The Kansas City Royals (75-59) and Houston Astros (71-62) meet on Thursday for a fourth-game series, with first pitch at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 PM ET. Break down FanDuel Sportsbook's lines on Royals vs. Astros odds and make your best betting predictions and forecasts from MLB experts.
Season series: Royals lead 3-0
The Royals are in top form and are coming off a big win over the Cleveland Guardians in a four-game series. Kansas City has won three of those games to improve to 10-4 since Aug. 14 and sit just one game behind Cleveland in the AL Central division race.
Houston is home after a 3-4 road trip that included trips to Baltimore and Philadelphia. The Astros went 11-1 from Aug. 6-19 but are just 3-6 since then. In those nine games, the team has lost three games by one run.
Predicted starting lineup for Royals vs. Astros
RHP Brady Singer vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Singer (9-9, 3.38 ERA) is making his 27th start and has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 146 2/3 innings.
Last time he pitched: Saturday's 11-2 home loss against the Philadelphia Phillies, pitching five innings, giving up five runs, 11 hits, zero walks and five strikeouts Career record with the Astros: 1-2 in four starts, with a 4.57 ERA (21 2/3 innings, 11 ERA), a 1.57 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts in nine innings In his last four starts, he has allowed a 6.23 ERA and a .885 OPS.
Brown (11-7, 3.72 ERA) is making his 26th start and has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 140 1/3 innings.
Last appearance: No decision, 7-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, 6 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts Career record with Royals: 0-2 in 2 starts, 36.82 ERA (3 2/3 innings, 15 runs), 17 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
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Royals vs Astros odds
Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For the complete list, visit the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.
Money Line: Royals +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Astros -156 (bet $156 to win $100) Run Line (RL)/Agzaspread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-162) | Astros -1.5 (+134) Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -104 | U: -118)
Royals vs Astros predictions and forecasts
prediction
Astros 4, Royals 3
Money Line
Looking at the team as a whole, the up-and-coming Royals are averaging a .560 winning percentage and are now overachieving in a few games, while the Astros seem to be swinging in the opposite direction a bit, as they are underachieving with 4.56 runs allowed (RPG) per game and 3.98 RPG.
Although perhaps to a lesser extent, the evaluation of starters this time around is consistent with the team’s framework.
Houston hasn't had a good record at home lately (7-8 in their last 15 games) and Braun starts after throwing a season-high 107 pitches, but the Astros are a worthy team.
Betting on Houston (-156).
Against run line/spread
In this case, I think ML is more valuable. Pass.
Over/Under
The point total has been under in six of Houston's last nine home games.
The Royals' offense has declined significantly. Their rebound percentage of 4.88 isn't fully supported by analytics. Bet the Under 8 (-118) on a matchup with solid pitching staffs.
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