Our MLB experts expect the Diamondbacks to build on Wednesday night's dramatic win over the Mets in the series finale on Thursday afternoon, with Arizona's lineup giving New York starter David Peterson a hard time.
August 29, 2024 • 11:26 ET • 4 min read
With the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets both in playoff contention as the season nears its final month, there's a lot at stake when the series decides this afternoon at Chase Field.
Last night, Corbin Carroll was the hero with a late grand slam in Arizona's 8-5 win, and today will feature a pitching matchup between David Peterson and Ryne Nelson.
In my Mets vs Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks, I will go into detail on why I think the home team has the advantage in the game on Thursday, August 29th.
Mets vs Diamondbacks predictions
My best bet
Diamondbacks Money Line (-116 on FanDuel)
My Analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks are riding a wave of clutch hitting and quality starts that will put them on the verge of chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title, and it goes without saying that a 2023 World Series appearance is no fluke.
Arizona is riding a wave of momentum at the right time after winning seven of their last eight games, and I expect the home team to add to their tally today.
The Diamondbacks are a strong team at home, going 38-27 at Chase Field in 2024 and covering the score line in 41 of their past 68 games, which puts them in the running for the championship heading into the final stretch of the regular season.
The team also has Ryne Nelson 4-1 in his past five starts, including a 12-2 win over the Boston Red Sox last week. The Arizona right-hander is in just his second season as a starter, but he has improved after a shaky first half of the season, posting an impressive 2.41 ERA in July and a 3.28 ERA so far in August.
It won't be easy for the home team to score against New York Mets starter David Peterson, who is 8-1 this season with an ERA of 2.85, but Arizona's lineup, which ranks second in the National League in hits, has plenty of offensive firepower.
It's also worth noting that Peterson has struggled against the Diamondbacks in his career, posting a 6.75 ERA in four appearances.
The Diamondbacks cannot afford any mistakes heading into this big weekend series against the Dodgers, so I expect the home team to come out victorious here.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks Money Line
David Peterson: <4.5 strikeouts
8.5 and above
With Arizona's lineup playing well, I'm going to lower my strikeout estimate for Peterson this afternoon. The Mets left-hander has been great this month, but he's not entirely reliant on strikeouts to frustrate opponents.
Peterson has fallen short of five strikeouts in three of his past five games, including last weekend against the San Diego Padres, when he struck out just two in 7 1/3 innings.
The Diamondbacks are the third-fewest team in the National League in strikeouts, so we're banking on their discipline at the plate and their ability to catch the ball.
The Over is also an attractive bet. Arizona leads the NL in runs scored and New York is fifth. They have a good starting pitching staff, but this afternoon is shaping up to be another high-scoring, thrilling game with pressure on the line from the get-go.
The Mets have won 71 of their last 124 games with a team total over, while the power-hitting Diamondbacks have won 74-53 this year.
Learn how to bet on parlays on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Diamondbacks odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks live odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks opening odds
Money Line: New York +104 | Arizona -112 Run Line: New York +1.5 | Arizona -1.5 Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Money Line and Over/Under Analysis
The Diamondbacks will have a slight edge against the Mets, who will be using their home field advantage to try and close the gap on the National League Wild Card spot. The teams are 3-3 in their six meetings in 2024, but Arizona has won three of their past four meetings. Expect both offenses to be fired up again after scoring a combined 24 runs in the first two games of this series, with the Diamondbacks averaging 5.35 runs per game this year. The over has gone past each of the last five meetings between these two teams, with three of those games seeing at least 13 runs scored.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Trends
The Diamondbacks' run to the playoffs isn't just a hot streak, they've won 51 of their last 76 games. See more Mets vs Diamondbacks MLB betting trends.
Mets vs Diamondbacks game info
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona Date and Time: Thursday, August 29, 2024 First Pitch: 3:40 PM ET TV: SNY, ARID Mets Starting Pitcher: David Peterson
(8-1, 2.85 ERA) Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
(9 wins, 6 losses, 4.29 ERA)
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