Mike Somich's NFL Week 1 picks:
I always find week 1 to be one of the hardest weeks to bet on. These lines have been under consideration for months. It’s like a Saturday night in a normal weekly betting cycle. For example, the Packers vs Eagles game has already seen two moves. The Eagles started at -1.5, the Packers took the money, and now the Eagles are being bet at -3.
Additionally, it's hard not to bet on offseason opinions. The Raiders vs. Chargers matchup in Week 1 is a great example. I have tickets for the Raiders over the win total and tickets for the Chargers under the win total. This is obviously a high-leverage game on either total, but in a game I power-rated with Pick 'Em, I can bet the Raiders at +3.5. My numbers clearly show I should bet the Raiders on the points plus moneyline, but having a four-unit game in Week 1 just doesn't look all that appealing.
Top NFL Resources:
Teasers are also less certain about Week 1. Last year I wrote about how teaser performance changed dramatically after Week 6 of the 2022 season. The logic applies to the numbers as well. Early in the season there is more variance because we don't have real data on these teams. The market is much more likely to be wrong in Weeks 1-4 than it is in Weeks 8-11.
I like to chase totals, and one in particular caught my eye.
I've set the odds of winning this game much higher than they are now. Seattle will have the advantage on defense, but how sure is it going to be in Week 1? Mike McDonald's strategy will take time to execute on defense with new personnel. Denver has performed better than expected with Bo Nix at QB in the preseason, and they should be willing to go all out at this position as the Dogs trying to keep up with Seattle's offense.
Plus, Seattle will look very different offensively this year. Gone is the slow, run-loving Seahawks offense. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, a University of Washington alumnus, will be a three-wide, yard-running attack. Putting Jackson Smith-Njiba in the slot would give Seattle an effective weapon and flip their playing speed from last in the league to the top half.
Neither team has a strong pass rush, so there should be time to throw passes to both Nicks and Smith.
NFL Week 1 Predictions: Broncos/Seahawks 41.5+
