Keegan Bradley (-6), Ludvig Oberg (-5) and the quartet of Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay (-4). With 72 holes to go, the rest of the top 30 are between 7 and 10 strokes behind Scheffler.
The shifting of the leaderboard positions favors golfers who have had great seasons thus far, but the advantage is not so great that players lower down the leaderboard cannot advance. So the player who has the best performance at the Tour Championship may not be at the top of the leaderboard at the end of play on Sunday, but with so much prize money on the line this weekend – the top nine finishers all earn more than $2 million – every position on the leaderboard matters.
So what will happen at East Lake? Let's take a look at a series of predictions and picks from CBS Sports experts to predict who will win and what will happen in the final PGA Tour event of the season.
Expert predictions for the 2024 Tour Championship
Kyle Porter, Senior Golf Writer
Winner — Xander Schauffele (5/2): It seems like a sure thing that Schauffele will win this tournament. He has been dominant on the golf course, with a true stroke gain of 3.55, nearly a stroke per round better than the next best player in the field (playing at least 8 rounds). Plus, he's mentally better than Scottie Scheffler. If Schauffele wins, he'll have won two majors and the FedEx Cup, but the fact that he may not get the honor makes the PGA TOUR Player of the Year race that much more interesting.
Sleeper — Rory McIlroy (18-1): Completely dominated East Lake, at 4 under and playing from a position where he's won this tournament before (he trailed Scheffler by six strokes to start the 2022 tournament). His golf hasn't been consistently good since the U.S. Open, but he's found something where he clearly loves to play and is 16-1 odds on winning if he stays focused this week.
Top 10 Players Who Can't Win — Scottie Scheffler: Too bold, you say? Not so with Scheffler. He's never won a FedEx Cup Playoff event and had his worst week in two years last week at the BMW Championship. It's clear he doesn't enjoy the playoffs and there are just too many tough competitors behind him.
Biggest Jumper on the Leaderboard – Tommy Fleetwood: Fleetwood is in a good position to play from. He starts the tournament 22nd in the rankings, nine strokes behind Scheffler. That should give him some freedom to play and he's played some great golf recently, finishing in the top 25 in three straight tournaments, including two top fives, since missing the cut at the Open in July.
Biggest Faller — Keegan Bradley: Outside of Scheffler, Bradley will experience the biggest fall. He has risen to fourth in the FedExCup standings, but that doesn't align with how he's playing in 2024. It would be pretty incredible for him to play and win the FedExCup, but the opposite is more likely.
Who would have a bigger accomplishment if they won, Scheffler or Schauffele? That's a tough one, but I'm leaning toward Scheffler, even though neither has won the FedExCup. And eight wins in a single season — Masters, Players, Olympic gold medals and a FedExCup title — is a record that will likely never be achieved again. That's what Scheffler is on the line for this week at East Lake.
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Xander Schauffele (5/2): Repairs or no repairs are not an issue for Schauffele at East Lake. The golf course is different than in years past, but the bones are the same. Schauffele won his rookie debut in 2017, had the lowest score in 2020 and finished second in the FedExCup last year after tying with Viktor Hovland for the division. He is the most well-rounded player in golf and it's time to hoist the silver medal this weekend.
Sleeper — Rory McIlroy (18-1): It's hard to say what a sleeper is in this tournament with all the scoring spread, but McIlroy, who needs to close the six-stroke gap on Scheffler, should count. Most notably, Rory completed the biggest comeback in FedExCup playoff history, and he did it from the exact same stroke deficit just two years ago. He's got a little more competition in front of him this year, but after coming up short at the majors (including a heartbreaking loss at the U.S. Open) and the Olympics, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him dominate again in Atlanta.
Top 10 Non-Winners — Scottie Scheffler: It's the end of the year, so let's do something bold. Scheffler has come into the Tour Championship two strokes behind the leaderboard the past two seasons, finishing runner-up and tied for sixth in each event. I don't have high hopes for his performance at the BMW Championship, but with a sore back, Schauffele close behind him and a dislike of the format, I can see world No. 1 Scheffler leaving East Lake in pole position at 0-for-3.
Biggest mover on the leaderboard — Billy Horschel: Hovland might be trailing at 2 under here, but I'll go with 1 under Horschel for a shot up. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has been playing impressively over the past month with three consecutive top 10s and a strong showing at the BMW Championship. His tee-to-green game is back and his putting has always been at the top of his game. He's a key part of the U.S. Presidents Cup team and Horschel will be hoping to impress captain Jim Furyk when he plays at East Lake.
Biggest faller on the leaderboard — Keegan Bradley: The BMW Championship winner starts in fourth place at six under, but don't get complacent here. Bradley hasn't been in great form this season, but he has had some decent results with three top-10 finishes and two top-20 finishes. His performance at East Lake hasn't been the best, and with the likes of Ludvig Oberg, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa close behind him, he looks to be trending in the wrong direction.
Who would have the bigger accomplishment if they won: Schauffele or Schauffele? Schauffele had an incredible season in major championships, but Schauffele had a historic season. The FedEx Cup is definitely Schauffler's to win. A win would give him seven PGA Tour wins, tying him with Tiger Woods in 2007 and Tom Watson in 1980, and that doesn't include the gold medal from the Paris Olympics. Schauffler would also tie Jordan Spieth and Jason Day with 13 PGA Tour wins. Here's a fun little backstory.
Adam Silverstein, Editorial Director
Winner — Xander Schauffele (5/2): Scheffler is the best player in 2024, but Schauffele is arguably in the best form, even though Scotty outplayed Xander at the Paris Olympics. East Lake may be back, but Schauffele is at home in Atlanta and has dominated the course at every opportunity. A two-stroke deficit is easy to overcome over nine holes, but even more so over 72. I have faith in other players this week, but no one is better than Schauffele at this stage of the season.
Sleeper — Viktor Hovland (66-1): The reigning champion needs to close the gap on Scheffler by two strokes per round. It's a tall order, but one he's capable of doing. The St. Jude Championship reminded us that players of Hovland's caliber aren't that far off. He got off to a middling start at the BMW Championship, but his ball striking continues to shine. He's recorded seven consecutive rounds in the 60s at East Lake.
Top 10 Players Who Don't Win — Keegan Bradley: It's easy to root for Bradley these days, especially if you're an American golf fan who saw his disappointment in “Full Swing” last year when he wasn't selected for the Ryder Cup team. It was great to see Bradley come out on top and win the BMW Championship last week, but his level of play doesn't suggest he's credible enough to compete against players of that calibre two weeks in a row, much less win the final two tournaments of the season.
Biggest Jump Up the Leaderboard — Billy Horschel: I'm a little biased because I'm always happy to see my fellow Orange and Blue succeed, but this was a great way to end the season for Horschel. He had a great run in the FedExCup 10 years ago, and as Patrick mentioned, playing his best this week will improve his chances of making the Presidents Cup. Even if Horschel's play isn't what excites modern fans, golf is just that much more fun when he plays well.
Biggest Faller in the Rankings — Wyndham Clark: Despite a strong second half of the season, Clark hasn't been at his best under pressure this season. He missed the cut in three of the four majors and finished tied for 56th at the U.S. Open. With a spot already secured in the Presidents Cup, Clark will be playing solely for the prize money. This is certainly appealing, don't get me wrong, but his motivating factors are completely different than others in the field.
Who would get the bigger win, Scheffler or Schauffele? Definitely Scheffler. Schauffele was outstanding late in the season, but Scheffler looked headed for a breakout season until his arrest at the PGA Championship. Since then, Scheffler has had a relatively up-and-down (for him) season, but his dominance in major tournaments has carried him through the year. The Olympic gold medal was a big badge of honor for Scheffler, but the FedEx Cup is like a cartoon-sized bag of money on your shoulder. It won't count toward the season record, but the $25 million bonus on top of the money he's already won would be awesome. He'd also probably get the PGA Tour Player of the Year award, which he's already won. Seven PGA Tour wins hasn't been achieved in 17 years.
