EFE
National Conference supporters celebrate party's victory in Jammu and Kashmir
The northern Indian state of Haryana and Indian-administered Kashmir sprung surprises on Tuesday as votes were counted there in parliamentary elections.
Most exit polls predicted a hung assembly in Kashmir, but an alliance between the main opposition Congress and the National Conference Party (NCP) is on course for a landslide victory in in the 90-member House of Representatives and on the verge of forming a government.
In Haryana, which also has 90 seats, predictions of a landslide Congress victory were contradicted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), proving pollsters wrong.
The BJP-led government appears set to return for a rare third consecutive term in Haryana.
The Kashmir polls are significant because they are the first parliamentary elections in a decade – and also the first since the federal government revoked the region's autonomy and transformed the erstwhile state into a federally governed territory in 2019.
Unlike Kashmir – over which India and its neighbor Pakistan have fought wars – Haryana does not often make global headlines.
But this small state gets a lot of attention in India because it is next to the capital, Delhi. Along with Punjab, it is nicknamed the breadbasket of India due to its large wheat and rice farms, and the city of Gurugram is home to the offices of some of the world's biggest brands such as Google, Dell and Samsung.
The results are being closely followed in India, as they are the first National Assembly polls since the summer parliamentary elections. Analysts say Tuesday's results will set the tone as the country heads towards more regional elections, including in the states of Maharashtra and Delhi, in the coming months.
PTI
Modi's BJP set to return for third term to power in Haryana
So what happened in Haryana?
Perhaps the best description of what happened in the state comes from political scientist Sandeep Shastri.
“The Congress has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” he told the BBC.
For weeks, political circles had been abuzz that the BJP was facing a huge wave of opposition to power and analysts were confidently asserting that the party government was on the verge of exit.
After most post-election exit polls predicted a landslide Congress victory, many said it was an election the party had to lose.
Shastri attributes the Congress's defeat to overconfidence and infighting within the party.
“They were convinced they would win and became complacent. The BJP, on the other hand, worked on issues quietly on the ground and successfully fought against the ruling power to return to power.
Both parties, he said, tried to form social coalitions by bringing different caste groups together – the results show that the majority chose to support the BJP.
Shastri says the differences between two senior Congress leaders – Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, who were contenders for the post of chief minister – did not go down well with voters.
Tuesday's count, however, was mired in controversy, with the Congress accusing the Election Commission (EC) of delaying updating the figures on its website.
After party leader Jairam Ramesh filed a complaint letter with the Election Commission, Selja said his party could still win.
“I’m telling you…something’s happening. If all goes well, the Congress will form the government in Haryana,” she said.
But with the numbers not on their side, this will likely remain a dream.
The EC denied these allegations.
Reuters
Analysts say the results will set the tone as the country heads towards more regional elections.
Nobody thought Kashmir was going to belong to the BJP
In the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, the Hindu nationalist BJP party enjoys little support, but it enjoys immense goodwill in the Hindu-majority Jammu region. And the results reflect this divide. But the Congress-NC alliance has enough seats and is set to form a government in the state.
The Modi government's decision in 2019 to repeal Article 370 of the constitution, which granted special status to Kashmir, and bifurcate the state into two, sent shockwaves through the valley, which elected 47 seats to the Assembly.
During his election rallies, Modi promised to restore “statehood” to the region. But as the results show, that failed to appease angry voters.
The region saw a surprisingly high turnout – but as political analyst Sheikh Showkat Hussain says, they were voting against the BJP and the revocation of the region's special status.
“The BJP has made this election a sort of referendum on its decision (to revoke Article 370). However, people voted in favor of the position taken by the regional parties,” he said.
Noor Mohammad Baba, another Kashmir political analyst, says the results reveal that “the BJP's policies were not popular” in the region.
“The result is a message to Delhi that they need to change their policy towards Jammu and Kashmir,” he added.
A surprising result of the election was the poor performance of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), led by former Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti.
The mufti, who previously ruled in coalition with the BJP, managed to win only three seats.
Responding to a question about her party's poor performance, she said it was “the people's choice”.
“Winning or losing is part of politics. People think that the Congress and National Conference will give them a stable government and keep the BJP at bay. We respect their verdict,” she added.
Additional reporting by Auqib Javeed in Srinagar
