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Cambodian Navy personnel patrol Ream Naval Base, located in the Gulf of Thailand.
Two gray shapes, visible from satellites for most of this year at Cambodia's Ream naval base, appear to confirm growing fears in Washington that China is expanding its military footprint beyond the three disputed islands in the Sea of Southern China which it has already seized and fortified.
They are Chinese Navy Type 056A corvettes – 1,500-ton warships – and they have been moored next to a new Chinese-built dock large enough to accommodate much larger vessels. On land, there are other facilities, also built by China, which would be for the Chinese navy.
The Cambodian government has repeatedly denied such a possibility, citing its constitution which prohibits any permanent foreign military presence and stating that Ream is open for use by all friendly navies.
“Please understand that this is a Cambodian base and not a Chinese one,” said Seun Sam, a political analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia. “Cambodia is very small and our military capabilities are limited.
“We need more training from external friends, especially from China.”
But others observe the situation with suspicion.
Satellite images show the development of a large pier at Ream
For all the talk about China's rapid rise in maritime power – the country now has more ships in its navy than the United States – China currently has only one overseas military base, in African state of Djibouti, which she built in 2016.
The United States, by contrast, has about 750, including one also in Djibouti and many others in countries close to China like Japan and South Korea.
The United States, however, believes that the imbalance is changing due to China's stated ambition to become a global military power. That's not to mention the scale of its overseas infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative, which under Chinese law must be built to military standards.
Some in Washington predict that China will eventually have a global network of bases, or civilian ports, that it can use as bases. And one of the first of them is Ream.
Heated ties
Until a few years ago, Ream – which is at the southern tip of Cambodia – was being modernized with American help; part of the tens of millions of dollars in annual military aid provided to Cambodia. But the United States reduced that aid after 2017, when Cambodia's main opposition party was banned and its leaders exiled or imprisoned.
Already increasingly dependent on Chinese aid and investment, the Cambodian government abruptly changed partners. It canceled regular joint military exercises with the United States and opted for the so-called Golden Dragon exercises that it now organizes with China.
By 2020, two US-funded buildings in Ream had been demolished and a vast Chinese-funded expansion of the facilities had begun. By the end of last year, the new pier had been built. It was almost identical to the 363 meter long pier at the Djibouti base, and long enough to accommodate China's largest aircraft carrier.
Soon both corvettes were docked at Ream – and either they or identical replacements remained there for most of that year.
Cambodia says the ships are for training and preparation for this year's Golden Dragon exercises. It also says China is building two new 056A corvettes for its own navy and insists the Chinese presence at Ream is not permanent and therefore does not count as a base.
That hasn't stopped U.S. officials from expressing concern about the expansion of the site, which satellite photographs show includes, in addition to the new pier, a new dry dock, warehouses and what looks like administrative offices and housing with four basketball courts.
Cambodia, whose constitution prohibits any permanent foreign military presence, says the Ream site is not a base
In 2019, the Wall Street Journal reported on what it called a leak of a deal between Cambodia and China to lease 77 hectares of the base for 30 years. This would have included the stationing of military personnel and weapons.
The Cambodian government has called this information fake news, but it is worth noting that only Chinese warships have so far been allowed to dock at the new pier. Two Japanese destroyers visiting in February were instead invited to dock in the nearby town of Sihanoukville.
Even if the Chinese presence began to become more permanent and exclusive, some analysts doubt it would violate the Cambodian constitution.
It is technically true that Ream is not a permanent base. And even though its expansion is financed by China, the base itself is not leased to China, said Kirsten Gunness, a senior policy researcher at the California-based Rand Corporation.
“We are seeing a trend where Chinese ships are continually docked (at Ream),” she said. “One way to get around the constitutional ban is not to call it a foreign base, but to allow foreign forces continued access on a rotational basis. “
The United States and the Philippines operate under similar agreements, Gunness added.
Fears aside
Most analysts believe that a long-term Chinese presence in Ream would offer very little real benefit to China. They highlight the three bases it has already built on Mischief, Fiery Cross and Subi Reefs in the South China Sea, as well as the formidable naval forces it maintains on its southern coast.
But a Chinese base in Ream, at the mouth of the Gulf of Thailand, worries Cambodia's neighbors, Thailand and Vietnam. Along with other bases further north, it could be seen as China's attempt to encircle Vietnam's long coastline.
Like the Philippines, Vietnam disputes China's claims to almost all of the South China Sea islands, and its forces have clashed with China's in the past.
Thai national security officials have also privately expressed concern about a Chinese base just south of the Thai navy's main port at Sattahip, covering their exit from the Gulf of Thailand. After all, Thailand and Cambodia still have unresolved territorial disputes.
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China's Ream base is worrying Cambodia's neighbors amid escalating naval conflicts in places like the South China Sea.
However, neither country is likely to publicly voice these complaints. Thailand will want to avoid causing repercussions in its economically vital relationship with China, while Vietnam will want to avoid stoking anti-Vietnamese sentiment in Cambodia. Public resentment towards China in Vietnam, where such feelings are never far from the surface, is also something the Vietnamese government will want to avoid.
American and Indian strategists, meanwhile, are more concerned about the future possibility of a Chinese base in the Indian Ocean – such as the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota, for which a Chinese state-owned company has acquired a 99% lease. years in 2017, or the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Gwadar port in Pakistan, which was also redeveloped with Chinese funding.
But these prospects still remain very distant. Few analysts believe China will be able to match the global military might of the United States for many years to come.
“The Ream base doesn't add much in terms of power projection – it doesn't get the Chinese navy any closer to where it wants to go,” said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. of CSIS.
This could make a big difference in intelligence gathering, tracking satellites and detecting or monitoring long-range targets.
“These are not necessarily the best options for China,” Mr. Poling added. “But these are the only ones offered.”
