Week 1 CFB Line Movement and Weekend Bets from the T-Shoe Index
I believe one of the most valuable tools you can have in your handicapping toolbox is the ability (and willingness) to evaluate line movement (both sides and totals) to understand the context of the current numbers. My personal general rule of thumb is that if one side has moved in my favor by 2 or more points (assuming it's not a 40 point spread), I probably won't bet on that side even if the T-Shoe Index indicates value on the current numbers, because it's wise to respect the oddsmakers' opening numbers, which are basically just algorithmic predictions with a little line shading sprinkled in on either side based on expected action. With that in mind, I place my bets right after the opening early in the week, then reassess the market on Thursday to see where the line has moved using the TSI and what new values may have opened up.
The Northwestern vs Miami game is a perfect example. Last week I bet the under 43 and the line is now down to 39.5. My guess is 37, but it would not be wise to continue betting the under or to give away the under after the line has moved 3.5 points in my favor. At this point, I would stay away unless I already had a good bet in hand. Using this concept, let's see where the lines have moved for Week 1 of the college football season and see if we can add them to our portfolio.
The line started with San Jose State favored by 7.5 points, pretty close to the TSI projected line of 9.5. But as the 4.5 point line dropped to -3, I went through key numbers 7, 6 and landed on key 3 for my initial number favorite. My colleague Brad Powers, a professional bettor and VSiN contributor, always publishes results on lines that move 3 or more points from the Circa opening round. If you are in the habit of betting after the line moves 3 or more points, you will lose a lot of money in the long run. We are going to leave it to luck here.
Betting: San Jose State -3
With Fran Brown as head coach, Kyle McCord at quarterback, and the easiest Power 4 schedule in the country, it seems like everyone has jumped on the Syracuse bandwagon this summer. All of these factors are certainly valid and reasons for optimism in New York, but it doesn't change the fact that this game started out as a -13 for Syracuse, which is exactly what TSI projected this game to be, with Circa betting up to 18.5 and the consensus at 17.5. Again, this is big line movement across the somewhat significant numbers of 14 and 17, so I think the Bobcats are worth a bet here, despite losing their star QB to Indiana in the offseason.
Betting: Ohio +17.5
I know, I know. We all saw Florida State get physically dominated by Georgia Tech in Week 0 and that certainly resulted in a downgrade in my ratings. But the line started the summer at -23 for Florida State and when you consolidate one data point it drops to -16.5, while BC is training a new head coach and has a QB who isn't known for lighting up the world with his arm. I think this is a massive overreaction considering Georgia Tech could have a pretty decent record this year. TSI projects FSU at -18, so getting below the 17 key is key here.
Betting: Florida State -16.5
Bonus FCS bets:
Missouri State University +15.5
Lehigh +33.5
Bucknell +33.5
Holy Cross/Rhode Island 54.5+
