The 2024 college football season is one of drastic change across the entire landscape. The consolidation of teams has resulted in super conferences finally becoming a reality. And with the College Football Playoff tripling in size from four teams to 12, leagues like the Big Ten and SEC will expect to place multiple teams in the field on an annual basis.
Within this new playoff format is the chance for things to get really strange. Because the top four conference champions will be awarded a first-round bye, it’s entirely possible for traditional blue bloods that normally expect to occupy one of the top two or three spots in the four-team CFP to fall all the way down to No. 6 or lower if they do not win their conference championship game. Conversely, programs that have been absent from the CFP in the past may find themselves with a top-four seeding.
The unveiling of the first 12-team CFP remains a few months away. For now, our team of college football experts at CBS Sports gave their best, educated prediction on how the bracket will look — and who will win it all. Additionally, our experts made their picks for the most overrated and underrated teams in the country, plus predictions for this year’s national coach of the year and Heisman Trophy winner.
Expert picks for all of these categories can be found below as we head into Week 1 of the season.
Most overrated team
Texas: We’re splitting ‘Horns here. In their first year in the SEC, Texas will be a power. On the national stage, they’ve slipped — this month. Leading returning rusher C.J. Baxter is out for the season with a knee injury. Same for freshman Christian Clark, who suffered a torn Achilles. The Horns are suddenly down to four scholarship running backs. Look, I think Texas is going to compete for the SEC title and go to the playoff. But I’m having a hard time putting it in the top four. Does anyone else think the schedule is daunting — Michigan, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas A&M? The Horns are back but they’re not that back. — Dennis Dodd
Missouri: The Tigers took two big steps forward last season by going from six wins to 11 with a campaign capped by a Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State. Now comes the step back. The Tigers lost defensive coordinator Blake Baker to LSU and five draft picks from that side of the ball. While a prolific offense should have no problem putting up monster numbers against a weak schedule, Mizzou could be exposed if/when it has to face the SEC’s best. — David Cobb
Ole Miss: When I saw Ole Miss in the top 10 to start the season, I thought that was too high. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Rebels will be a pretty good team, but I see them coming up short as a CFP contender. Their schedule gives them a chance to post a high number of wins, but even if their only losses are at LSU and home to Georgia, the competition for playoff spots and their relatively soft schedule will leave them out. I am not ready to trust the Rebels’ defense to keep them out of the kind of shootouts they were able to win last season. — Jerry Palm (Tom Fornelli, Chip Patterson)
Michigan: Michigan certainly deserves some reverence for what it accomplished last year, which is a big reason why it came in at No. 9 in the AP Top 25. But the Wolverines don’t look like a traditional preseason top-10 team. They’re replacing the coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and 18 starters that led them to that 15-0 record. On top of that, Michigan has to play three of the top four teams in that same AP poll. Even its Week 1 showdown against Fresno State can’t be considered a true tune-up game with Texas looming the week after. It seems like it’ll be an uphill battle for the Wolverines to maintain their top-10 ranking — and thus a spot in the College Football Playoff — like many preseason lookaheads have projected. — Will Backus (Shehan Jeyarajah, Richard Johnson)
Most underrated team
SMU: Call me crazy, but I don’t think SMU’s jump to the ACC is going to be much of one. Sonny Dykes and Rhett Lashlee have carefully built this program up to Power Four level. The Mustangs get Florida State at home. Their toughest road game is at Louisville a week later. No Clemson. Everybody has seemed to have dismissed that Lashlee has kept this thing cooking after Dykes’ departure. Last year’s 11-3 team that won the American was arguably SMU’s best since the 1980s. Fourteen starters return to a program that finished in the top 11 in scoring offense and defense. Watch Miami transfer tailback Brashard Smith, who caught 69 passes in three years with the Hurricanes. Last year, he scored rushing, receiving and special teams touchdowns. — Dodd
Tennessee: Quarterback remains the most important position in the sport, and I believe Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava has a chance to be the best one in the country. When you combine his skill set with a Tennessee offense that’s always prolific, and then mix in a defense that could prove to be excellent itself, and you have the ingredients of a team that could surprise a lot of people. Don’t be shocked if the Volunteers are in Atlanta playing for an SEC title come December. — Fornelli
UCF: It shouldn’t take too much imagination to picture how the pieces will come together for Gus Malzahn on offense. KJ Jefferson is the type of dynamic quarterback that Gus can thrive with, and the offensive backfield has real balance with 1,400-yard rusher R.J. Harvey back in the fold and former Toledo standout Peny Boone joining the running back room this summer. While I’m not picking the Knights to contend for a Big 12 title this year, I think they could finish the season in the mix for fifth place, and that’s a few spots higher than the media poll from last month. — Patterson
NC State: The Wolfpack have been so close to national relevance over the past few years, and 2024 will be the season they finally break through. Defensively, this program is a machine, posting a top-three ACC scoring defense each of the past three seasons. Offensively, NC State is wildly intriguing. The transfer portal additions of quarterback Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina) and receiver Noah Rogers (Ohio State) get the bulk of the attention, but my eyes are really on RB Jordan Waters, who posted 819 yards and 12 touchdowns at Duke a year ago. Getting to nine wins with all the moving pieces last year was a real feat, and coach Dave Doeren is ready for more in 2024. — Jeyarajah
Rutgers: With a schedule that somehow misses Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State, the Scarlet Knights are actually in prime position for easy bowl eligibility — don’t laugh. Rutgers has the best running back you probably haven’t heard of in Kyle Monangai. This team will ride him to actual sustained success for the first time since, well, Greg Schiano’s last run in Piscataway, New Jersey. — Johnson
Miami: The ‘Canes have been a punchline over the last couple decades for posting just one 10-win season since joining the ACC in 2004. But Texas was a punchline, too, until the Longhorns finally broke through last season in Year 3 under coach Steve Sarkisian. Now in Year 3 under coach Mario Cristobal, the ‘Canes are positioned to finally make it “back” as well. The roster is oozing with talent on both sides of the ball, and Cristobal finally has continuity in scheme with both coordinators back. With Florida State in a retooling season and Clemson operating below its 2015-19 standard, it’s Miami’s time to shine in the ACC and nationally. — Cobb
Texas A&M: Mike Elko takes over at Texas A&M after a successful run at Duke and should be a breath of fresh air the program needs after stagnating under Jimbo Fisher. Elko should send a thank you note to the SEC office for his gift of a first-year schedule. If you want to make a run at the College Football Playoff, you couldn’t ask for a better one. They have some highly ranked teams like Missouri and Texas, along with a season opener vs. Notre Dame, but all of those games are at home. In fact, all of their most difficult games will be played at Kyle Field. Games at Auburn and Florida will not be pushovers, but they may only have to win one of those for a CFP berth. — Palm
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State had its fair share of ups and downs last year — it doesn’t get much worse than a 33-7 loss to South Alabama — but still made it to the Big 12 Championship Game and returns 21 starters from that same team. You expect me to believe the Cowboys will finish third in their own conference? There’s something to be said about continuity in college football. Especially when you return the best running back (Ollie Gordon II) in the nation and all five offensive linemen that blocked for him en route to the Doak Walker Award. Maybe Oklahoma State doesn’t win the Big 12. It very much could, though Utah’s going to be hard to beat. No matter what, the Cowboys do have all the makings of a team that will win double-digit games in the regular season. That would put them right in the College Football Playoff conversation. — Backus
College Football Playoff predictions
Top four conference champions (first-round byes)
Rest of field (Nos. 5-12)
2024 national champion
Ohio State: I’m not overthinking this. There’s a strong argument to be made Ohio State is the most talented team in the country. The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded on defense and added Caleb Downs via the transfer portal. On offense, they went in and got QB Will Howard from Kansas State and RB Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss. Sure, it’s not a perfect team. There are concerns about the offensive line, but we can nitpick every team in the country. It’s been a long three years in Columbus with the Buckeyes falling short of Michigan, but this is the season Ryan Day — with help from offensive coordinator Chip Kelly — and the Buckeyes get back to the top. — Fornelli (Jeyarajah, Johnson)
Georgia: The expansion of the College Football Playoff did not expand the number of teams that can win it all; it only expanded the number of teams who can have false hope. By adding more games to the postseason schedule, all organizers have done is create a greater test of depth and talent under pressure situations, so I’m going with the team that is the most stocked in terms of both depth and talent. While Georgia does not have all of the same kind of pieces that it had during its back-to-back title run, the Bulldogs have elevated at quarterback with Carson Beck. That, plus the chip on the shoulder that has become evident from missing out on the playoff last year, has me giving the Dawgs the nod to get back to the top of the mountain. — Patterson (Dodd, Cobb, Palm, Backus)
Coach of the Year
Chris Klieman, Kansas State: Klieman has been the perfect coach to follow Bill Snyder. The former North Dakota State head man was quick to realize K-State is a developmental program, one that bloodies the opponents’ nose. Klieman’s experience at the FCS level allowed him to coach up three-star players into starters. In five seasons, he has won 62% of his games and a conference title. Someone has to win the Big 12. That team will probably be one that has never accomplished something like this — that is play for a national championship in the expanded playoff. If the Wildcats don’t win the Big 12, they’ll be playing for it with at least 10 wins. — Dodd
Josh Heupel, Tennessee: The way the coach of the year Awards works is it’s never given to the coach of the best team. Instead, it goes to the coach of the team who exceeded expectations, and I expect Tennessee will do just that in 2024. Heupel’s Vols always have prolific offenses, and this year he’ll have his most talented QB yet. The Vols can win the SEC, and if they come close, Heupel will receive plenty of love. — Fornelli
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama: One of the hardest things to do in all of sports is to be “the guy after the guy,” and that’s exactly what DeBoer signed up for when agreeing to be the next Alabama coach after Nick Saban. We can quantify the many ways that pressure plays a role in his debut season with the Crimson Tide, but should he navigate it successfully — which I think he will — and keep Alabama in the thick of the SEC title race and College Football Playoff picture, it will be the best coaching job of the season. — Patterson
Kyle Whittingham, Utah: Whittingham has been a consistent winner at Utah, but 2024 could be his magnum opus. The Utes had to pull title game upsets to win both of their Pac-12 championships and finish with 9-3 regular season records. This season, the Utes will be the team to beat from beginning to end to finish with their first 12-win season as a power-conference member and earn a top-four ranking in the College Football Playoff, and not just because of the auto-bid. Whittingham has flirted with retirement in recent years, and the combination of success and lifetime achievement will make Whittingham a popular and deserving pick. — Jeyarajah
Greg Schiano, Rutgers: There are times when the coach of the year award is basically a pat on the shoulder for a team nobody’s paying attention to in order to say congratulations. Well, nobody fits that bill better than Rutgers, and Schiano’s proven he can extract blood from stones at this specific school better than just about anyone. If he gets this thing to eight wins, the choice is simple. — Johnson
Dan Lanning, Oregon: Lanning has placed Oregon on a steady upward trajectory since arriving to replace Mario Cristobal after the 2021 season. The Ducks improved from 10-3 in his first year to 12-2 last year and are now poised to take another step as they enter the Big Ten. Both his coordinators are back, and Dillon Gabriel is the perfect replacement for Bo Nix at quarterback. Not only is Lanning a winner, which is the most important criteria here, but he’s also young, charismatic and quotable, all of which will help his coach of the year candidacy during what’s expected to be a special season for Oregon. — Cobb
Kirby Smart, Georgia: Typically, national coach of the year awards go to coaches of teams that overachieve. There will surely be some candidates like that this season. However, Georgia, which has been the dominant team in college football of late, missed the College Football Playoff last season and faces a tougher SEC this season after the addition of Texas and Oklahoma. The Longhorns figure to be a competitor for the league title immediately. I am predicting Georgia to not only win the league but the national championship again this season. That should be enough for Smart to win the national coach of the year. — Palm
Ryan Day, Ohio State: Not saying that Day is anywhere near the hot seat, but few coaches face more pressure to perform in 2024. There’s certainly the feeling that despite posting three straight 11-win seasons, Day’s teams have left a lot on the table. The perennial expectation is that Ohio State is winning Big Ten titles, at the bare minimum. It’ll need to snap a three-game losing streak to Michigan and hold off newcomer Oregon to reach that goal. This is my way of saying that Day will do just that, thriving under the aforementioned pressure while taking his team all the way to the College Football Playoff National Championship. — Backus
Heisman Trophy winner
Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee: If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m pretty high on Tennessee heading into the season. The 2024 Heisman race is as wide open as any I can remember in recent years, and at this time last season, nobody would’ve predicted LSU’s Jayden Daniels would have the season he did. It’s the kind of season I believe Iamaleava can have. Look at the numbers Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker were able to post in this offense. Nico is more talented than both and has a chance to rewrite the record books in Knoxville. If he does, and Tennessee wins games because of it, Nico will garner plenty of Heisman love. — Fornelli
Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama: Looking back at the list of Heisman Trophy winners in the College Football Playoff era, two trends emerge. The winner tends to be a statistical freak and typically on a team contending for the College Football Playoff. Simply put, there is no player on a team in the preseason top 10 positioned to be freakier statistically than Milroe. The junior was slightly inconsistent in his first season as a starter but still cleared 3,000 total yards and 35 touchdowns. DeBoer is a quarterback wizard and should truly unlock Milroe’s vast potential in a way that stands above the other top contenders. — Jeyarajah (Patterson, Cobb)
Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado: Travis Hunter is the best football player pound-for-pound in the country, it’s really just as simple as that. Not only does he have great skills and movememnt ability, his instincts and mental acuity are tremendous as well. If he continues his dual-threat prowess over the course of the season and stays healthy, the feat will be nothing short of Herculean and it’ll be very clear that he’s the most outstanding player of the year. — Johnson
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon: Gabriel has thrown for fewer than 3,000 yards just once in a full season as a starting quarterback, and even then he had 24 touchdowns passing to just six interceptions. Now, he steps into an offensive system that transformed Bo Nix from Auburn castoff into the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Gabriel might not be the flashiest passer, but he’s going to put up gaudy numbers in a loaded offense on a team that will compete for both the Big Ten title and a top-six spot in the College Football Playoff. That production and visibility add up to an honored spot in New York. — Backus (Dodd, Palm)
