For nearly 35 years, Wyoming entrepreneur Alan Chadwick has run his business importing clothing from China and selling Western-style clothing to stores serving “working cowboys” in the United States.
Today, as former President Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge to impose a 10 to 20 percent tariff on all goods entering the country, or a border tax, that would amount to 60% for products from China, Chadwick must radically rethink his approach. strategy.
The 66-year-old is considering moving manufacturing of his products, like wool snap button shirts and canvas jackets, to India or Pakistan — or perhaps closing his Wyoming Traders business, which employs 16 people, and retire completely.
Chadwick said the tariffs were a “tax on the American people” and warned that the expense for a company like his to open a factory in the United States was unrealistic.
But as he prepares to vote, he hopes to swallow his misgivings about tariffs in favor of other priorities, such as illegal immigration and opposition to abortion.
“I will vote for Trump even though he will hurt our business if he does what he says he is going to do,” he said.
Wyoming traders
Alan Chadwick at a trade show
Chadwick's willingness to move beyond Trump's views on tariffs is a sign of the conflicting impulses shaping American politics.
The Republican agenda has led America — once the world's champion of free trade — to adopt policies designed to protect American businesses and jobs from foreign competition, despite the potential economic downsides.
During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on thousands of products from China – measures that President Joe Biden, although he criticized before entering the White House, has maintained place.
This year, the Republican has placed plans for drastic customs duties at the center of his presidential campaign, calling them “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
He says his plans — which analysts say could return the average price of imports to their highest level in at least 50 years — will spur job creation, reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing, raise wages and enable to raise billions of dollars from other countries.
“We're going to become a tariff nation. It's not going to cost you, it's going to cost another country,” he said along the way.
His claims are rejected by most mainstream economists, who say the policy would do little to grow U.S. jobs, while raising costs for ordinary Americans and slowing global growth.
Getty Images
Donald Trump started a trade war with China in 2018
In the United States, the Tax Foundation predicts that tariffs would reduce overall employment by 684,000 people and reduce GDP by 0.8% – and that's without taking into account almost certain retaliation from other countries.
For a typical American household, costs would increase by at least $1,700, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, one of the lowest estimates available.
“It’s absurd,” economist Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said of Trump’s promises. “It’s not the panacea people are hoping for.”
Despite these warnings, some polls indicate that Trump's ideas are resonating: A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September found that 56% of likely voters favored the Republican's tariff plans.
Kyle Plesa, a 39-year-old Trump voter in Miami, Florida, said he didn't think the tariffs would have exactly the impact the candidate promised, but that the Republican's focus on pitfalls of globalization had struck a chord.
“People are upset and I think Trump is at least taking care of that,” he said.
“I would probably rather protect businesses and pay a little more due to tariffs than deal with the current state of inflation and raise taxes from the left,” he added.
Kyle Plesa
Kyle Plesa
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris attacked Trump's tariff expansion plans as a “national sales tax,” promising a more targeted approach.
But Trump has said money from the tariffs could enable significant tax cuts – at times floating the idea of eliminating the income tax altogether.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden's decision to maintain Trump's tariffs on China – and extend them to products such as electric vehicles – also allowed the Republican to claim a political victory.
Biden has also endorsed other protectionist policies, such as historic government spending aimed at boosting manufacturing in sectors such as semiconductors and green energy.
He and Harris, like Trump, opposed the takeover of US Steel by a Japanese company on national security grounds, sparking fear of foreign investment in the business community.
Michael Froman, who served as U.S. trade representative under former President Barack Obama, said Washington's reliance on tools such as tariffs and restrictions on foreign investment was “probably here to stay.”
“There is certainly less enthusiasm for pursuing what we might call a positive trade agenda in terms of liberalization, opening up and reducing barriers,” he said. “We just have to recognize that none of these policies are truly free. They all impose some sort of compromise.”
“Customs tariffs have not helped restore employment”
Jacques
Jason Trice
Jason Trice, co-chief executive officer of Jasco, an Oklahoma-based lighting and electronics company that sells to large retailers such as Walmart, said his company's experience shows the damage tariffs can cause.
Since 2019, it has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in tariffs while transforming its supply chain, moving the bulk of its production from China to countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
He said the changes made his business less efficient and increased costs by about 10 to 15 percent, which he passed on to retailers, raising prices and contributing to inflation.
All of this has had detrimental consequences on his business, which has seen its revenues fall by 25% since 2020 and its workforce fall, through attrition, from 500 to 350.
“In 50 years of business, the Chinese government has never done anything as damaging to our business as what the Trump administration did,” Trice said. “Tariffs have not helped bring jobs back to America. reduced employment opportunities.
Lucerne International
Mary Buchzeiger (center) with her team at the international warehouse in Lucerne
Lucerne International, a Michigan-based auto parts supplier that has manufactured in China for decades, has also spent recent years adapting to the new climate.
With the help of government incentives, the company is now working to open its first factory in its home state in 2026, which is expected to create more than 300 jobs over four years.
But even though the project may look like the kind of successful “reshoring” that politicians in both parties want to see, Executive Director Mary Buchzeiger, a longtime Republican, said it was a mistake on the part of the U.S. to try to “build walls” against their country. rivals.
“I don’t think tariffs are a long-term solution,” she said.
“All we’re going to do is continue to make ourselves uncompetitive globally.”
Michelle Fleury contributed to this report
North American correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his biweekly newsletter US Election Unspun. UK readers can subscribe here. Those outside the UK can register here.
